Triple A vs Frood

The other weird thing with Triple A is that once or twice a game, someone will roll a big battle and take the territory WITHOUT LOSS and against large odds, but then the dice roll emails don’t go out.  I’ve had that happen 3 or 4 times now.  Anyone else notice that?

I’ve had a number of attacks in TripleA lately where I attack with 10 or so units and don’t get more than a single hit in a round of combat. Maybe there’s something wrong with the randomizer?

However, any fault in tripleA’s dice would not necessarily apply when doing PBEM, because the dice are rolled by a dice server rather than TripleA itself.

Based on my limited experience I can’t say it’s anything more than bad luck, but I’ll have to try this battle in TripleA myself. Just looking at it though it looks like it SHOULD be a win for Russia.

I just ran that battle in TripleA’s Battle Simulator and it has the attacker win 95% of the time, just like my results. That’s based on 5000 battles.

Now, I just want to make one observation: 12 attempts is not a lot, certainly not enough to base any conclusions on. Even with running 10,000 times, my sim usually shows a range of at least +/- 1% in the calculated percentages.

10,000 is a lot more than 12. But if people are comfortable with predicting future probabilities based on 12 runs, I could make my sim run a lot faster by reducing it to 12 iterations…

Don;t be a smart ass Dan :-P

But if you want to add a “Jen” setting for rolling a battle 12 times, go for it :-D

I can see the radio buttons now…

1,000
5,000
10,000
Jen

:-D

@Gamer:

The other weird thing with Triple A is that once or twice a game, someone will roll a big battle and take the territory WITHOUT LOSS and against large odds, but then the dice roll emails don’t go out.  I’ve had that happen 3 or 4 times now.  Anyone else notice that?

Ya it happen to me too.

Fact is, when you have a single outcome with 8% probability that is the single most likely outcome, you still get something else 92% of the time.

@Frood:

Now, I just want to make one observation: 12 attempts is not a lot, certainly not enough to base any conclusions on. Even with running 10,000 times, my sim usually shows a range of at least +/- 1% in the calculated percentages.

(nods head)

. . . I wasn’t sleeping!

@ShadowHAwk:

Well it aint a simulator it just rolls the dice.
If you roll the dice 100 times you can have a strange result on the average every time
Using Low luck to calculate the result manualy ( without a calculator ) i get to 1 inf 1 art 2 figs surviving.
Then again i saw 6 inf hit 3 times and 20 inf hit nothing in real games so it really does not say a lot.
BTW isnt tripleA open source anyway ? so if you think it is flawed just read the sourcecode :D

I call it a simulator because it simulates rolling actual dice, as opposed to a calculator which would work out the exact odds mathematically according to the probabilities.

Thats sound pretty bad.
Have you notified TripleA of your results?

TripleA has a history dice statistic thing. What does it say on your computer?

There is a calculator in TripleA too. Its set to do more than 12 runs by default.