3 Attacks is just TOO risky for my blood…
Eastern (2 INF, 1 ARM, 1 FIG):
W/ 3 INF, 1 FIG Karelia only:
It is only a 14% win for Russia (most often you lose all attackers in exchange for 2 INF)
Add the ARM from Archangel OR FIG from Russia:
It is only about a 52% win for Russia, and still unlikely to occupy it.
Add the FIG from Russia AND the ARM from Archangel
It is an 83% battle to win but only BARELY above 50% to take Eastern.
West Russia (3 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM):
With Archangel INF, Russia INF, Russia ART
About a 62% chance to win.
Ukraine (3 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM, 1 FIG):
With Caucuses INF, ART, and ARM:
Add one Russian ARM:
Add BOTH Russian ARM:
I consider 66% (2/3 chance) to be the WORST odds I will accept in a less-than-in-deep-kimchee situation. I can;t get that with attacker Eastern/West Russia/Ukraine, no matter how I slice it. Add in an Axis bid of any kind…
If I DO pull off all three wins I still probably did not gain Eastern’s income, so as Russia I collect only $29, the same as if I attack only 2 territories. But at a cost of ALL of my armor, and most likely ALL of my forward units in Eastern, West Russia, AND Ukraine to the German counter attack (1 ARM AT MOST in Eastern, 1 INF, 1 ART in West Russia on average, 2 ARM Ukraine).
BTW: The cumulative odds of all 3 battles succeeding: less than 33%.
Germany’s counter (along with typical R1 moves that are not blocked by this, only made SLIGHTLY risker by having only 3 FIG for SZ13 and no BOM for Egypt (I’d use it for WR instead) leaves Germany $2 wealthier after their counter (Karelia from Norway, Eastern (if needed to be countered), Ukraine liberated, AND West Russia Liberated (which normally does not happen).
Germany collecting $46 after G1, Russia with $29 cash and only $22 income, and no ARM unless they purchased them on R1, in which case Russia as a serious manpower shortage in Europe and a LOT of territory to fight over with Germany advancing on them using massed ground forces.