I agree, DM, it does telegraph and there’s some luck in the dice in Karelia, but given a decent shake, you’re facing over whelming odds in Karelia. (Remember, Russia has NO units to use on R2 if they attack EE and mass Karelia since Germany just kills them all off without loosing a single tank.)
That isn’t really true. Â Russia can have 2 inf and 1 arm (eve, sfe).
Russia can strafe EE, and have 16 inf, 3 arm 2 ftrs in Kar.
Or
they can attack with 3 inf, 2 arm, 1 ftr and have 16 inf, 1 arm, 2 ftrs in Kar.
(in both you take out the Ger trn in the baltic)
So Germany is looking at
13 inf, 6 arm + planes vs. 16 inf, 3 arm, 2 ftrs
or
13 inf, 3 arm + planes vs. 16 inf, 1 arm 2 ftrs
In both cases you need 4 planes to survive the AA fire to even have a remote chance of taking.
And 4 in the first scenerio gets you about 6 survivors but you probably needed to bring in possibly 5 planes, which means UK may still have its Canada trn.
Even if they can’t, UK can counter with minimum 2 inf, 3 ftrs, 1 bom, 1 bb-shot. Â
You looking at UK clearing any time Ger only take with 5 units or less and possible take/clear with 6 units left.
This also doesn’t even count the options of withdrawing from Kar or trying to stack Cauc. Â In this case a 3 inf, 3 arm buy on R1 (LL) might prevent a German move to Kar. Â It would certainly require the Japanese ftrs for extra defense. Â Just throwing out more options.
Anyway, I think it is a bad gamble to make, esp if you are getting a 21 bid. Â I’d perfer to go PAfr and give my self a shot at not only Russia, but letting Japan build up, or even a shot at M84.