Punch / Count Question


  • 2007 AAR League

    In playing with the odds and the Frood calculator, I found something that I could not explain.  Hopefully someone else can help.  (I apologize if this is a duplicate question).

    If a space is defended by 100 infantry, there is a dCount of 100 and a dPunch of 200.

    If I have two choices of attacking from 50 transports using either artillery or tanks as the main offense, I get an identical aCount of 200 and aPunch of 200.

    50 inf + 50 art = 50x2 + 50x2 = 200

    50 inf + 50 tanks = 50x1 + 50x3 = 200

    However, if I attack with the tanks, I have a 90.6% chance of winning; but if I attack with the artillery my chances drop all the way to 49%!

    Is this the nebulous “Skew”?  What am I not seeing?



  • 😮
    What you are not seeing is the difference of the cost to field 50 tanks or 50 artillary is, and that is 50 IPC more for the tanks. 😉
      Hope that helps.


  • 2007 AAR League

    @Crazy:

    😮
    What you are not seeing is the difference of the cost to field 50 tanks or 50 artillary is, and that is 50 IPC more for the tanks. 😉
      Hope that helps.

    Uh, nope.  No help with the problem.

    The price of a unit has no impact on its actual combat ability.  That is why I thought the artillery option should work as well and be the better choice - it has the same punch and count for less money.



  • @Sub:

    @Crazy:

    😮
    What you are not seeing is the difference of the cost to field 50 tanks or 50 artillary is, and that is 50 IPC more for the tanks. 😉
      Hope that helps.

    Uh, nope.  No help with the problem.

    The price of a unit has no impact on its actual combat ability.  That is why I thought the artillery option should work as well and be the better choice - it has the same punch and count for less money.

    have you ever heard of skew?



  • Maybe I have an idea.

    You said that you are attacking a territories defended by 100 infantries with a defensive punch of 200, that are about 33 hits for the attacker.

    When your forces of infantries and artilleries loses 33 units you are losing 66 in terms of attack punch.
    With your forces of infantries and tanks losing 33 units means losing only 33 in terms of attack punch.
    So in the second round first formation (infantries and artilleries, F1) have a punch of 134 while the second formation (infantries and tanks, F2) have a punch of 167.

    So first formation losses in attack strenght respect to the second is double.

    In the second round formation F1 will inflict 22 hits on the defender while the formation F2 will inflict 27-28 hits to the defender.
    The defender will inflict 22 hits.

    So in round three the situation is:

    F1 45 art vs 45 inf
    F2 45 tank vs 40 inf

    I think that formation F2 has a greater chance to win the battle.



  • @Romulus:

    Maybe I have an idea.

    You said that you are attacking a territories defended by 100 infantries with a defensive punch of 200, that are about 33 hits for the attacker.

    When your forces of infantries and artilleries loses 33 units you are losing 66 in terms of attack punch.
    With your forces of infantries and tanks losing 33 units means losing only 33 in terms of attack punch.
    So in the second round first formation (infantries and artilleries, F1) have a punch of 134 while the second formation (infantries and tanks, F2) have a punch of 167.

    So first formation losses in attack strenght respect to the second is double.

    In the second round formation F1 will inflict 22 hits on the defender while the formation F2 will inflict 27-28 hits to the defender.
    The defender will inflict 22 hits.

    So in round three the situation is:

    F1 45 art vs 45 inf
    F2 45 tank vs 40 inf

    I think that formation F2 has a greater chance to win the battle.

    yes thats right there only equal in teh first round of combat. ayou have to recalculate after each round.



  • Cyan, this necessity to recalculate the odds is the things that you called skew?



  • @Romulus:

    Cyan, this necessity to recalculate the odds is the things that you called skew?

    yes. lets say I lose 25 in each battle. thats 25 inf per side. (50 art or 50 tanks deonding on which group). the artillery now only have a punch of 150 while the tanks have a punch of 175. thats 4 more hits. and then it continues to cascade for each additional round. the reason skew works is because the artilery group loses  punch faster.( equaling less attacker hits which  in turn equals more defender hits which then means even less attacker hits next round and so on and so on.)



  • Thank you very much!


  • 2017 2016

    Bumped.
    @Panther or Wittmann,
    I believe this should be in Player help.
    Nothing too specific related to  Axis and Allies Revised Edition,
    Thanks.


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