3 Turns, remember you arn’t attacking the American fleet unless it’s next to you.
42+40+38 = 120. 2 Carriers, 1 Fighter, 2 Destroyers, 8 Transports on top of 3 transports, 1 battleship, 2 destroyers and 3 fighters you start with and keep past J1.
You going to attack that with 2 battleships, 2 carriers, 6 fighters, 1 bomber and 4-8 transports???
You post a 3 turn build up of USA, and compare it to what Japan has after J1
To get your fleet, you are NOT countering Pearl, or you lose a chunk of those units. Japan may very well add a DST to that fleet with ANY luck at Pearl (2 hits by US on average, wounding the BB, losing the SUB).
Also, at the end of your great build up, you are still 2 moves away. that is FIVE TURNS that Japan can IGNORE the US. In 5 turns, Japan has added 48 divisions or more to Asia.
If US attacks the Japan fleet, EVEN IF JAPAN DOESN’T SPEND A PENNEY ON NAVAL IN 5 TURNS, the US will win, with a 10% chance of having ANY transports alive. Add 2 more turns of US builds and moves to get TRN’s to risk Japan.
Meanwhile in Europe…
UK has lost their fleet to a joint Kreigsmarine/Luftwaffe strike. Germany loses their ships, and a number of FIGs, but they are immune to the UK for several turns. Nazis turn $50 IPC war machine against Russia with no risk from the west.
And about the time German INF is in Caucuses, West Russia, and Archangel Japan forces are in Novo, Evenk, and Kazakh. Russia has an income of $8, UK an income of $15.
London and Russia fall together, just before the US is finally ready to take out the big bad Japan fleet in US5.
And again, that is without the Japs spending a penney on fleet except for 4 TRNs to empty Japan each round.
If Japan spends JUST $16 on Navy, and adds their last 2 land based FIGs, then the great US attack has a whopping 30% chance of success.
And I know you are going to post that US goes after Japan Islands. Fine, they go after the islands. But as US is taking Borneo, Japan no longer has to send anythign to Asia, Moscow has fallen. And Germany no longer has to send anythign to UK OR Moscow. Now the US has Borneo… but they better be buildign INF, because the Nazis are sailing from London for Washington, and Japan just dropped 8 divisions in Alaska…