Siberian Units

On the flip side, I’ve taken Moscow on Turn 5 with Germany.

To me, that’s like going for checkmate in three moves. It CAN work, but you have to count on your opponent to make some dumb moves and not see it coming.

If you are playing a skilled opponent, you CANNOT capture Russia in five turns. At least, I don’t think so.

unless the dice gods bless you. =)

Mmm… I have seen several games lost by Axis because after Moscow fall, in the following turn also Germany fall.
Russia is a short term strategy Country in my opinion. 4-5 turns. Russia have to do the greater damage possible to the German army. Greater the losses on the Russian front greaters the problem that German have to face.
UK/US have to come in help before is too late or, otherwise, Russia and her allies are doomed.
Conservative play or aggressive play when Japan arrive to threaten Moscow and Germany advance on the Eastern front Red Army is in a very bad situation.
So why take care of tanks? The best use for them is to destroy German infantry. They went destroyed in the process? What a pity, meanwhile, Germany have to stack Europe, and any less infantry is one less problem for Russia.

BTW, if you send both fighters to Ukraine, how do you take W. Russia?  And if you take W. Russia and Ukraine, are not all of your armor now vulnerable?

The idea is:

Ukraine: attack with 3 inf, 1 art, 2 tank, 2 fig
West russia: 9 inf, 1 art, 2 tank

leaving only 3 inf in bielorussia and having buyed 3 inf and 3 tank, I do not think that German may attack West RUssia.
Ukraina is only a trading territory.

The idea is not mine, but of Axis_roll, an I like it very much!

I’d be tempted to blitz W. Russia forgoing a hit on the British navy.  If I can knock out the Russian army with moderate losses I can recover before England can press the advantage of the free destroyer in the Med.

@Jennifer:

I’d be tempted to blitz W. Russia forgoing a hit on the British navy.  If I can knock out the Russian army with moderate losses I can recover before England can press the advantage of the free destroyer in the Med.

My initial thought was that the Belo/West Russia R1 attack is MORE suceptible to a German 1 counter in West Russia because Germany would have more/better attacking units left alive in Ukraine instead of Belorussia.

So I looked at the numbers on a dice sim, and when R1 you go with everything you can against West Russia (9 inf, 2 art, 4 tanks), the most likely outcome was 7 inf, 2 art, 4 tanks, happening >= 59% of the time.  If on R1 you attack Ukraine, along with West Russia (9 inf, art, 2 tanks) has a most likely outcome of 7 inf, art, 2 tanks, happening >= 45% of the time.

Turning around and attacking West Russia on G1:
When ukraine was not attacked R1:
3 inf, art, 3 tanks, 6 ftrs, bomber on 7 inf, 2 art, 4 tanks > 61% win chance, 4 units left

when belorussia was not attacked R1:
3 inf, tank, 5 ftrs, bomber on 7 inf, art, 2 tanks > 46% win chance, 4 Russian units left

So the odds are slightly BETTER  for Germany to attack West Russia G1 if Russia does not hit ukraine R1.

DISCLAIMER:
This was a very rudimentary analysis, the number of units in these battles is small, so there can be a lot of variance, especially with the AA gun firing on defense against a G1 hit (either way).

Also, the odds of R1 “winning” either belorussia  (3 inf, 2 ftr on 3 inf) or ukraine (3 inf, art, 2 tank, 2 ftr) are just about equal (3-4% diff), with about the same odds for a withdrawal of your two planes (15-18%)

I made the evaluation basing on my game experience.
Hitting only WR had as answer German counterattack to WR, having 6 inf to cover the attacking panzers (3 inf from Ukraine and 3 inf from Belorussia). After a round of strafing German army may retreat to Belorussia or Ukraine, and then reinforce with inf (from EE and BAL) and fig.
So I have switched my Russia opening to attack two territories: WR for sure and UKR or Belorussia.
Belorussia attack do not hurt Germany as the Ukraine attack.
The way to attack Ukraine may be 3 inf, 1 art, 2 tank 2 fig, which allows for taking Ukraine with 1 or 2 tanks left. The stack in WR is pretty safe, Germany have only 3 inf in Belorussia to cover the attack and even if her strafe WR retreating in Belorussia the army is without covering infantry, because German may send only 2 inf from EE. This without considering that German should re-conquer Ukraine.
The only way for German to hit efficiently WR is having both Belorussia and Ukraine inf.
Spoiling Germany of those inf is a must for Russia IMHO.
The alternative to conquer, Belorussia or Ukraine, is to strafe it, stripping away the inf. Those panzer is going nowhere without infantry covering.
So why I prefer attack Ukraine? Flexibility is the answer.
I attack Ukraine with 3 inf, 1 art, 3 tank, 2 fig, and W with 9 inf, 1 art, 1 tank. Buying is 3 inf and 3 tank or maybe 5 inf 1 art 1 tank.
If my attack in WR is going very well (say 1 or 2 inf loss WR taken with 7 inf, 1 art, 1 tank) I may choose to only strafe Ukraine, depending also on the losses in the first round. So I keep the German with less infantries and preserve my tank force.
If attack in WR is going bad (more than 3 losses so only 6-5 inf left) I definitely go in Ukraine for conquer it. So I destroy more German units, gain 3 more IPC, and are still able to keep German away from Caucasus in the first two rounds, trading Ukraine.
Considering German counter at this point, the best thing for her is trading Ukraine. Moving en masse there without inf and without fig coverage it is not healthy.
Attacking Belorussia there is not such flexibility. You have to go for conquer it. German forces in Ukraine stay intact. If WR attack goes bad German has still the opportunity to strafe Red Army in WR, or moving en masse in Ukraine, or even trying to take Caucasus.
Then, naturally Russia may counter trading Caucasus, but it is better to trading Ukraine then Caucasus IMHO.

Good points. What to do, what to do???

It is one of the thing I love of A&A…. what to do!  :-D
I mean: I like games that are various and umpredictable and that needs a lot of thinking… A&A!!!  :roll:

I think the option to hit W. Russia and Belorussia has less to do with holding W. Russia (which you could do, if you really wanted too) and more to do with maximizing damage done to Germany to damage done to Russia.

Can Germany reclaim?  As you said, odds are they can have 4 armor surviving in W. Russia.  Congratulations.  I am now killing those 4 armor and losing 2-4 infantry.  Good trade.  Meanwhile, Germany is now at a severe disadvantage as they have almost no panzer corps left to use as valuable combat punch to defend their infantry stacks.

So the question is, if you attack W. Russia and Belorussia, will Germany risk a massive blow to their own army to do some damage to Russia’s army?  Or will Germany hold back, reclaim Belorussia, take Karelia, and build up forces at twice the pace of the Russians until they can more readily move in and take Russia?

If attack in WR goes bad (I mean losing more than 2 inf, one time I loses 5 inf!) Germany may try to strafe WR (not to conquer it) or may try to adance in Ukraine covering the army with fig and threatening Caucasus from G2 on.
With Ukraine in Russia hands this is very difficult to happen.
Moreover, I am convinced that attacking Ukraine gives more flexibility to Russia (you may resolve WR attack first and then decide if going heavy in Ukraine or only strafing it for 1 round). Belorussia on the other hand is a do or die attack.
I think that in A&A having more choices is a value. For this reason I prefer to attack Ukraine.

@Jennifer:

I think the option to hit W. Russia and Belorussia has less to do with holding W. Russia (which you could do, if you really wanted too) and more to do with maximizing damage done to Germany to damage done to Russia.

Doesn’t attacking and killing 3 inf, art, tank and ftr in ukraine equal maximizing damage to Germany?
I certainly wouldn’t call trading 3 inf for 3 inf (belorussia) as maximizing damage done to Germany.

@Jennifer:

Can Germany reclaim?  As you said, odds are they can have 4 armor surviving in W. Russia.  Congratulations.  I am now killing those 4 armor and losing 2-4 infantry.  Good trade.  Meanwhile, Germany is now at a severe disadvantage as they have almost no panzer corps left to use as valuable combat punch to defend their infantry stacks.

So the question is, if you attack W. Russia and Belorussia, will Germany risk a massive blow to their own army to do some damage to Russia’s army?  Or will Germany hold back, reclaim Belorussia, take Karelia, and build up forces at twice the pace of the Russians until they can more readily move in and take Russia?

Am I missing something or did you just argue AGAINST Russia hitting belorussia and west russia round 1?

@axis_roll:

Turning around and attacking West Russia on G1:
When ukraine was not attacked R1:
3 inf, art, 3 tanks, 6 ftrs, bomber on 7 inf, 2 art, 4 tanks > 61% win chance, 4 units left

when belorussia was not attacked R1:
3 inf, tank, 5 ftrs, bomber on 7 inf, art, 2 tanks > 46% win chance, 4 Russian units left

So the odds are slightly BETTER  for Germany to attack West Russia G1 if Russia does not hit ukraine R1.

DISCLAIMER:
This was a very rudimentary analysis, the number of units in these battles is small, so there can be a lot of variance, especially with the AA gun firing on defense against a G1 hit (either way).

There is one flaw in your scenario - you have Germany committing all of its airpower to attacking WR on G1. That means ignoring or under-powering the Egypt attack, leaving the UK BB alone, and not hitting Karelia, and Belo/Ukraine (whichever Russia took) with any air.

That’s a lot of battles to completely deprive of air support, esp. when committing all possible ground units to WR as well.

Few players would allocate 4-5 air units to WRU with 1 Russian AA gun moved to WRU.
It’s worth 2 ipc. I cannot remember that I have ever seen such a move with Germany.
As G I don’t want WRU anyway. Cauc is much more important, and worth more.

@Frood:

@axis_roll:

Turning around and attacking West Russia on G1:
When ukraine was not attacked R1:
3 inf, art, 3 tanks, 6 ftrs, bomber on 7 inf, 2 art, 4 tanks > 61% win chance, 4 units left

when belorussia was not attacked R1:
3 inf, tank, 5 ftrs, bomber on 7 inf, art, 2 tanks > 46% win chance, 4 Russian units left

So the odds are slightly BETTER  for Germany to attack West Russia G1 if Russia does not hit ukraine R1.

DISCLAIMER:
This was a very rudimentary analysis, the number of units in these battles is small, so there can be a lot of variance, especially with the AA gun firing on defense against a G1 hit (either way).

There is one flaw in your scenario - you have Germany committing all of its airpower to attacking WR on G1. That means ignoring or under-powering the Egypt attack, leaving the UK BB alone, and not hitting Karelia, and Belo/Ukraine (whichever Russia took) with any air.

That’s a lot of battles to completely deprive of air support, esp. when committing all possible ground units to WR as well.

Wait!
How did opportunity cost come into the discussion?

Jenn was avocating potentially hitting west russia G1 if you attacked Ukraine and West Russia on R1.  I ran the odds.

Nowhere did I discuss anything about what else Germany could/should do on G1.
You’re bringing up strategic aspects into a purely statistical analysis.

There’s many factors (even in the first round of the game) to discuss as to when you would want to hit west russia G1.  Discussing that elsewhere would be more fitting as opposed to responding to a purely statisical analysis post.

There’s nothing inherently wrong with attacking Ukraine along with W. Russia. It is a one time opportunity to take out German offensive gear (art/arm/fig) before it disappears behind a stack of inf. Russia should be leaping at a chance like that. As mentioned many times, the loss of the fig helps the other allies land earlier, and/or makes Germany build another fighter.

Attacking Belo + W. Russia is a safe bet I would say, though. Preserving those 4 Russian tanks and putting them in Moscow allows you strike into Sinkiang and Ukraine, whichever is a juicier target.

Attacking Belorussia is safer, I agree.
Attacking Ukraine is riskier but more effective, and I think is more flexible.
Moreover the loss is not of four tanks, but only two, maybe three (dependes how many of them are used in the attack).

My thought on Ukraine/West Russia, as opposed to Belorussia/West Russia:

Belorussia/West Russia:

Extremely safe play for the Russians with very favorable odds in all battles.  There is a extremely small chance that one or both battles go very badly for the Russians, leaving the Germans in a good countering position.

Ukraine/West Russia:

Aggressive play with the Russians.  Attacking with two tanks is very risky.  Attacking with three tanks is very costly.  Whether two tanks or three tanks are used, though, a few bad rolls by the Russians followed by a German counter means a chance for the Axis to take control.

I’m only radical when it comes to writing posts  :-D