Global Warming- stop getting so upset



  • I am trying to dispel two myths: 1 that we are causing global warming, if it is indeed happening, and 2 that it is really really horrible.

    Is global warming occurring?

    ØAccording to Accu-Weather, the world’s leading commercial forecaster, “Global air temperatures as measured by land-based weather stations show an increase of about 0.45 degrees Celsius over the past century. This may be no more than normal climatic variation…[and] several biases in the data may be responsible for some of this increase.”

    ØSatellite data indicate a slight cooling in the climate in the last 18 years. These satellites use advanced technology and are not subject to the “heat island” effect around major cities that alters ground-based thermometers.

    ØProjections of future climate changes are uncertain. Although some computer models predict warming in the next century, these models are very limited. The effects of cloud formations, precipitation, the role of the oceans, or the sun, are still not well known and often inadequately represented in the climate models –- although all play a major role in determining our climate. Scientists who work on these models are quick to point out that they are far from perfect representations of reality, and are probably not advanced enough for direct use in policy implementation. Interestingly, as the computer climate models have become more sophisticated in recent years, the predicted increase in temperature has been lowered.

    Are humans causing the climate to change?

    Ø98% of total global greenhouse gas emissions are natural (mostly water vapor); only 2% are from man-made sources.

    ØBy most accounts, man-made emissions have had no more than a minuscule impact on the climate. Although the climate has warmed slightly in the last 100 years, 70% percent of that warming occurred prior to 1940, before the upsurge in greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes. (Dr. Robert C. Balling, Arizona State University)

    ØA Gallup survey indicated that only 17% of the members of the American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Society thought the warming of the 20th century was the result of an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

    If global warming occurs, will it be harmful?

    ØThe idea that global warming would melt the ice caps and flood coastal cities seems to be mere science fiction. A slight increase in temperature – whether natural or mankind induced – is not likely to lead to a massive melting of the earth ice caps, as sometimes claimed in the media. Also, sea-level rises over the centuries relate more to warmer and thus expanding oceans, not to melting ice caps.

    ØContrary to some groups’ fear mongering about the threat of diseases, temperature changes are likely to have little effect on the spread of diseases. Experts say that deterioration in public health practices such as rapid urbanization without adequate infrastructure, forced large scale resettlement of people, increased drug resistance, higher mobility through air travel, and lack of insect-control programs have the greatest impact on the spread of vector-borne diseases.

    ØLarger quantities of CO2 in the atmosphere and warmer climates would likely lead to an increase in vegetation. During warm periods in history vegetation flourished, at one point allowing the Vikings to farm in now frozen Greenland.

    -Source: www.globalwarming.org



  • @yourbuttocks:

    Source: www.globalwarming.org

    (1) the source: “Cooler Heads Coalition, a sub-group of the National Consumer Coalition.
    The Cooler Heads Coalition formed May 6, 1997 to dispel the myths of global warming by exposing flawed economic, scientific, and risk analysis.”

    and

    “The members of the National Consumer Coalition (NCC) do hereby endorse the following principles for a society of free and responsible consumers:
    A market economy benefits consumers by expanding consumer choice and competition and fostering innovation, which lowers costs and improves consumer health and safety.
    Government policies that restrict consumer choice and stifle competition harm consumers by substituting policymakers’ values for individual values and raising the costs of goods and services to consumers.”

    This cleary says: all that we say is biased and to promote our goal of showing that there is no global warming.

    Is global warming occurring?

    ØAccording to Accu-Weather, the world’s leading commercial forecaster, “Global air temperatures as measured by land-based weather stations show an increase of about 0.45 degrees Celsius over the past century. This may be no more than normal climatic variation…[and] several biases in the data may be responsible for some of this increase.”

    MAY be no more …. that is more or less no information. May be, may not be.
    Sure, may be it is just a natural change, but may be it’s not.

    ØSatellite data indicate a slight cooling in the climate in the last 18 years. These satellites use advanced technology and are not subject to the “heat island” effect around major cities that alters ground-based thermometers.

    ØProjections of future climate changes are uncertain. Although some computer models predict warming in the next century, these models are very limited. The effects of cloud formations, precipitation, the role of the oceans, or the sun, are still not well known and often inadequately represented in the climate models –- although all play a major role in determining our climate. Scientists who work on these models are quick to point out that they are far from perfect representations of reality, and are probably not advanced enough for direct use in policy implementation. Interestingly, as the computer climate models have become more sophisticated in recent years, the predicted increase in temperature has been lowered.

    What is the time scale, that these models work with? If we change something now, when will it affect us? That is the important issue.
    If we ruin something now, and the effect will come 100 years later, then our grandchildren will be deep in shit, and not be able to get out there (as changes take 100 years to take effect, and you don’t know wether the damage we did today is repairable!)

    The gloabal warming from 1860 to 1995 was 0.7 degrees after the DKRZ (http://www.dkrz.de/index-eng.html and following). More than your source admits.

    Are humans causing the climate to change?

    Ø98% of total global greenhouse gas emissions are natural (mostly water vapor); only 2% are from man-made sources.

    This contradicts the information given from the UN @ http://unfccc.int/ and
    http://ghg.unfccc.int/

    CO2 is considered a man made source!

    ØBy most accounts, man-made emissions have had no more than a minuscule impact on the climate. Although the climate has warmed slightly in the last 100 years, 70% percent of that warming occurred prior to 1940, before the upsurge in greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes. (Dr. Robert C. Balling, Arizona State University)

    Yes, most temperatue rise was before the 1940s.
    But just have a look at the following (even though it’s a model from 1995, i hope you can see the point that i want to make:)
    http://www.dkrz.de/dkrz/publikationen/klimamodelle/physbl_15.html#HEADING16

    look at the first graph:
    The temperature rise from most models is not a linear rise (which means, it has grown by 0.7 in the last 120 years, it will grow by 0.7 in the next 120) but exponential!
    Just because most ppl (esp. economists) are too stupid to understand that, doesn’t mean it’s less threatening.
    An example of exponential growth:
    Assume you have a pond, and a sea-rose, which grows in the there.
    last year, the sea rose covered one quarter of the pond, this year, half of the pond.
    linear growth: each year, one qurter is covered more => two years until its full
    exponential growth: each year, the size doubles => next year the rose covers all.

    ØA Gallup survey indicated that only 17% of the members of the American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Society thought the warming of the 20th century was the result of an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

    Wan’t it you as well, who was opposing single statistics so vehemently, bcause they usualy are biased?
    Why do you believe them now anyway?
    And for this point: If i spend more time, i am sure i find one that contradicts this one as well.

    If global warming occurs, will it be harmful?

    ØThe idea that global warming would melt the ice caps and flood coastal cities seems to be mere science fiction. A slight increase in temperature – whether natural or mankind induced – is not likely to lead to a massive melting of the earth ice caps, as sometimes claimed in the media. Also, sea-level rises over the centuries relate more to warmer and thus expanding oceans, not to melting ice caps.

    that is one point. the more decisive point is the possible change of sea currents.
    Ever heard of “El Nino”? And how it seems to come on more often?

    ØContrary to some groups’ fear mongering about the threat of diseases, temperature changes are likely to have little effect on the spread of diseases. Experts say that deterioration in public health practices such as rapid urbanization without adequate infrastructure, forced large scale resettlement of people, increased drug resistance, higher mobility through air travel, and lack of insect-control programs have the greatest impact on the spread of vector-borne diseases.

    Never heard of this concern, i don’t think that it is really asimportant as the direct climatic changes.

    ØLarger quantities of CO2 in the atmosphere and warmer climates would likely lead to an increase in vegetation. During warm periods in history vegetation flourished, at one point allowing the Vikings to farm in now frozen Greenland.

    That is even more simplistic thinking than the one you accuse in nowadays models. “Warming” can lead to areas become colder. It will change the ocean currents, and this has a huge impact on temperatures and rainfall.

    My point of view:
    We don’t know a lot about our impact on the climate and the ecology.
    We know that any changes there work on a long timescale.
    Therefore, we should minimize our impact as much as possible, until we know more.
    In case the impact of our actions is big and dangerous, we are on the safe side. In case it isn’t, we have saved ressources and lost nothing.
    I just think we are not prepared to take the risk.
    For an analogy: would you do unsafe sex with everyone, hoping that (a) you don’t infect yourself with the HIV and (b) that if you do, the scientists find a cure beofre you die…. or rather practice safe sex?

    Second, we have a finite amount of energy, coming from the sun. If we use up more energy than that, we live on reserves, which we are not able to refresh (until we get a clean fusion reactor).
    Especially carbon-hydrates, like oil, have proven to be a versatile ressource for many things, like the chemical industrie. burning it for moving or just burning it for heating is a waste of ressources.



  • And of course: A newer model, which beside teh CO2 concentration takes into account the sun activity and vulcanic activities, from Bonn supports the results of a british team:
    The warm period in the 20th is explainable by sun and vulcans, the warm period nowadays only is explainable through the rise in the CO2 concentration.
    ( look for an article in Nature, January 2001, by Andrey Ganopolski and Stefan Rahmstorf).

    A good FAQ is:
    http://www.gcrio.org/ipcc/qa/cover.html



  • that was me again, Falk



  • as a person in the middle of Canada, i very much look forward to warmer temperatures. Too bad we keep setting records for colder ones.



  • Well I’m screwed anyways since I live in one of them ‘“heat island” effect around major cities’ And if I have to say, before the DMV forced drivers to install catalectic converters on their cars due to the emissions, the smog in Los Angeles was terrible (so bad that PE could no longer be a class in many schools). Not to say pollution isn’t still a problem in LA, but I have to say its gotten noticeable better.



  • Global warming, Today, really isn’t much of a concern. But other envirmental concerns will come up. You cannot die Man is causing the reduction of forests, extinction of species, and basic destruction of nature. As Humans expand, more and more will die. You know as well as I eventually we will destroy our own civilization eventually at this rate. Thats why we need to start changing today.



  • @Yanny:

    Global warming, Today, really isn’t much of a concern. But other envirmental concerns will come up. You cannot die Man is causing the reduction of forests, extinction of species, and basic destruction of nature. As Humans expand, more and more will die. You know as well as I eventually we will destroy our own civilization eventually at this rate. Thats why we need to start changing today.

    as i said in the alien post. We are parasites on this earth. We really don’t do anything good for it. Even our excrement which should be at least allowed to access the earth is sent to the OCEAN where it won’t do any land any good.
    soon the aliens will come, and ask us “so what good have you done for the earth relative to the bad”,
    and we’ll say “whoops”.
    and they’ll kill us all. Or make us work the salt mines. That will suck. I’ll suck up to them of course . . . they can always use a human doctor, right?



  • Ah, you “small-picture” folks never understand 😛
    Why suck up when you can work from the inside to destroy the system and the “Man?” Remember, aim higher during human slavement. I’d settle for at least Underground Prison Camp Leader.



  • @TG:

    Ah, you “small-picture” folks never understand 😛
    Why suck up when you can work from the inside to destroy the system and the “Man?” Remember, aim higher during human slavement. I’d settle for at least Underground Prison Camp Leader.

    better stock up on your smokes . . . .



  • Nah, smoking kills you 😛
    Don’t you want to live forever?



  • Watch “The Greenhouse Conspiracy”. It takes eery part of global wamring and disproves it, including things like the CO2 doubling.



  • When you talk global warming you talking in time periods of at least tens of thousands to millions of years. Has the industrial revolution to now effected the overall earth climate? I’d say no looking at it in an evolutionary time scale. Alledgedly, we are in a warm phase of the Ice Age. Will we stop the glaciers from advancing again in the next ten thousand or so years? Who knows!!!



  • Is global warming happening? Yes. To what extreme? We simply don’t know yet. How about all the methane the ocean releases? That eats up the O-Zone. The o-zone hole has supposedly got smaller. Is that because america is usiong less r-12? But then how about China?

    All I know is this…reading a time magazine a man said something very intelligent. In the 1300s, trhe vikings farmed on both Greenland and Iceland.

    Try that now.



  • Yeah, i agree that the earth goes through changes or cycles. And like FM said, supposedly we are in a warm phase of the Ice Age. The question is, are we affecting it? Probably, but we’ll won’t know to what extent (maybe very little). The models we use today are very limited due to technology and variables.



  • @Field:

    When you talk global warming you talking in time periods of at least tens of thousands to millions of years. Has the industrial revolution to now effected the overall earth climate? I’d say no looking at it in an evolutionary time scale. Alledgedly, we are in a warm phase of the Ice Age. Will we stop the glaciers from advancing again in the next ten thousand or so years? Who knows!!!

    Global warming happens on a much faster scale than 10^4 to 10^6 years. Still, it’s longer or comaparable to the human life time, therefore (as you as a person do not really sees it happening) mankind likes to ignore that.
    Our models are getting better, i think it will take about 10 years until we have a good model. Let’s hope that the damage done until then is not too bad.



  • So just by chance earth is entering a “warm cycle” during the time that we are polluting it most? I don’t believe in coincidences.



  • @TG:

    Yeah, i agree that the earth goes through changes or cycles. And like FM said, supposedly we are in a warm phase of the Ice Age. The question is, are we affecting it? Probably, but we’ll won’t know to what extent (maybe very little). The models we use today are very limited due to technology and variables.

    THe problem is that the extend could be huge and long term, we should assume that the “worst case” scenario is true, and act to prevent that. Even though we maybe do “too much” that’s much better than ruining the future of all mankind.



  • The problem is public support. Most people here (well at least where I live), don’t know about GW (maybe) or don’t seem to care (more likely). A classic example would be:

    “When I get married, I’m going to have 6 kids!”
    “Isn’t that a little much, with over population and all?”
    “Who cares, I’ll be long dead before that happens! Nobody is going to care about 6 more people in a world of 6 billion!”

    Many scientist agree that the a lot of what we do today (depletion, pollution) won’t have any effects until hundreds, maybe even thousands of years from now. The question is, can people change their selfish attitude of, “Well, who cares? I’ll be dead by then.”



  • F_alk - That’s the reason for not polluting. The earth will survive us. But future human generations may not, along with other species - talk about genocide…

    The other thing to consider is past pollution. Scientists tell us that in the earth’s past there have been periods of high vulcanism. Much worse, longer lasting, and toxic than anything we’ve thrown in the air. The earth survived. I’m not saying this to justify our polluting to kill our children, but the earth will outlive us…if that’s any help…

    Remember, the fate of all species is extinction. Even ours…



  • I read abut an experiment that was looking at the effects of CO2 doubling on plants. It showed that when given double the CO2, the plants became twice as large. So this increase in CO2 is increasing the size of our plants and crops, which is essential in feeding the increasing populations of the world.



  • Huh, you don’t say? Talk about lucking out :roll:



  • @Field:

    F_alk - That’s the reason for not polluting. The earth will survive us. But future human generations may not, along with other species - talk about genocide…Remember, the fate of all species is extinction. Even ours…

    A nice quote of one of the ecologists movements in germany:

    The nature does not need humans.
    But humans need the nature!



  • @EmuGod:

    I read abut an experiment that was looking at the effects of CO2 doubling on plants. It showed that when given double the CO2, the plants became twice as large. So this increase in CO2 is increasing the size of our plants and crops, which is essential in feeding the increasing populations of the world.

    Damn stupid plants, why can’t they grow in a few km height, where the CO2 is important for the greenhouse effect….



  • @Yanny:

    So just by chance earth is entering a “warm cycle” during the time that we are polluting it most? I don’t believe in coincidences.

    50/50 chance. The Earth is always either warming up or cooling down.


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