New German Opening?

There’s a difference between no cost units and valuable units.

Every unit you have on the board at the start of the game is no cost.  However, England has a dire need for its air force, any early hits you can give them on their RAF is a far more significant gain then 10 IPCs to Germany.  Likewise, any German armor you can knock out early in the game makes Russia’s life easier. (Armor routinely ends up being THE anchor for the advancing Germans.  Therefore, if they have LESS armor, then Russia is BETTER able to counter attack.)

Meanwhile, the Baltic fleet is no cost and no value other then the opportunity to kill some British planes in the first round of warfare.  I’ll trade you 2 submarines, transport and destroyer from the Baltic fleet for 2 British fighters in round 1 any day!

While many folks disagree with the G1 AC purchase, I have found that it is a solid G1 buy that gains Germany significant TIME before they are forced back into Berlin in a KGF game.

It prevents the UK destruction of the Baltic Fleet on UK1, and makes UK spend cash early on in the defense of London, as well as possibly drawing US forces that otherwise would be bound for Africa to London.

In the next rounds, it forces UK to go “the long way around” to get to Eastern instead of direct landings via SZ5.

Also, as far as a fleet move to SZ7…
Not sure if anyone posted the odds on this or not…
UK1 attack on German Fleet in SZ7:
UK Forces:  2 TRN, 1 BB, 2 FIG, 1 BOM
German forces:  1 TRN, 3 SUB, 1 DST
97.1% chance of UK winning, with an average of 1 BB, 2 FIG, 1 BOM remaining

Combine with a UK purchase of 1 AC (placed in SZ7 and 2 FIGs land on it), 1 TRN (also in SZ7), and BOM flying back to London.

Now on G2 the Germans can counter using 1 BB, 1 TRN, 4 FIG, 1 BOM… IF the US does not sacrifice 1 TRN to SZ12 to block the BB and TRN.

UK forces is 1 USSR SUB, 1 TRN, 1 AC, 2 FIG, 1 BB
With the Med Fleet engaged the odds are 72.9% to win w/ BB and BOM remaining (German Navy and Air Force are effectively eliminated for the remainder of the game)
With the Med Fleet blocked by a USA TRN the odds are 10% for a German win, with an average of FIG, AC, BB remaining for UK.

The odds just are NOT good for a Germany Fleet Unification unless the Allies play poorly; or unless Germany goes balls-to-the-wall to support it (massive fleet purchase on G1 that can be used in the G2 SZ7 counter, or giving up all FIG support on G1 against Russia to get 5 or 6 FIGs in range of SZ7).

And while the attempt may destroy the UK Fleet, and a USA TRN as well as the USSR Sub… What is Germany going to use for defense against the USA Fleet that is not only intact, but now unopposed as it sails to land in Africa and take control of the Med?

And then there is the UK Fleet that will be rebuilt in just 2 turns…

@Gerbilkit:

Bunnies, I feel that we are dancing around several different issues so I will try to address each one.

**You are the dancing queen, young and sweet, only seventeen
Dancing queen, feel the beat from the tambourine
You can dance, you can jive, having the time of your life
See that girl, watch that scene, dig in the dancing queen.

A dress, huh?  What else are you wearing?  hehehehe**

Anglo: Clearly this is a sore spot for Germany, and a crucial element of any strategy. Taking Africa is essential, it’s free IPCs for you and less for UK once you get past Anglo. Unfortunately I’m not seeing how this strategy is working out very well if you send in the BB + tran with another 1 inf and tank. Realistically, you should expect to end that battle with 3 tank and 1 inf on Anglo.  The UK counters with the Fighter, Bomber, and 3 infantry.  Best Germany can hope for without just hoping for good dice ( a bad strategy  :-P) is to kill all the infantry and stop the UK from getting the land. But then you just lost 3 tanks, and one of those was one of your “valuable valuable tanks from Europe”. Now if you want to do any blitzing you’ll have to rebuild at least one.

**First off, it is not “valuable valuable tanks from Europe”.  It is “valuable valuable tanks PERIOD”.  German tanks are reaaaal good, and if the G1 tanks in Anglo-Egypt survived UK1, I move them back on G4 (G2 blitz, G3 return, G4 transport).

Assuming an Africa bid and Med fleet going east, the odds are good that at least German: 1 inf 3 tank survive in Anglo-Egypt, which leads to UK1 counter 3 inf 1 fig 1 bomber possibility.  But, there IS the expensive and nasty possibility of less than German: 1 inf 3 tank surviving opening the door for a UK1 counter.  So Germany should probably actually take the artillery from S. Europe instead of a third tank.  There’s still something like a 80% chance of 4 German units in Anglo-Egypt at end of G1, with the important 2 German tanks for blitzing, if Germany uses a fighter and bomber in Anglo-Egypt.  Of course, if Russia took out Ukraine, then there won’t be a safety fighter for the Anglo-Egypt naval battle which opens up a nasty can of worms 1/12 of the time (I think it was).  Maybe a bit more than that, actually.

Anyways, with 4 German units on beginning of G1, UK has counter 3 inf 1 fig 1 bomber, with the really nice payoff of delaying German progress in Africa as described in my previous post.  But if there’s a German fighter and bomber parked in Libya, then what?  Well, I’ll tell you; I think it’s about a 40% chance that the UK loses at least one air in the process of a 1 bomber-1 fighter-3infantry clearing 4 units at Anglo-Egypt, and if an air does bite it, it has to be the UK bomber (if the UK fighter bites it, the UK bomber has to land in a territory adjacent to Anglo-Egypt which means the UK bomber dies G2.)

So.  You are QUITE RIGHT in saying that UK can still counter and often does.  Very right - and yet, I think it is STILL a worthy German attack to hit Anglo-Egypt with 3 inf 1 art 2 tank 1 fighter 1 bomber, particularly if there’s a safety fighter for the Anglo-Egypt battle.

Why?

Consider first the vast IPC differential between a UK1 clear of German-held Anglo-Egypt and UK leaving Anglo-Egypt alone on UK1 (as outlined in my previous post).  Consider then that going into the attack, Germany has a 30% plus expectation of UK dropping its bomber in the battle (80% chance of Germany holding with 4 or more units followed by 40% chance of UK needing to drop at least one air unit to clear out Anglo-Egypt.).  Then consider that Germany built no defense for the Baltic fleet (I typically go heavy inf/art purchase on G1 instead of fighters, but this still holds), and that if UK does send the UK bomber to Africa, the Baltic fleet is relatively safe against a UK attack of just 2 fighters, so will be able to either split, channel dash, or stay put to give Germany some added momentum into Karelia on G2 (since it survives UK1).

Contrast with the expected 2 German ground units in Anglo-Egypt at end of UK1 which can be counter/cleared with 3 inf 1 fighter with at least 1 UK fighter surviving 60% or so of the time, leaving the UK bomber free to fly east to mess with Japan if the UK unites its fleet, or harass Japan shipping if the UK splits its fleet, or to strafe the Baltic fleet with 2 UK fighters  (Germany of course doesn’t know what UK is going to do yet - but in any event that UK bomber is going to be useful.)**

Also if you really want an IC in India on J2 it’s not that hard to manage. The German fighter from Libya can hit Anglo on G2, and land in India on a NCM. How do you feel on the odds of 2 inf + 1 ftr vs 2 inf + ftr + aa gun?

**First, as I said, if UK pulls out of India, they take the AA gun with them.

Second, in MOST games, the UK bomber will also be in range at beginning of UK2. How do you feel about 2 inf 1 ftr 1 bomber vs 2 inf 1 ftr?**

The way it works out, there are few clear-cut definitively “correct” moves in Axis and Allies.  If you do one thing, you have to pull forces from another thing.

(edit) - seriously, if you move the UK infantry out of India, why would you NOT move out the AA gun?  It’s not like the AA gun is going to stop a Japanese tank blitz to Persia.

@Gerbilkit:

Heh heh doh, I am a noob. Never bother moving those AA guns cause I always forget about them.  :-P Course two in and a fighter on offense is still a really bad battle against 2 inf and a fighter on defense. So Japan still keeps India.

cough UK BOMBER cough

Why did I somehow think you were going to come up with something witty for that dancing comment? Anyways…

(innocent look) I have no idea.

I think there is no situation that Anglo can be held by Germany (barring good luck) if the UK really wants it back.  However taking it strongly as you said forces the bomber to come in, which allows a German fleet unification in the med.  The UK should be just about finished, after UK2, the vast majority of their infantry spent. So after G2 no opposition for the Germans.

Yeah, there is generally no opposition to the Germans after G2 in Anglo-Egypt from the direction of India.  But the Allies plan to party in Algeria, and they’re bringing US tanks to race right back through Africa.  Takes a while, of course, but as I wrote, even with additional German fighters on G1, you’re still going to run into positional problems with Germany’s Med fleet and fighters - keep them posted west where they’re not helping a lot, or move them east and let the Allies move in.

So to be honest I think my strategy now will be to take Anglo hard, and use that SZ8 sub for fodder against the BB, hopefully forcing the UK player to choose between Anglo and my fleet.  Either way I win something with no cost to me, apart from the already unavoidable UK counter on Anglo. Another transport would be helpful here, but there’s already a bid in Africa so no luck.  Well it all comes down to luck it seems, who gets luckier in Africa. Can’t say I like that but meh there it is.

**Most dice games don’t come down to just luck, but how you manage with the luck you get.  What contingency plans did you have if things went badly, and what contingency plans did you have if things went better than expected?

Anyways, I didn’t say G1 2 fig build and/or taking G1 Anglo-Egypt light were wrong.  As far as I think, they aren’t “wrong”, they aren’t “right”, they’re just a different game plan.  (Maybe one or the other really ARE “wrong” or “right”, in the sense that, say . . . leaving an unattended AA gun in India at the end of UK1 is “wrong”, but I don’t know that they are or are not.)**

Now that my strategy is getting ripped down to same old same old German standard moves it’s time to go think of something else interesting to think about. So if no one else wants to ponder some more I think I’ll call this quits. (and go back to games with NAs  :-P)

NAs, “eeurgh!”.  At least say you’re using LHTR 2.0 NAs.

@ncscswitch:

While many folks disagree with the G1 AC purchase, I have found that it is a solid G1 buy that gains Germany significant TIME before they are forced back into Berlin in a KGF game.

It prevents the UK destruction of the Baltic Fleet on UK1, and makes UK spend cash early on in the defense of London, as well as possibly drawing US forces that otherwise would be bound for Africa to London.

Agreed. I know the G1 AC purchase is hotly contested one way or the other and I can’t say if it’s right or wrong for other peeps. I will say that my gaming group knows exaaaactly how to exploit this one if you don’t. So it’s basically: “pity the fool who doesn’t AC G1… pity the fool!” It won’t last forever, but it buys you that much needed time.

I always go with the UK1 AC and TRN too. Funny to see a couple early game moves I always make posted here. That almost never happens. ~ZP

@Bunnies:

(edit) - seriously, if you move the UK infantry out of India, why would you NOT move out the AA gun?  It’s not like the AA gun is going to stop a Japanese tank blitz to Persia.

Actually it would stop a tank blitz.

However, it costs MORE and has more utility then just leaving an infantry there instead and pulling the AA gun out.  Many players like to have the gun in Caucasus freeing up a Russian gun.

@Cmdr:

@Bunnies:

(edit) - seriously, if you move the UK infantry out of India, why would you NOT move out the AA gun?  It’s not like the AA gun is going to stop a Japanese tank blitz to Persia.

Actually it would stop a tank blitz.

However, it costs MORE and has more utility then just leaving an infantry there instead and pulling the AA gun out.  Many players like to have the gun in Caucasus freeing up a Russian gun.

In context, we were talking about a J1 attack on India.  Japan doesn’t have a tank in French Indochina J1, so the Japs won’t blitz through India to Persia on J1.

Therefore, if the UK retreats from India on UK1, UK should bring its AA gun with it.

Correct.  However there is a good debate on whether or not England should leave 1 infantry as a picket in India.  If you leave 1 guy, then Japan has to dedicate 2 infantry and maybe some air power to take India, which means less forces in China.  If you pull the guy Japan can just walk in.

On the other hand, a full retreat might entice Japan to go hard into China leaving only one guy in India and thus allowing England to have two rounds of owning India (one round reclaiming it, one round before Japan can attack it again.)