What if these happen? - Extrem G1 Strategy

  • 2007 AAR League

    @Jennifer:

    I used to have the percentage up on my signature.  My fighters were around 33% hits, my attacking infantry were close to 40% hits.  It’s weird, but that’s just the way it is for me.  I attack with 2 Infantry, Fighter vs Infantry, odds are that my infantry will hit, my fighter will miss and the defender will hit.

    What could possibly make that happen consistently?

    Can you show me here with the inhouse roller? Roll 100 Infantry and 100 Fighters, let’s see what happens.


  • @Frood:

    @Jennifer:

    I used to have the percentage up on my signature.  My fighters were around 33% hits, my attacking infantry were close to 40% hits.  It’s weird, but that’s just the way it is for me.  I attack with 2 Infantry, Fighter vs Infantry, odds are that my infantry will hit, my fighter will miss and the defender will hit.

    What could possibly make that happen consistently?

    Can you show me here with the inhouse roller? Roll 100 Infantry and 100 Fighters, let’s see what happens.

    Jen, maybe you are able to mesmerize the dices?!!??!  😮

    I am with Frood this time, but 100 inf and 100 fig are not “statistically significative”. 1.000.000 inf and 1.000.000 Fig begin to have a minimum significance from a Great Numbers Law point of view. But they are still few. Maybe we need 1.000.000.000 but it is still too small!
    Really we should calculate a mathematical limit for the number of dice rolled by Jen that goes to infinity to check if her “frequency” of scoring 1 is greater of the “probability” of scoring 1 with an ordinary dice.  😄

    This is the point. Probability of scoring one with a dice is always 1/6, no matter which unit is rolling, no matter how many “1” you have already scored. Probability is defined “a priori” and do not change.
    Frequency of scoring 1 is the result obtained from the division: number of “1” rolled/total numbers of rolls attempted. It is calculated “a posteriori” and change during the game. The more dices are rolled the more the frequency tends to the probability, this is a mathematical law.
    Law of Great Numbers guarantee that the greater are the number of rolls you attempt then your frequency will be nearer to the probability.
    Law of Great Number do not guarantee that after five “6” your next roll will be a “1”, you have the same probaility of rolling a “6” also after five of them!
    This is the big problem!

    Returning to A&A, IMHO good strategy means to not depending “always and totally” from the result of dices! Players should always try to have a reserve plan, to be used if the battle goes bad. Naturally there are always the probability to score an huge amount of useless 6 in the decisive battle… because the Law of Large Naumbers may not impose nothing to the dice results!  😞

  • 2007 AAR League

    Also keep in mind - if AACalc says you have an 80% chance of surviving, this is not necessarily an 80% chance of a good outcome, because it includes any victory where you even have only one unit surviving - you could still be losing more units than the other side, and/or end up capturing the territory with 5 tanks, right next to a big stack of enemy Inf and Fighters.

    Maybe instead of doing a survival %, I should indicate percentage likelihood of “economic victory”.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    The instant I try to duplicate it in a test environment (not a game) you know I’ll have 100% accuracy with fighters, 0% with infantry. 😛

    I just can count, usually, on my infantry getting more hits in small battles then my fighters.  Long battles is a different story.

  • 2007 AAR League

    That sounds to me like Confirmation bias, the tendency to recall evidence that supports our preconceived conclusions:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

    This is also an interesting read, the tendency of people to ignore probability in making decisions:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neglect_of_probability

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    It may be.  At least in regards to my bombers getting blown to hell by any AA Gun they come near when SBRing.  (Although, how many people can remember at least one game where they lost all Allied bombers to the AA Gun in Berlin in a single turn?) Infantry vs Fighters I actually have hard numbers for.  Fighters are 34% accurate (rounded out of multiple thousands of rolls) and infantry are 37% accurate (rounded out of multiple tens of thousands of rolls) in combat situations.  Not in hypotheticals.

    This is primarily due to my luck of attacking with 2 infantry, fighter and having the infantry get a hit, not a fighter.  Which, to be honest, the infantry have a 33% chance at getting a hit between the two of them and the fighter has a 50% chance of getting a hit.

  • 2007 AAR League

    I just want to see your spreadsheet where you recorded tens of thousands of infantry attacks…

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    It’s a notepad and it’s just incremented by 1 for each hit and the total is incremented by 1 for each unit rolled.  I only track fighters and infantry, I hardly ever have combat with armor or artillery. (inf+Art are not tallied either.)


  • 😮
    I have played many many games as well, and I fully understand where Jenn is coming from. The calculations of averages for certain of our units is etched in our minds by repeated, (disappointing) actions! I too loose more IPC when trying to strat bomb. So I quit doing it altogether. And my transports shoot down more planes than my AAA every time. My fighters as well suck worse than my tanks, so I rarely buy them either.
    I feel your pain Jenn, so I try to only play LL on TripleA with no tech. I’ve had much more enjoyable games since LL came along. Too bad we can’t use it in tourneyments.
      C.I.  :roll:

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Hah!  My transports are invincible!  Anyone who’s ever attacked them has repented of their sins and begged for mercy!

    I’ve sunk the British Destroyer and Carrier in SZ 59 and lived.
    I’ve had two transports shoot down 4 German fighters.
    I even had a transport sink a battleship in AAR.

    Transports are godly!  If only I could get Super Transports instead of Super Submarines (Transports get 1 AA shot per attacking fighter plus normal defense!)


  • 😄
    Ya Ya, feel the pain of the Uber-Transports! HaHa  😮


  • Uh! And why not equip them with a pre-emptive shot and the capabilities to carry a fighter?  😄

    I like Transports also!!!
    TRN is the more important unit after the infantry (that is the more important unit overall in the game) because they are able to transport the more important unit of the game, the infantry!

    But… my TRN do not difend as Jen TRN do, they insist in scoring between 2 and 4!  😞

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