There is a ‘magic number’ for hitting Karelia on the first turn: 18. Add up the number of Infantry and Armour in Karelia at the end of R1 (assuming that the two fighters are there of course), and if they total 18 or less you should be able to take Karelia and have a few tanks left (two on average). You must use everything (planes too) and it is VERY important that you buy all infantry if you are going to go for it.
However, THIS IS STILL A HORRIBLE IDEA! It is a huge gambit that will only work against inexperienced players. You are speeding up the arrival of allied soldiers in Europe by a turn-and-a-half. Even if you got lucky and killed 2 transports with your German subs, the Allies can have 14 infantry in Norway at the end of turn 2!
The real magic number is 16 - that will allows for one of two things:
1.) pulling the Bomber from Karelia and hitting the North fleet with 2 subs, 1 tran, and the bomber.
2.) hitting Karelia full force will leave you enough tanks to keep it on UK1.
This strategy still won’t work against good Allied players, but good Allied players won’t give you a magic number of 16 anyway so that makes it a decent gambit.
The real point of all this is a new Advanced Strategy for Allied Players I have been developing:
You don’t have to put as much defense into Karelia on the first turn as conventional wisdom states, because it’s actually a good thing to bait the German player into hitting Karelia on G1. Tanks in Novo on R1 are an empty threat (hitting Manchuria full force on R2 is suicide) and it takes pressure off of EE. Next time you are Russia, move 4-5 Inf into Novo on R1 instead and see if Germany bites! The extra infantry will stall Japan a turn (on J2 or sometimes J3).
The reason I say this is an advanced strategy is because you will have little room for error against Germany on Turn 2 if they take the gambit, and if they don’t then Russia can’t afford to take Norway or Karelia will fall on G2, and you have to be sure to push max Infantry towards Karelia as quickly as possible of the missing infantry will hurt you on G3.
I have tried this five games now - on 2 of them, Germany hit on G1 and the game ended early. Germany should not take the gambit, because their real advantage is the missing Russian infantry on G3. Once I lost Karelia on G3, which is why I say you HAVE to get some Inf there on UK2.
Give it a try and let me know what you think!
[ This Message was edited by: Ansbach on 2002-05-13 15:08 ]