Best way to sneak up on UK


  • 2007 AAR League

    @cyan:

    if you build 3 trns for UK 2, then your battleship can protect the trns and will not make it viable for germany to attack. if your attack does fail the US can always finish the job.

    Unless you are planning on having the US navy consolidate with your 1 bb, 3 trn, this is probably not a good idea.  We are assuming the GER air remains intact.  1 bmb 6 fgt vs. 3 trn 1 bb -> GER only loses 2 fgt to squash your navy.  If US does consolidate in SZ7 to protect UK navy (this is on US2), they would only be able to do so with starting navy of 1 des, 2 trn (any US1 builds can’t reach there yet).  And these trn would have to offload onto UK (they are not going to take WEU, and can’t unload to anywhere else) so Allies are still not landing anything into Europe or Africa until round 3 earliest.



  • @cyan:

    i believe that 1sub,1destoyer and 1 fig is a better buy

    Yeah, I was looking at that too.  If you’re going to do the attack, that may be a better way to do it.  You can also take a hit on a ftr to preserve the des.  That COULD leave you with:

    5tra 1sub 3des 1btl

    That’s 1sub from Russia, 2tra 1des from EUS, 1des from PAN (moves to Z11 R1; won’t be attacked), 3tra 1des 1btl from UK.

    That’s not all bad.  That’s doable.

    Of course, you’re still anticipating that you win the battle in Z07 with not-great odds.  But that’s getting there.  As a German player, however, I’d still pay the 24 IPCs to kill those planes, boats, and have a chance to win the battle.  And again, it won’t work against a carrier unification plan.

    Any other ways to hit Z07 worth exploring?  2bmr?  Planned UK/US rotation on Z07?  We haven’t yet looked at a serious UK strafe/US clean up plan.

    When should the UK pull back?  Should the US build car/bmr to put more gear on Z07 R2?

    Peace



  • yay, I looked at the 2 bombers and its 55% sucees rate. also i looked at 3 subs which is the worst at 52%.  trying to leave 1 battleship for the us only boost tour surviabilty to 70% the us cant handle anything more than that beacuse there a chance(30%) that the destroyer will live too. when i ran the battle I did let the figs die first.

    @rjclayton:

    @cyan:

    if you build 3 trns for UK 2, then your battleship can protect the trns and will not make it viable for germany to attack. if your attack does fail the US can always finish the job.

    Unless you are planning on having the US navy consolidate with your 1 bb, 3 trn, this is probably not a good idea.  We are assuming the GER air remains intact.  1 bmb 6 fgt vs. 3 trn 1 bb -> GER only loses 2 fgt to squash your navy.  If US does consolidate in SZ7 to protect UK navy (this is on US2), they would only be able to do so with starting navy of 1 des, 2 trn (any US1 builds can’t reach there yet).  And
    these trn would have to offload onto UK (they are not going to take WEU, and can’t unload to anywhere else) so Allies are still not landing anything into Europe or Africa until round 3 earliest.

    what are the russians doing all this time? if they see germany buying navy then they should fully expliote that. germany will be using no airunits on the eastren front. germany is going to hurt if it does that. there will be less battles germany can do and it will lose more units. russia should be able to make a lot of progress in in europe. the reason germany only bought 3 trns instead of 5 is that they need to drive russia back.

    with the car option with 2 figs on it, theres a less than 23% chance for either mine or rjclayton’s idea to work. so you have to stop germany  from uniting its fleet. if the Algeria is taken US1 then russia can land figs there. so if russia builds 1 fig(which i’ve always been agianst but now see the benfeits) then it can stop the unifaction.



  • Hello all! 1st timer here. Nice to see that there are others out there who enjoy playing and strategizing as much as I do. A lot of interesting points made. It would seem to me that you all know your stuff. If I were to go against the UK with any one of you controlling the Allies it would be because I have lost my mind and do not feel like playing anymore :). In other words……I would not do it unless the Allied person was a newb and he forgot to make any purchases. That’s just me though. Tough nut to crack and leaves you very vulnerable. I have tried it early in the game against a less experienced player and survived with one tank left. Don’t think it will ever happen again.



  • I’ve actually never played the allies for revised  :oops: this is all counter startegy(cause Japan is the best).


  • 2007 AAR League

    @cyan:

    I’ve actually never played the allies for revised  :oops: this is all counter startegy(cause Japan is the best).

    Eeenngggg, wrong, nope.  Germany is the best! Germany is teh pawnage!!!1111!!!1111!!!11!!1 CHINAINFISFORNOOBS!!! :mrgreen:



  • what are the russians doing all this time? if they see germany buying navy then they should fully expliote that. germany will be using no airunits on the eastren front. germany is going to hurt if it does that. there will be less battles germany can do and it will lose more units. russia should be able to make a lot of progress in in europe. the reason germany only bought 3 trns instead of 5 is that they need to drive russia back.

    Good point… for sure Russia should get aggressive round 2 if the Germans invest heavily in the kriegsmarine. Also, another easy stopper to the German fleet linkup is to dump the russian sub into SZ6 (that is, if it’s still alive after round 1).



  • woops - goofed up the quote on the last post…


  • 2007 AAR League

    A small blocker in SZ6 won’t prevent the linkup.  Germany can simply sink the sub with it’s fighters and still do the linkup in non-combat movement.



  • There is always the massed UK fleet in SZ6 option….

    1 BB, 1 DST, 1 TRN, 1 AC, 2 FIG, and 1 USSR SUB.

    Makes for a pretty nasty force for the Germans to deal with.  Sure, the UK loses their fleet, but the German’s lose theirs, and a nice chunk of the Luftwaffe as well

    With anythign less than 5 FIGs, there is no Baltic fleet left to make the link.  With less than 4 FIGs, the Luftwaffe ends up pretty thin after the battle…
    And the US counter on the Med Fleet and/or any Baltic remnants is going to be UGLY for Germany…



  • Hey Switch.

    Can we hold off on option 3 (Z06 block) for a few more posts?  I think we’re close to wrapping up option 2 - the counterattack against the unified fleet.

    1. As other posters have pointed out, it looks like we have the two best UK attack purchases: 3ftr for raw hitting power or 1sub 1des 1ftr for defensive holding power.  2bmr/3sub are not viable options.

    2. I asked about the rotating attack option where you start with the UK but finish with the US.  Let’s walk through what it looks like.  If you plan on hitting Z07 with the UK, you can pull back before you clear the zone.  That would enable you to retreat to Z08, which in turn enables you to unite with US boats built R1.  That means UK can build 3tra R2, preserve their battleship, and rely on the US to supply another capital ship for defense against the German planes.

    The US, then, would want to look for a first round kill against whatever grey boats remain.  You could have a max US force of 2tra 2des 3ftr 1bmr + purchase.  And actually, for true max value the Pearl Harbor ftr might live.  Let’s assume it dies 😉

    You don’t want to have boats left in Z07, so the way you would do it is to send in just enough fodder (tra + des) to absorb hits but still kill all the boats.  The UK can’t get enough hits in one round to justify the strafe (too much left for the US), so you’re going to need to go two rounds.  That means you need to buy 1sub 1des 1ftr with the UK or the battleship is very likely to get hit by a sub R2.

    So you would have this:
    UK: 2tra 1sub 1des 1btl 3ftr 1bmr : oPunch = 22 : oHits = 4
    Ger: 5tra 3sub 1des 1btl : dPunch = 18 : dHits = 3

    After one round:
    UK: 1sub 1des 1btl 3ftr 1bmr : oPunch = 22 : oHits = 4
    Ger: 2tra 3sub 1des 1btl : dPunch = 15 : dHits = 3

    After two rounds, the most common outcome is:
    UK: 1btl 2ftr 1bmr (if you’re retreating to Z08, you probably don’t need the destroyer, but you could lose another ftr instead)
    Ger: 1sub 1des 1btl : dPunch = 9 : dHits = 2 : dCount = 4

    So with the US you want to put 4 hits on the Germans while only exposing 2 cheap casualties.

    We have: 2tra 2des 3ftr 1bmr + purchase.  We don’t want to send in more than 2tra because whatever lives in Z07 will be Planed down by Germany.Â

    US: 2tra 3ftr 1bmr: oPunch = 13 : oHits = 2

    We need more juice.  We can either send in a destroyer or two, or buy planes R1 to hit Z07.  We can buy ftrs to do that if we also buy a carrier for them to start on.  We need 12 punch more for FRK (first round kill).  That would mean sending in both des and buying 1car 2ftr.  Hmph.Â

    Or we could skip FRK and just go for the win using all 4 green boats.  Wasteful.  Hmph.

    Ok, that walkthrough makes me not a fan of a rotating attack.  The benefit of the rotation was supposed to be to try and preserve Allied boats, but because you risk getting stuck in Z07 with either fleet, the rotation is not very economical.

    You can’t count on a third UK strafing round because you could take out the German boats and then the UK would have moved up beyond the protection of the US R1 build.  If the UK built transports, you’re in trouble.

    I think if you’re going for the option of killing the United Fleet, you just need to go all the way with the UK.

    I think the earlier summary stands with a couple modifications:

    Pro Z07 attack w/ 3ftr purchase: German navy dies 67% of the time from the UK; US can finish off remainder.
    Con Z07 attack w/ 3ftr purchase: Starting UK navy dies R2.  R1 purchase dies R2.  Fleet unprotected.  Significant chance of a bad outcome in Z07 attack.  No troops in Africa for UK earlier than R3.
    Misc: Buying 1sub 1des 1ftr allows you to defend Z07 in conjunction with a UK naval build R2; a rotating attack from UK/US is not as good as you might think so you’re probably better off with planning on the UK as the primary attack and US only on cleanup from bad dice.

    That summary says you can take out the unified fleet, but it’s not pretty.  I’m still happy as the Germans.

    Anyone see anything major missed in that?



  • UK1: buys 1bb (sounds crazy but wait)
    US1: buys 3 bmb move figs t e. canada and the uk.
    UK2: attacks for 1 round. takes out on averge 2 trns(while they lose 1)
    US2: atacks with2 Fig, 4 Bom, 2 Tra, 1 Des. v. Defender: 3 Tra, 3 Sub, 1 Des, 1 Bat
    theres a 1/5 cance of keeping all bombers)(whcih is the median) the a 96% the defender will die there a 20% chance of geting 3 bombers and 10% of getting 2 bombers alive.



  • i assumed that the trns would die first this is actually worse for germany. now that i let the trns die after the subs theres a 90% chance of  the US succeding(worse than 95%) now its:
    19.13% 4 Bom.  - 14.89% 3 Bom.      - 10.3% 2 Bom.          - 5.52% 1 Bom.

    if germany wants to perserve its subs it will have to take tehm as a last cassualty and still therees only a 49% chance of sruvival.
    Sub 3 20.91% Sub 2: 13.31% Sub 1: 14.13%
    the US will have all 4 bombers and maybe a fig.  germany gives up 1 extra hit on the us(10 ipcs) in exchange to flip a coin and see if at least 1 sub lives. so depeding on how well the us did 1st round it may be worth it to save teh subs.(even though will be worthless unless you plan on rebuilding)



  • US1 has only 42ipc’s to spend…3 bom=45ipcs…

    also to backtrack a little… if both uk and us lose their trn on rd2 than with africa, germany is offsetting the delay of not purchasing(as many) ground units on g1.
    in this case blocking in SZ12 and taking algeria might not be the best option

    on a side note i dont see the point in 2trns i think you gotta go for three.(or a carrier)



  • talk about a stupid mistake. i’'ll go see if it will work with 2 bombers.



  • i mean algeria MIGHT BE the best option.  sorry grammar error



  • now i ran it with 23 bmbs instead of 4 and got a 70% success rate. if germany saves the subs to subemge then it is a 85% that a germany unit will live(3 subs being the most likely at 42%) the median result for the us is 2 bmbs survive(15 % ) if germany decides to use it’s subs. if it decides to save them(killing the bb if necessary) it has a 25% chance of 3 bmb living. the good thing about this option is  that the UK can still attack noraway (if left emptied) and the US will be able to build a trn and inf or artillery. even though this allows more flexible there a good chance if germany rebuilds there going to be another naval battle(UK/US 3 or 4). the only thing this guarantees is that germany won’t be able to attack the UK on GER 3. Ger will loss 76 ipcs(16 on UK turn and 60 on the us turn) while there will be a loss of 8(UK) + 48(us)= 56 ipcs. the allies keep the UK navy and deal 20 ipcs of damage to Germany with the option of taking Norway or Algeria on R2.  also the us may be able to sbr germany latter. Germany meanwhile gains delaying the Atlantic threat and optimizes its navy. germany may even be able to start a new navy with the 3 subs present.



  • Well, at this point we have identified several varaitions of attacking the United Fleet in Z07.  Not all of them work against both a German transport build and a carrier build, but you CAN sink that fleet.

    The problem with all the solutions is the same: Germany spends 24 IPCs (or 16 for the carrier) to trigger major offensive spending by the UK, and the Allies are significantly slowed down.

    As a German player, I’m still uniting that fleet.  It’s money and pieces well spent.

    Let’s go back to Switch’s post for option 3:

    UK buys 1des 1car.  Everything moves to Z06 for the block.

    So we get this:
    Ger: 4tra 2sub 1des 5ftr 1bmr (assume the 6th ftr is in LIB)
    UK: 1tra 1sub 1des 1car 1btl 2ftr

    The calculated outcome on that is:
    Ger: 1sub 1des 5ftr 1bmr

    Germany loses 40 IPCs of gear; Allies lose 88 IPCs of gear.  The Luftwaffe is alive to threaten planes, so the Allies are still going to need to build capital ships in the water.  The remaining German boats are likely killed by US air power, but they may take out a plane or a boat so it is hard to quantify that exaclty.  In the ensuing counterattack to Z06, the Axis lose another 20 IPCs and the Allies lose 8-12 depending on what they send in.

    Look about right?

    If those are the numbers, then I think we’ve run through the major variants to countering the United Fleet, and every one of them is not bad for the Germans.  The IPC trade is favorable in each case.

    Which leads to looking at the alternative: if you DON’T set up to unite the fleets, UK is building tra R1 and landing R2.

    Two parts are necessary for a successful German naval gambit:

    1. The Baltic fleet must be pumped up R1.
    2. The Med fleet must take Gibraltar R1.

    If you don’t build Baltic boats, they die to the UK air force.  If you build Baltic navy but you don’t take Gibraltar to set up the unification, now the Allies can land safely in Algeria or attack the Baltic fleet in Z07.

    There is no cheap, easy way to stop the unification.  The unification can be done, but only by making the Allies pay a heavy price.

    Thoughts?



  • it gives a huge advantage to germany if it unites its fleet. however it is conterable. what if the us moves  to blockade the med fleet while the uk moves to stop the baltic fleet. how would germany respond if
    Ger 1: takes giblatar and builds 2 trns
    UK 1: moves everthing to sz 06  and builds 1 destoyer, 1Car
    US 1: moves 2trns and 1 destroyer to sz 12 and takes algeria.



  • Ooof… I think that’s worse.

    You still send all the gear to Z06 that can make it, just like before, but you also pop Z12 with the Med fleet +1ftr (LIB).

    It’s:
    Ger: 1tra 1sub 1ftr 1btl
    US: 2tra 1des

    The calculated outcome is that the Germans don’t lose a single unit in Z12 and still smash Z06.

    Good question to ask, but I think the definitive answer is that you get your lunch eaten if you do that.



  • @CrazyStraw:

    Good question to ask, but I think the definitive answer is that you get your lunch eaten if you do that.

    yeah i knew the american swould be anilalated but i thought it would make germany have to weaken it attack in sz 06 to do it . but if england lets germay link up in sz 7 coulnd’t germany atack england with
    5 Inf, 3 Arm, 5 Fig, 1 Bom, 1 Bat. v.  4 Inf, 2 Art, 2 Arm, 3 Fig. i don’t know if i put all the units there but that would leave a 70% of germany taking England(if it lets its planes die)? so how would leting the german fleet unite be a good idea?


  • Moderator

    Was the 1-2 strafe discounted?

    I think that is a great move.  You can’t assume bad play by the US player.
    Rd 1 they’ll drop an AC with 2 ftrs into the Atlantic.  They’ll have 5 ftrs, 1 bom, 1 dd 2 trns to play with.

    Likewise UK can buy either 3 ftrs or 2 ftrs + something else.

    With a 3 ftr buy the UK doe not necessarily have to commit their trns and BB to the battle.  You can simply go airforce, it will cost you 65 IPC but you kill 3-4 units (probably subs).  It is a bad trade for UK but US mops up not having to worry about sub strikes.

    Ultimately you trade 113 worth of units for the 100 IPC for Ger and UK still has its BB and US has 3-4 plnes left with AC and BB/trn on the way.

    However, I think the better option is the 2-3 ftr UK 1 buy and smash Germany for 1 rd (possibly 2).  If Ger keeps the subs retreat out of there and keep you bb alive (don’t risk the first strike - let the US airforce pummel the subs for no risk), if they kill the subs go a second round.

    US can still clean up with it choice of 5 ftrs, 1 bom, 1 dd, 2 trns.

    With the strafe option you end up trading about 70-90 worth of Allied units for 100 of German. (5 trns, 3 subs, 1 dd, 1 bb)

    This neither sets the Allies back or forces them to buy anything other then trns and troops from rd 2 on.  US still has an AC and BB and UK should still have its BB.

    I don’t necessarily think it is a good gamble to “hope” your opponent makes a mistake so you can capitalize.

    Let them unify, then crush them with the good ole 1-2.



  • @DarthMaximus:

    Was the 1-2 strafe discounted?
    Let them unify, then crush them with the good ole 1-2.

    yeah i talked about in here. the uk has to buy a bb and only battles for 1 round(the us is doing most of the work)

    @cyan:

    UK1: buys 1bb (sounds crazy but wait)
    US1: buys 2 bmb move figs t e. canada and the uk.
    UK2: attacks for 1 round. takes out on averge 2 trns(while they lose 1)
    US2: atacks with2 Fig, 4 Bom, 2 Tra, 1 Des. v. Defender: 3 Tra, 3 Sub, 1 Des, 1 Bat

    @cyan:

    now i ran it with 3 bmbs instead of 4 and got a 70% success rate. if germany saves the subs to subemge then it is a 85% that a germany unit will live(3 subs being the most likely at 42%) the median result for the us is 2 bmbs survive(15 % ) if germany decides to use it’s subs. if it decides to save them(killing the bb if necessary) it has a 25% chance of 3 bmb living. the good thing about this option is  that the UK can still attack noraway (if left emptied) and the US will be able to build a trn and inf or artillery. even though this allows more flexible there a good chance if germany rebuilds there going to be another naval battle(UK/US 3 or 4). the only thing this guarantees is that germany won’t be able to attack the UK on GER 3. Ger will loss 76 ipcs(16 on UK turn and 60 on the us turn) while there will be a loss of 8(UK) + 48(us)= 56 ipcs. the allies keep the UK navy and deal 20 ipcs of damage to Germany with the option of taking Norway or Algeria on R2.  also the us may be able to sbr germany latter. Germany meanwhile gains delaying the Atlantic threat and optimizes its navy. germany may even be able to start a new navy with the 3 subs present.


  • Moderator

    UK should buy either 2 ftrs + troops (ship??)
    or 3 ftrs

    US should follow up with AC and 2 ftrs.



  • Hey Darth.

    Oh, I think you’re right on many points.  I agree with you that the attack in Z07 is better than blockading Z06 or Z12. Â

    I’m not quite sure what you meant by “You can’t assume bad play by the US player.”  I don’t THINK, I am, but I may have missed something.  I think you’re referring to the options I laid out for the US attack on R2 because you plan on buying car/2ftr.  That is stronger for the Z07 attack, but again, by purchasing 3tra (or 1car) with the Germans, you are causing the Allies to buy 5ftr (roughly) plus capital ships.

    That’s just great for Germany.  Germans want to see anything other than transports and ground units.

    The statement that drives this debate for me is, “I don’t think any decent allied player would allow germany to unite their fleet in Z07.  It’s easy to spot, and easily countered.”

    My whole point is that the counters aren’t easy, and that Germany likes forcing the Allies to use those counters.

    The only thing I dislike about the Allied rotating attack is that you have to buy a lot of gear that is not destined to take land.  But it may be the best you can do.

    Peace


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