I’ve been lurking around on this board for at least two months and finally decided to register and post. The reason for my post is that a great many of you use averages to give you the best idea of how a certain battle will turn out. For example, in theory, two tanks will always hit due to each having a “punch” of 3 attack a piece. On average, two tanks should hit every time due to law of averages. The problem is that some players do not think on these averages.
My roommate and I played a game where I built three TRN as G1 in the Baltic. This buy is deceptive in its ability to defend against the British airforce.
4 TRN defend on 1
1 Destroyer defends on a 3
2 subs that cannot defend against air
Total punch = 7 or one hit on average
2 FIGs attack on a 3
1 bomber attack on a 4
total punches = 10 or almost better than averages chance for 2 hits
First round casualties:
punch for Germany does not change still = 7
UK’s punch equals 7 also
Germany = 1TRN
UK = FIG
Germany punch = 6
UK’s punch = 4
Germany: Maybe another TRN due to better than average chances
UK = 1 Bomber
Germany still has 2 TRN and a Destroyer. This attack cost UK 35 IPC and Germany 32 IPC. I will let you decide whether this was a good attack or not.
Above is merely an example of how many decide when to attack. We know that a CV buy in the Baltic on G1 will deter almost any attack for many turns. The reason is due to the greater theorized punch expected. Unfortunately, dice are evil and make matters worse at the least opportune time. In the above battle, my roommate won that battle and still had a bomber. Averages predict that this result would never happen. In fact, averages predict much worse results for the UK airforce attack.
No Dice Rules!
I have been thinking about a method to take dice completely out of Axis and Allies and think I have come to a fair conclusion. The obvious result is to make punches = 6 = 1 hit. Many of us already do this and this method would simply put form to the theory. Unfortunately, that aspect of the idea is the easiest.
I had thought of using a remainder system for leftover punches, but the math would become annoying. Therefore, it becomes a matter of rounding up 4s and 5s to hits. In this way, the UK airforce of two FIGs and a Bomber will always create 2 hits. Although, 3 FIGs will only do one hit. The reason is that most of us depend on our better than average numbers to hit. We are annoyed when they do not hit.
Remember, these rules depend on no dice in any aspect of the game. I realized that this will make some technologies like Jet Fighters and Combined Bombardment slightly less useful, but people have no business relying on less than 60% odds.
Now, I know you are asking, “how do you play out a battle of 2 infantry against 1 defending infantry?” Well, think about the law of averages and decide what should happen. If you said that the attacker wins and loses 1 infantry then you are right. Both sides have the same punch ability, but the defender has less ability to take damage. The formula is easy. Every round, the player must record the punch ability of both sides. As soon, as the number the punches from each round add to 4 then that side records a hit. This means that it requires 2 battle rounds for one defending infantry to record a hit.
There are special rules:
FIGs and bombers can be shot at by an AA gun 5 times without being shot down. The 6th time the plane is shot down. This idea works well for SBR and small attacks. You will need to record plane attacks. In addition, if a territory with an AA gun is attacked by 4 or more planes, then one plane will always be shot down before combat starts. For SBR damage, the amount is equal to 4 or the IPC rating of the country with the IC, whichever is lower.
A sub needs to be counted differently, but it is easy enough. Obviously, 2 subs would create a hit against one destroyer. One sub will cause for problems due to its ability to attack before combat. Therefore, subs will allow either side to create one casualty in opening moves only when sub punches have added up to 4, 10, 16, 22 and so forth. This means that two subs are a pretty effective team for any attacking force. They create casualties on round 1, 3, 4, 6, 7. One quick example of how this works: attacking team has one fighter and one sub against 2 TRN. First round, sub and FIG add to 5 to equal one hit. There is no opening move casualty. TRNs miss because they need to add to 4. Second round, the punches are the same for the attacking team, but they can take the casualty in the opening move before both side fire. The TRN is sunk without firing back. This is because sub punches have added up to 4 by round 2. (Why are subs always so annoying?)
20 IPCs will get you a technology. That is all.
These rules should make for a dice free game that should not change the game dramatically. I did my best to make the rules as simple as possible. I will try to add clarifications if any nagging errors are obvious.