I think the Allies should win around 80+% of the time without a bid.
Without bid units, there is no chance of invasion of London on G1, and no chance of Germany being able to hold Anglo-Egypt past G1, and no way for Germany to unite its Baltic and Mediterranean fleets on G2.
Which means, IMHO, that the game will swing on the result of a naval/air battle in the Atlantic or Pacific; if the Axis get lucky, the Axis will end up winning the game, if the Axis get unlucky or even just have regular luck, the Axis will lose.
1. Triple A rules, along with some other clubs/rules (such as c-sub), PROHIBIT an attack on an opponents capital before they get a chance to move. So the bid could be 5 transports in the baltic, London still cant be attacked. So your first point is moot.
I was talking about games that are not necessarily TripleA. I am personally against the prohibition on attacks on an opponent capitals on first turns, and have extensive notes on how to counter G1 Long Range Aircraft Sealion with preplaced 7 bid. It is silly to say my point is moot so long as there are considerable players that do NOT play by your aforementioned club rules. Silly bear.
2. Germany has 4 units in Africa at start. G1 can bring 2 units to egypt G1 and 2 more G2. Thats a total of 8. They can hold Egypt “past G1”. Your second point is flat out incorrect.
If Germany does NOT keep Anglo-Egypt past UK1, then Germany cannot quickly and easily dominate Africa. The question, you understand, is not whether Germany can RETAKE Anglo-Egypt, which is what you’re talking about, squirecam. I think the question really IS whether or not Germany can HOLD Anglo-Egypt, and have the consequent 2 tanks with which to rip through Africa on G2.
Remember that without a bid, you have moved the Mediterranean fleet east, allowing the Allies to unite west of Algeria with 1 battleship, 1 destroyer, 4 transport, and a sub. So the Allies can start retaking Africa IMMEDIATELY. If Germany moves tanks to Egypt, that’s less tanks going up against Russia.
3. Germany can merge G2 depending on the allies build. HOWEVER, the merge does NOT depend upon a bid. An extra transport will not “make or break” a merge attempt odds nor will a bid such as 2inf UKR or inf UKR inf Belo. Another “absolutist” statement which is indeed wrong.
Okay, so you have no bid, and you are moving to unite the fleet on G2. This means that you built naval defense in the Baltic to prevent the UK from bombing that navy out, and it means you moved the Med fleet west. That is the only way that you will be able to with surety unite the German fleets on G2. Is that “absolutist”? Seriously, I think that’s just what happens. So with that, and no bid, the maximum attack you can take on Anglo-Egypt is now 1 inf 1 tank 2 fig 1 bomber. Let us assume that you took Gibraltar, to avoid the UK counterattack of air plus destroyer. (Reasonable, yes?) So now you have a scenario in which every German casualty in Anglo-Egypt beyond the first either costs a 10 IPC fighter, or allows UK to retain control of Anglo-Egypt and thus move the Indian fleet into the Mediterranean. Which is tolerable, but also the Germans didn’t put any additional units in Africa, and furthermore, will probably have at best one defender, allowing the UK to retake with a minimal 2 inf and fighter, or even 1 inf 1 fighter 1 bomber if anything less than both German fighters and the German bomber landed in Africa. Even so, with the following German turn of threatening 1 inf 1 art into Anglo-Egypt on G2, if the Germans DO unite their fleet off Western Europe, the UK can retake Anglo-Egypt yet again. This allows UK to retain control of African IPCs into UK3, unless Japan commits transports to Africa early, which will disrupt early Japanese units to Asia, which pretty much means that by the time the Axis CAN crack Africa, the Allies have a strong combined Atlantic fleet.
And let’s not forget that if there wasn’t a bid, Russia could try to forestall the German plan by going West Russia/Ukraine, leaving the German attack force at 1 inf 1 tank 1 fig 1 bomber vs 1 inf 1 tank 1 fig.
4. Were you on the c-pipe when you wrote this ???
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