the 7inf ukraine bid ain’t that tough - many players are now bidding 24 and are perfectly willing to face 6inf, 1arm or 8inf in ukr. here’s what i do as allies:
turn: russia 1
purchase: 8inf
combat: 3inf, 3arm, 1ftr vs eastern europe; 1ftr, 1sub vs bal sz
results: russia has an ok chance to win all three battles (about 50% by my estimation), and if it does the game is basically over for the axis. taking eeu cuts off much needed armour in seu and ger from the round 1 karelia assault by germany. wiping out the german navy ensures that either both uk transports survive or that the germans have to divert airforce from the karelia battle to take them out. if eastern europe turns into a great strafe opportunity (say, 4 attacker hits to 0-1 defender hits) then leave that ftr alone, retreat, and stack karelia. in that particular case germany won’t be able to crack karelia without spreading itself way too thin.
noncombat: unless there is an obvious dice disaster (you don’t take eeu, or the german trn in bal sz survives) then place everything in karelia and send the siberian units west. karelia should have 16inf, 2ftr, aa; russia 2inf, aa; nov 3inf, 1arm; yak 1inf; sfe 1inf; cau 1inf move your trn to hud sz to help out the canadian trn.
turn: germany 1
purchase: depends on how russia did. maybe 10-11 inf and bunker, or maybe 6arm and go out in a blaze of glory. 4inf, 4arm is a good purchase for moderation
combat: ?? if russia has won all three of its attacks i welcome the german assault on karelia. an attack of 13inf, 3arm, 4ftr, 1bmb (everything) wins about 75% of the time, but doesn’t take with enough land units to defend against the uk’s counter attack of 2inf, 1arm, 3ftr, 1bmb, 1bb. germany can sacrifice planes to take with more ground units, but that’ll get them in trouble quickly.
turn: uk 1
purchase: ?? likely 2trn, 3inf, 1arm
combat: ?? with 8 (maybe even 9) or less german units in karelia attack with everything (2inf, 1arm, 3ftr, 1bmb). taking the territory is critical because you want russia to be able to build there next turn. if the germans sacrificed air to put more in karelia then eeu, f/n and weu should be ripe for the picking (killing any armour that germany used to retake eeu from russia). in that case i move all my air to russia and build boats and infantry quickly to pressure germany asap. even if russia and uk lose their entire airforces but russia holds karelia at the beginning of russia 2 i think they hold it for the rest of the game.
turn: japan 1
purchase: ?? likely 2trn, 3inf
combat: ?? japan can’t make really significant gains too quickly with out a bid. they will attack china, but if they go for all those attractive targets (chi, ind, haw, haw sz, yak, and sfe) they will do more damage to themselves than to the allies.
turn: usa 1
purchase: ?? maybe 4trn, 1inf; maybe 3trn, 4inf
combat: this should be a fun turn. usa gets to take whatever uk left over in europe (f/n or weu). there might also be a really good chance for a counter in pearl if japan attacked lightly so they could send more units into asia.
well that’s about it. can’t strategize more than one turn out. and i probably forgot something so fire away at my strategy. but i think that if everything goes average (and by that i mean that half the scenarios are better for the axis and the other half are better for the allies) then i think the allies have about a 55% chance of winning this game. and if you are making a bid as the axis where you only expect to win 45% of the time then you are making the wrong bid!