Economics


  • 2018 2017 '16 '11 Moderator

    Well, for the second straight day, this recession has inflated my wallet!

    No, I am NOT invested in China, Japan, Europe, etc.  I’m talking just my regular old American Stocks.  You know, for a day that started out at -400 points yesterday and -200 today, I must be doing something right!

    That said, I just bought my first surround sound system and LCD television!  (I used some of the profits I made last year to finance it.  Originally I was hoping to just BUY a tv, but with an average 28% gain in the markets, I could get some nifty stuff.)

    It’s last year’s model, but it’s a 46" LCD Samsung.  It was a the top rated LCD by Consumer Reports (2008) but not the top model.  Samsung actually as a newer model (ends in a 7 instead of a 1.)  But so what, it’s still better then the 32" CRT with the green bars bending through the middle if you watch it for more then 30 minutes at a time! 🙂


  • 2019 Moderator

    Superbowl party at Jens house



  • @Cmdr:

    Well, for the second straight day, this recession has inflated my wallet!

    No, I am NOT invested in China, Japan, Europe, etc.  I’m talking just my regular old American Stocks.  You know, for a day that started out at -400 points yesterday and -200 today, I must be doing something right!

    That said, I just bought my first surround sound system and LCD television!  (I used some of the profits I made last year to finance it.  Originally I was hoping to just BUY a tv, but with an average 28% gain in the markets, I could get some nifty stuff.)

    It’s last year’s model, but it’s a 46" LCD Samsung.  It was a the top rated LCD by Consumer Reports (2008) but not the top model.  Samsung actually as a newer model (ends in a 7 instead of a 1.)  But so what, it’s still better then the 32" CRT with the green bars bending through the middle if you watch it for more then 30 minutes at a time! 🙂

    My question is…what does this have to do with economics?
    And stocks aren’t necessarily economics anyway.
    So what are you invested in?

    @dezrtfish:

    Superbowl party at Jens house

    Hell dude, if I were you I would be GOING to the Super Bowl.  Why come all the way to Chicago when it’s going to be in your state?



  • probably because on that size of a TV he can get closer to the action and it’s cheaper to buy the plain ticket then buy the good seats  😛


  • 2019 Moderator

    One of the guys I work with has season tickets good enough to get a SuperBowl ticket option.  His season ticks are $200 face.  He go tickets although obviously not in his normal seats, he sold them to a broker for 3k apeace.  If GB had made it I might consider finding a deal, I have prety good ticket connections here, but for New York and New England I could care less.

    I will probably go to some of the events  But I will be watching the game at a buddies place.  He has a 62" HD flat panel and a 110" HD theater.  He also just installed a 20" flat panel over the toilet.  Last year in the theater, I felt the need to duck a couple times.  😄



  • @Pervavita:

    probably because on that size of a TV he can get closer to the action and it’s cheaper to buy the plain ticket then buy the good seats  😛

    True, dat.  But I would think any seat at the Super Bowl would be good.

    @dezrtfish:

    One of the guys I work with has season tickets good enough to get a SuperBowl ticket option.  His season ticks are $200 face.  He go tickets although obviously not in his normal seats, he sold them to a broker for 3k apeace.  If GB had made it I might consider finding a deal, I have prety good ticket connections here, but for New York and New England I could care less.

    I will probably go to some of the events  But I will be watching the game at a buddies place.  He has a 62" HD flat panel and a 110" HD theater.  He also just installed a 20" flat panel over the toilet.  Last year in the theater, I felt the need to duck a couple times.  😄

    LOL, sounds awesome.  That toilet is definitely THE Super Bowl, though.


  • 2019 Moderator

    Yeah, I’ll try to get a pic


  • 2018 2017 '16 '11 Moderator

    What it has to do with economics is that people always say “oh, the DOW went down 100 points, see it’s a bad economy!!!”

    Sure it is.  :roll:

    If we see the GDP drop two quarters in a row, then talk to me about a bad economy.  If we have a negative GDP, then I’ll believe you.

    Anyway, I think he might enjoy the game better at my place.  Camera crews get much better angles of the games then sitting in the nose bleed seats.



  • I was assuming this topic was on the looming recession which I believe is already here.

    But all I see is Superbowl and T.V.'s.

    Ooookay, well, the recession is not going to change my lifestyle. I have already adjusted. Don’t eat out. Drink less. Flex power. Fuel efficient vehicle (motorcycle for me… brrrr), or carpool with another. Buy necessities not toys. It’s amazing how much a person can save if they just make minor adjustments to their lifestyles.

    For example, food. Buy a crockpot. One load of stew can cover several meals at relative low cost. Plus it is better for you.

    Another example… I smoke. Besides the obvious of quitting, I switched to rolling my own saving me over 100 bucks in a month.
    Take liability insurance instead of full comp. So drive more alert if you treasure your vehicle.

    WRITE OUT A BUDGET and stick to it.

    This recession will not impact me that much if at all. My job is steady (though I would like to get paid more  :x). My bills are getting paid and my debt is moving in the right direction… shrinking. 😉

    My opinion is people are too comfortable with their lives that they panic when times get hard.

    Times will never stay perfect. My advice is to ADJUST. You will be okay in the end.


  • 2018 2017 '16 '11 Moderator

    There is no recession, looming or otherwise.

    We are in a market correction.  A recession is defined as two quarters of smaller GDPs.  Our GDP has not gotten smaller two consecutive quarters, thus, we are not in a recession.

    We have a mess created by the banks when they decided to sell mortgages to people who should never have qualified, and now the banks are having to deal with the repercussions.  Intelligent people, like myself, pulled their money OUT of the banks after reading reports on how many loans they sold at what interest rates. (They never tell you it was a sub prime loan.  But you can guess that a loan at 8% when people are getting 5 or 6% usually, are probably sub-prime.)

    Just like if Hillary or Obama is elected in November, we’ll be in a medical “crunch” because the intelligent people, like myself, will sell all of our stocks in medical companies and pharmaceuticals.  If they are going to be socialized, then they will no longer be profitable, and why lose all our retirement money when Hillary or Barrack takes the company away from the private investors and nationalize it?

    Unemployment is less then 5%, which up until recently, was considered statistically full employment.  (It changed because the libs want to get the White House, but when it was Clinton, 5% was full employment!)

    GDP is growing, has been for a LONG time.  It slowed in 2007, but there’s a very obvious political reason for that, and I had called it back in November of 2006 that it was going to slow significantly in 2007 if a certain political event happened.  That event happened, I shifted my money around to compensate, I made money.  If a certain political event happens this year, in November, then in February/March of 2009 the economy will slow significantly, maybe even stall, again and I have fiscal plans to deal with that too.

    Fact is, MOST people are making the payments on their mortgages.  Fact is, unemployment rates are WAY down.  Fact is, bankruptcy rates are WAY down.  Fact is, we have a growing and robust economy despite the political desires of certain individuals attempting to get power and the media’s best attempts to drive us into a depression.



  • @Cmdr:

    Fact is, MOST people are making the payments on their mortgages.  Fact is, unemployment rates are WAY down.  Fact is, bankruptcy rates are WAY down.  Fact is, we have a growing and robust economy despite the political desires of certain individuals attempting to get power and the media’s best attempts to drive us into a depression.

    Most intelligent people,…. like yourself?.. would know that the current unemployment rate is not WAY down (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm). Most intelligent people… like yourself… are aware of the mass home forclosures that has plagued 2007. Most intelligent people,… yes, like yourself… would not have the economy, as their A-numero-uno concern for this election, a sick but true assessment.

    Most intelligent people… eh, I’m tired of saying it… would not have just had a bi-partisan agreement for a major tax rebate if there was not concern for a recession.

    Intelligent people, like myself, pulled their money OUT of the banks after reading reports on how many loans they sold at what interest rates

    Something our foreign investors are showing signs of doing as well. When the banks lose money everything else begins to deteriorate. Thanks for the help proving my point…. very intelligent.  😉



  • A couple of things…

    1.  Once the GDP has been down 2 quarters in a row, they make the recession “official”, they also BACKDATE the start date to the beginning of the first quarter of decline.  The “trick” to profiting in a recession (or staying solvent in one) is to recognize it BEFORE it becomes official once you are 7 months into it (6 months to create 2 quarters, another month for the report to come out).  If a recession is officially declared after the 2nd quarter GDP numbers come out 6 months from now, the start date of the recession will officially be placed as January 1, 2008 (3 weeks ago).

    2.  Most people are making their mortgages… most people are working.  That is semantic BS because of how those numbers are normally classified.  Hell, even during the Great Depression the VAST MAJORITY of people were working.  Unemployment was 25%, but the vast majority WERE working.  Most people don’t die of lung cancer either.  Does not tell you a damn thing about cancer rates rising or falling though does it?

    3.  Regarding the robust and growing economy…  Consumer spending down in the 4th quarter.  Consumer Spending accounts for something like 90% of the current US economy for the past decade or so.  We have a net negative savings rate.  Median housing prices fell for the year for the first time in 40 years (Vietnam era recession).  We have the biggest decline in housing construction in 25 years (early 80’s era recession).  Unemployment rates are up nationally more than half a percent in 6 months (which translates to there being 20% more unemployed people than there were).

    The only real question is, will the recession be classified as starting 1st quarter 2008, or will the re-stated 4th qtr 2007 numbers show that it actually began in October…

    We will know with absolute retroactive finality in July…


  • 2018 2017 '16 '11 Moderator

    Give me a hard number on the MASSIVE fore closures.

    Because the last rate I heard was a tenth of a percent were in fore closure.  Less then 3% were at risk of fore closure.

    And Switch, there is a HUGE difference between 25% unemployed and 5% unemployed.  We are at 5%, not 25%.  5% in the mid 1990s was deemed full employment.  Thus, we are at full employment.

    Furthermore, we are NOT in a recession.  Not even Alan Greenspan is saying recession and I’d expect to hear him say it first of all credible sources.

    Sure, the pundits who cannot get a job on Wall Street so work for ABC or CBS may be saying it.  But since they arn’t good enough to be investment bankers or brokers anyway, why should I listen to them?  Especially when darn near everyone is making their mortgages, darn near everyone is employed and darn near everyone feels good about their PERSONAL finances, they are just worried for their neighbors, since the economy is so bad….or so they are told by the media.



  • @Cmdr:

    Give me a hard number on the MASSIVE fore closures.

    enjoy.http://realestate.msn.com/buying/Article2.aspx?cp-documentid=5658441


  • 2017 '16 '15 Organizer '14 Customizer '13 '12 '11 '10

    I have been on Realtytrac.com for 2 months looking for more homes. Zillow has alot of stuff too.


  • 2018 2017 '16 '11 Moderator

    @stuka:

    @Cmdr:

    Give me a hard number on the MASSIVE fore closures.

    enjoy.http://realestate.msn.com/buying/Article2.aspx?cp-documentid=5658441

    Wow, 100% foreclosure rate!

    Oh wait, 80%, oh, they changed it again…

    Ya know what, NO WHERE in that article, unless i missed it, does it say X% of homes were foreclosed.

    Why?  Because it’s barely a single percentage point of all homes that are mortgaged that have been foreclosed on and sold at auction.  Why?  Because banks DO NOT WANT TO FORECLOSE!  They lose money that way!  It’s much more profitable to work out deals with the owners, putting them on fixed rates at 8 or 9% and then give them 50 year notes.  A thing that is happening very often to avoid foreclosures.

    The whole “Everyone is homeless, we’re all going to die!  Women and Children hardest hit!” is a product of the headlines.  It’s not a reality.

    The article says foreclosures up 30%.  Okay.  30% of WHAT!  30% of 10 foreclosures is 3 foreclosures.  So we went from 10 to 13?  Whoopi!

    Well, at the very end, they say 500-1000 home owners a month.  That means that from a few years ago to today (they claim 100% increase, that means double) we’ve gone from 250-500 a month to 500-1000 a month.

    We buy and sell loads more then that WEEKLY!  Not to mention, we have millions and millions of families in this country.  500-1000 out of millions is what?  That’s right, tenths of a percent, like I said.



  • Jen, I was drawing a parallel with your PHRASING about “most people are employed, most people are paying their mortgage” etc.

    The reason I pooted as I did was to show that REVERSING the normal method of stating those figures creates a bogus appearance.  Sure, unemployment may still be below 5%, but it IS 25% HIGHER than it was this time last year…





  • Jen, if you do not realize what effect 1 in 100 mortgages being in foreclosure means, then I have not the time, desire, nor the space on this site to attempt to educate you on the detriment to the US Economy from such a statistic…

    But when the PMI companies start to go belly up in the coming weeks, causing an insurance crisis to add to the housing crisis, the banking crisis, the stock market crisis, the lending capital crisis…

    You figure it out…  :roll:

    4th Qtr Profits:
    Bank of America:  down 95%
    Wachovia:  down 97%



  • @ncscswitch:

    Jen, if you do not realize what effect 1 in 100 mortgages being in foreclosure means, then I have not the time, desire, nor the space on this site to attempt to educate you on the detriment to the US Economy from such a statistic…

    1% of 300 million is 3 million. I’m not sure how many mortgages there are but since % of our population is 3 million people my guess is that 1% of our homes are over 1 million. and its absurd to say that over  1 million houses foreclosed isn’t bad.



  • And the Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates (again) in an “emergency move”:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEgwdDHD5Fbs&refer=home

    Gee, must be 'cause the Federal Reserve are such nice guys and decided to make less money… surely not to stave off impending economic doom. /sarcasm



  • More homes foreclosing means . . .

    MORE STRIPPERS IN VEGAS!!!

    Come on people, think about what’s important here!


  • 2018 2017 '16 '11 Moderator

    That’s just it.

    The NUMBER of mortgages went up to INSANE levels when the Fed was slashing interest rates to recover from the 2000 recession under the President in 2000.

    They made BAD choices.

    They are having issues getting people to repay now.

    This is NOT an indicator of the economy.  Why?  Because there is a HUGE percentage of people who ARE paying their mortgages down.

    Yea, it sucks for the 1 guy in 1000 who loses his home.  Oh well.  It sucks for the 1 guy in 1000 that mortgages his house in Vegas and loses everything too.  Bad choices have bad consequences.



  • Yeah, bummer what happened to people in 2000 under that particular presidents watch.

    So… that means this one can be blamed on the current president’s watch since you are so inclined of pinning someone’s name to it.
    Can’t have your cake and eat too, Jen.

    This situation cannot be back dated to anyone before Bush. It’s near the end of his second term. Just short of a decade. Remember that.


  • 2018 2017 '16 '11 Moderator

    Yup.  The current president should have made government warnings more forceful to the citizens warning them of the predatory practices of disreputable financial institutions.

    Many of the more intelligent people in this nation KNEW that ARMs only go up and Interest Only Payments make no sense because you have no financial stack in your home.  If the property DEPRECIATES, then you are upside down in your mortgage and it’s easier for the bank to foreclose.

    Currently it’s a lack of public knowledge.  Previously it was a lack of governmental over sight.


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