What I am saying is that the gift to England of a free fighter and destroyer is better then the loss to Germany of the entire Africa Corps + lost units in other battles. It’s just a matter of finances.
Top that off with England throwing those gifts away by invading the Med allowing Germany to dictate the game from that point on, and you’re just asking for trouble. Cascade Dice Failure only applies to England in this situation. I’ve already shown how every UK 1 move is easily countered on Germany 2 through builds, position, or combats, all of which are distinctly and decidedly in Germany’s favor.
If you’re argument is the UK can do better than sailing into Sz 15, then fine, I’d probably agree with you. Infact, I like Func’s idea of messing with Japan.
I’ll also say that there is a reason why I typically won’t attack the trn in Sz 59 and counter Egy regardless of what Germany takes it with. I think you can get far more value out of your IO fleet than sacrificing it on UK 1 in various moves. One example would be a fleet unification in Sz 30.
I don’t think Germany is all that well off if UK does sail into Sz 15. Yes you can counter with certain moves and the Allies can counter back, but why not just eliminate that option by taking out Egy on G1 for relatively no cost (1-2 Ger inf).
Bid the units to Lib, buy your bom, and then channel dash to Sz 7.
I think that probably accomplishes the same thing only in this case you have/hold Egy and can immediately blitz armor on G2.
Heck with an 8-9 bid, bid all units to lib and save an IPC for Ger, buy 7 inf, 2 ftrs and then channel dash. You still get Egy and threaten Sz 7 on G2 with 7 ftrs, 1 bom and any potential submerged subs that live to G2.
Even if UK does counter Egy you can take that back and Trj on G2 and you’ve just killed 3 more (4 if inf in Trj) UK ME inf. Japan picks off the other guy in Ind and take China heavy and you can potentially be looking at a J IC on Ind in rd 2, certainly in rd 3.