First, you should join the Yahoo group “caspian sub”, and read Policy Paper 13 (ish). It describes a possible and implementable threat on London by German transports. It’s really pretty good. But BE SURE TO READ THE LIMITATIONS LISTING, because there are circumstances under which you shouldn’t even try any kind of Sea Lion (Russia fighters at Moscow is one)
Second, with either carrier/3 transports, or a 5 transpot build, Germany is dead. There are different ways the Germans can take advantage of a super heavy Baltic naval build, including holding Norway and using it as a reliable fighter base, helping to protect Western Europe, and bridging infantry straight from Germany to Karelia. Also, Germany can do a very strong Atlantic stall, and any UK plans are delayed because of the forced defense of London. But these advantages are far outweighted (in my opinion) by the fact that there are no German infantry builds on G1, which are really needed pretty badly in the initial turns.
Say that first turn, the Germans had an African bid, so can afford to take Anglo-Egypt without using the Mediterranean transport, and that the Med transport instead heads west along with the German battleship and unites with the German Atlantic sub and perhaps 1-2 German fighters to attack the UK battleship at Gibraltar (also say the Germans take Gibraltar with 1 infantry for various reasons I will not go into here). Also say the Germans built 5 transports in the Baltic.
Now, I am going to ASSUME that Russian fighters are NOT in range of London. I am going to assume that the Russian fighters are parked at Caucasus. See following.
The German threat on London on G2 is 6 transports from the Baltic (say it’s unstoppable), and 1 transport/battleship support shot from the Mediterranean that can be stopped with a Russian sub. (Say that the Russian sub joins the UK battleship/transport on Russia 1; the Russian sub can then go to the sea zone west of Algeria on Russia 2 to block the German battleship and transport from helping in the battle).
So, as Germany, you can count on 6 inf 6 tank 5-6 fighter and a bomber. Let us assume the best case scenario, that Russia did not take any territory that had a German fighter in it on Russia 1. (You COULD also say that is NOT the best case scenario, because Russia committing enough forces to take a territory with a German fighter in it has its own particular problems).
Now, the UK can see the attack coming a mile away. So it builds 5 inf 3 tanks and moves over the tank from E. Canada. This is not enough against a determined German attack, so the US can send in its two Eastern US transports on US1.
So now the attacking force is 6 inf 6 tank 6 fighter 1 bomber. Defending force is 2 bomber (1 UK, 1 US), 9 inf (2 start in London, 5 are built on UK1, 2 come from the US), 2 art (1 UK, 1 US) 5 tank (1 starts in London, 1 from E. Canada, 3 built), 3 fighter (2 UK, 1 US), plus AA gun. Count the artillery as infantry for the purposes of defense, and you have
6 inf 6 tank 6 fighter 1 bomber
2 bomber 11 inf 5 tank 3 fighter AA gun
Ohit 46, dhit AA gun plus 51.
Now there’s this whole balance thing with the AA gun, because if you attack and lose 2 or more fighters to AA fire, you are attacking 40 into 51, and if the opponent chooses to kill the bombers to be safe, Germany is probably not going to take London, and the Germans will be out their starting infantry build AND two fighters, which is just too much to recover from, I believe. If you even lose ONE fighter to AA gun, the chances in London are still not that great.
Only after calculating the possible straight out losses due to the AA gun should you start to calculate the possibility that no German air will die to AA and the subsequent attack on London. But even then, you’re sending 46 at 51. Not bad at all, given the skew of the units. But hardly a sure thing, or even close to a sure thing, considering the fact that Germany sacrificed its entire first turn build to get that point and took an enormous chance in even trying to invade London in the first place.
At this point, I will mention that if the Russian fighters were in range of London, Germany will fail any invasion attempt of London. Pushing the 51 up to 59 skews the London attack so far in favor of the Allies, well, let’s just say it’s pretty skewed.
But of course, the Germans do not have to butt heads against London at all. They can potentially unite the gigantic Baltic fleet with the Mediterranean fleet on G2, and use that fleet to cruise around making trouble for the Allies. But if the Germans unite the fleet, those transports won’t be used to bridge infantry from Germany to Karelia, making the German front that much weaker. And really, there is only so much Germany can do with those transports. Trying to invade the US, trying to mess around with Brazil, setting up a threat by transport drop to Archangel, protecting Norway/Western Europe - all nice, but those do not really offset the fact (I believe) that Germany doesn’t have those early reinforcements against Russia.
What are the POSSIBILITIES of a G1 heavy transport build? What possibilities for victories exist with that plan?
First, the US is forced to build ground reinforcements to UK on US1, because of the possibility of 5 MORE German transports on G2. So the Allies cannot really go turbo KJF in response to Germany’s transport build. If Germany decisively takes London, then switches to pure infantry for Berlin and Rome, Russia WILL be knocking on Berlin’s door, but will be forced back. So combine the fact of the mighty German fleet with the fact that the US is pretty much forced to sacrifice two transports early to reinforce London, and the game becomes at least playable for Germany. Since Japan cannot be immediately threatened, and Germany’s Atlantic game is strong, the Axis can make a play for Africa, and try to stall the Allies out in the Atlantic and/or Pacific until Moscow falls.
The problem is, though, that Russia has so much early territory that it has to be slowly pushed back from, so it can use the advance time plus resource gain to build even more units that Germany has to fight through to win Moscow.
Second, is the G2 transport build, or the Canadian Shield (Caspian Sub paper 14, I think, be sure to read the LIMITATIONS on the paper).