For a real version of teh German effect of Russia not taking Ukraine on R1, check out the Tournament Consolation game. Russia ONLY took West Russia on R1.
On G2, they lost their West Russia stack, and Germany has 5 ARM parked in Karelia, plus INF, plus all of their AF is still alive. And Russia has 1 ARM in India.
But otherwise, Russia has only 14 INF on the board, plus 3 ARM and 4 FIGs. And those are spread from Archangel to Caucuses, through Russia into Novo then to Sinkiang and to India.
Compare that to Germany’s 26 INF, 2 ART, 10 ARM, 6 FIG, 1 BOM.
Or even Japan (which has only built IC and TRN in J1 thus far)
16 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM, 5 FIG, 1 BOM.
After J2, add $36 IPC of units to Japan’s total.
Russia has only SIX land units that can strike German territory in R3. Compare that to Germany having ELEVEN, as well as supeior air forces.