I have 1 ground unit must survive and AA Activated.
Only thing that DRAMATICALLY alters the results, and is a move that does NOT force you into a strategy with England is to take Radar. Now you can expect to lose 33-66% of your aircraft instead of 16-33%.
In this case, I would rather have the extra unit @ 4 as opposed to an AAA gun shooting at a 2 that only fires once.
I have confirmed my numbers on two dice sims.
I still maintain you are not using Frood correctly for your india battle.
How about a little LL quick computation:
I would guess that Japan will lose 1 plane (5/6 aa shots).
so that’s 2 inf, 3 ftr, bmr = 2, R3 (give 3)
Defense 4 inf, 2 ftr = 2, R4 (give 3)
inf, ftr, bmr = 1 R2 (generously give 2)
inf, 2 ftr = 1 R4 (give 2)
inf on a ftr
Doesn’t look too good via LL for Japan
I would still take these odds as the Allies if the Axis wanted to be that desperate for a round 1 victory.
If Japan did win both India and Hawaii….
The US might get lucky themselves, taking out the Japanese navy US1 and take Marines to get back Hawaii as their long shot to save the game.