How do you respond as UK to this german first turn?



  • Sorry Squire.  i was less than clear.

    My original post was the entire US SZ10 fleet to SZ8 to offload to London.  That allows a DST, 2 TRN for fodder, 1-3 FIGs, and a BOM to counter-attack the German fleet(s) in USA2.

    Sending the DST (or both the DST and the TRNs) to SZ12 is another option.

    And I am sure that the 3 moves I psoted above are not the only blocks/counters  They are just 3 I thought of offhand.  And then there are variations on those 3 (A DST instead of the TRN and INF to block SUBS from sailing through would be a prime example).

    Correct me if I am wrong, but the purpose of buying TRNs in the Baltic is to both threaten Sea Lion, and to help increase the odds of a Kreigsmarine link-up.  To achieve that purpose, Germany has to buy the TRN’s, get the Baltic fleet relatively intact to SZ7, get the Med fleet to SZ7 relatively intact, and have sufficient AF available to support an attempted landing in London.

    With a strong UK naval buy, the AF is needed for the naval battle, and the TRNs are likely to be fodder.  That removes the Sea Lion Threat, both in the initial move, and in the linked fleet that is missing TRNs and is not adjacent to an IC so that more can be dropped and protected.  Also, in trying to link the fleets to preserve them, you have to fight through a very tough little UK fleet in SZ6, with expected heavy losses.  And any ships that engage in combat in SZ6 won;t reach SZ7 until G3… and you probably won;t kill that SZ6 fleet with just AF (97% failure probability of 5 FIG, 1 BOM against 1 AC, 2 FIG, 1 SUB, 2 TRN, 1 DST, 1 BB).  That means that, after G2, you have not made the link-up, and now UK gets to counter (maybe with just a BOM, but only 1 of those fleets has a BB, so they will take out a unit on average), and the US (with up to 3 FIGs, 1 BOM, 1 DST, 2 TRN).

    So Germany spends 60% of their initial buy on Navy, and come G3, they MAY have 2 units left in the Atlantic, if the dice were favorable; more likely the Atlantic is devoid of ships, Allied and German.

    But then on UK 3, UK builds fleet, more US fleet sails in and more is built.  Allies are landing anywhere they want in Europe or Africa on T4.  And Russia has probably done rather well in the East with the Luftwaffe beign tied up on sea duty.

    If all you want is to secure Germany from landings before T4, there are cheaper ways to do it.  IMHO.



  • @JamesG:

     If you combined your third version with the US DD and TRNs moving to SZ12 in US1, THAT would prevent a merge. Â

    BUT that would be a real bad idea if Germany bought Baltic transports on G1.  With UK buying an AC and TRN on UK1 and the US sending only air to the UK on US1, that invites a UK capital grab by Germany on G2.



  • Staging in SZ7 was posted only as an option for blocking the merge, not for stopping Sea Lion.

    With a high TRN buy, I personally would stage heavy in SZ6, force Germany to use their AF on the naval battle, preventing a G2 landing in London due to lack of air support, and take out the Med Fleet that is somewhere in the Atlantic with the US naval and air units on US2.

    But that is just me, you mileage may vary 😄



  • @JamesG:

    @JamesG:

     If you combined your third version with the US DD and TRNs moving to SZ12 in US1, THAT would prevent a merge. Â

    BUT that would be a real bad idea if Germany bought Baltic transports on G1.  With UK buying an AC and TRN on UK1 and the US sending only air to the UK on US1, that invites a UK capital grab by Germany on G2.

    (Thx for the backup JamesG.)

    Yes, it does. And it would.

    The USA transports MUST go to SZ8 to offload. That leaves 1 DD to block, which leaves BB,AC 2 fighters DD, maybe sub/trans vs counter of USA of DD 2 trans and fighter/Bomber. NOT good odds for USA.

    Again, your build will NOT prevent a block attempt, or if in SZ12, it risks an attack on UK.

    Squirecam



  • @ncscswitch:

    Staging in SZ7 was posted only as an option for blocking the merge, not for stopping Sea Lion.

    With a high TRN buy, I personally would stage heavy in SZ6, force Germany to use their AF on the naval battle, preventing a G2 landing in London due to lack of air support, and take out the Med Fleet that is somewhere in the Atlantic with the US naval and air units on US2.

    But that is just me, you mileage may vary 😄

    The point was to prevent a merge. But the only valid merge-blocker posted so far leaves London at risk.

    But since you place in SZ6, Germany CAN fight and CAN merge. Which was my point. Your build will not prevent a merge. But thanks for playing. 🙂

    Squirecam



  • @ncscswitch:

    Staging in SZ7 was posted only as an option for blocking the merge, not for stopping Sea Lion.

    Except it utterly fails to BLOCK the merge.  The merged fleet may be toast to a US counter, but that is a different argument.  You’ve been saying it BLOCKS the merge.  It does not.  Now if you are saying it renders the merged fleet largely ineffectual, you MAY have a point on that one.



  • It does prevent a G2 merge… one fleet, or a nice chunk of it, is stuck in SZ6.  The farthest the Med Fleet can get in G2 is SZ7.

    You can’t take out SZ6 with only AF, you need some or all of the Baltic fleet to achieve that.
    (following assumes 1 FIG lost on R1 and not replaced G1, and a UK buy of AC and DST on UK1)

    AF only:  97% loss
    W/ 2 SUBs added:  75% loss
    W/ 2 SUBs and DST:  Finally over 50%… 55% chance to win… a coin toss.  And to get THAT close with only 3 ships, most of the Luftwaffe is future reef material.
    W/ the entire Baltic Fleet and Luftwaffe, it goes to 97% Axis win, with perhaps a FIG lost, and 1 DST remaining in SZ6.

    And with that being the case, what are you going to link on G3?

    You can get more ships to live… at the cost of AF.



  • @JamesG:

    @ncscswitch:

    Staging in SZ7 was posted only as an option for blocking the merge, not for stopping Sea Lion.

    Except it utterly fails to BLOCK the merge.  The merged fleet may be toast to a US counter, but that is a different argument.  You’ve been saying it BLOCKS the merge.  It does not.  Now if you are saying it renders the merged fleet largely ineffectual, you MAY have a point on that one.

    OK, let me be more specific then…
    it blocks the point of a merge.  Who cares if they linked, if they are immediately dead?



  • Yeah, the thing is you have to use your entire airforce to unlock SZ6. You don’t have the airforce necessary as well to dislodge the 2 tran 1 dd from SZ12 in order to proceed noncombat to SZ7 with navy. Switch proposed to offload stuff into UK with the US, but I’d just use the transports to block SZ12. Germany couldn’t merge any parts of the two navies this way except a couple subs which could sail through the block.



  • @trihero:

    Yeah, the thing is you have to use your entire airforce to unlock SZ6. You don’t have the airforce necessary as well to dislodge the 2 tran 1 dd from SZ12 in order to proceed noncombat to SZ7 with navy. Switch proposed to offload stuff into UK with the US, but I’d just use the transports to block SZ12. Germany couldn’t merge any parts of the two navies this way except a couple subs which could sail through the block.

    Which leaves open a potential attack on London, which was James G’s point too.

    1. SZ12 DD+2Trans vs Fighter/sub+trans fodder - 5vs5 - CAN be done
    2. SZ6 AC BB 2fighters 2 trans (17/7) vs DD,2- subs, trans fodder, airforce (4-5F, Bomber) (at least 23/9)

    Germany SHOULD win these and SHOULD get to merge. Hence it DOES NOT PREVENT A BLOCK.

    BTW, Switch, just admit it wont block and say GJ. Dont start changing your argument to well, “it would be pointless to merge”. One, its not pointless, and 2) The debate was can that build block. It cannot. And the merged fleet will survive a USA counter.

    Squirecam



  • First off, get the right defending UK fleet in SZ6.  You missed Russia’s sub, and eitehr a 3rd TRN, or a DST.  So add either 3 or 5 to the defense rolls, and 2 more units.

    Second, you FIG count is wrong.  If you are going to send a FIG against SZ12, then you only have 4 left, not 4-5 for SZ6 (assuming a traditional R1 open)

    Odds:
    SZ6:
    Allied Force 1 AC, 1 BB, 2 FIG, 2 TRN, 1 DST, 1 SUB
    Axis Force:  2 SUB, 1 DST, 4 FIGs, 1 BOM, 3 TRN
    77% Axis win.
    Most likely result:  Axis 2 FIG, 1 BOM  alive.

    SZ12:
    Allied Force:  1 DST, 2 TRN
    Axis Force:  1 BB, 1 TRN, 1 FIG (sub most likely lost killing the UK BB off Gibraltar on G1)
    88% Axis win
    Most likely result:  Axis 1 FIG, 1 BB survive.

    So…
    What is going to merge with what?



  • I made an error above.

    1 less TRN for UK (SZ1 can;t reach by G2)

    89% win for the Axis
    Most likely result, 3 FIGs, 1 BOM alive.

    Still no ships to merge with the BB from SZ12 though, unless you are trading FIGs for ships…



  • @ncscswitch:

    First off, get the right defending UK fleet in SZ6.  You missed Russia’s sub, and eitehr a 3rd TRN, or a DST.  So add either 3 or 5 to the defense rolls, and 2 more units.

    Second, you FIG count is wrong.  If you are going to send a FIG against SZ12, then you only have 4 left, not 4-5 for SZ6 (assuming a traditional R1 open)

    Odds:
    SZ6:
    Allied Force 1 AC, 1 BB, 2 FIG, 2 TRN, 1 DST, 1 SUB
    Axis Force:  2 SUB, 1 DST, 4 FIGs, 1 BOM, 3 TRN
    77% Axis win.
    Most likely result:  Axis 2 FIG, 1 BOM  alive.

    SZ12:
    Allied Force:  1 DST, 2 TRN
    Axis Force:  1 BB, 1 TRN, 1 FIG (sub most likely lost killing the UK BB off Gibraltar on G1)
    88% Axis win
    Most likely result:  Axis 1 FIG, 1 BB survive.

    So…
    What is going to merge with what?

    (sigh)

    I now see why Crazy wont play you. When you lose, you change the rules.

    1 - We discussed your AC/2TRANS/INF BUILD. It was THAT build I would merge against. If you build a DD and forget 2 inf, and you place USA in SZ12, then London is open to an attack. That placement is risking a G2 london attack, or a destrucion of the UK/USA fleets.

    2 - The german sub is NOT lost. Gibraltar will have the BB take the hit, not the sub. But you wont send the BB in G2. It waits to noncom. It is DD+2 vs sub+trans+fighter. 5v5, 3v3.

    You will merge an AC,BB and fighters with whatever trans are left behind. More than enough, since USA has 1 fighter and 1 bomber left. You have NO real USA counter to that fleet.

    Also, since G1 you dont need 5 transports, the OP 8 bid is better spent on AC+2+2 rather than AC+4. The 2 subs make an attack on the UK fleet even better odds.

    I’d have more respect for ya if you just said, “your right, that build wont block, but I’d risk it for a loss of G1 air”. But you keep insisting it will work when James and I both show you why it wont block.

    Squirecam



  • OK, so you do an AC and 2 TRN.  8 IPC to land units on G1.

    And we’ll go with a TRN instead of a DST, though I do believe I said that there were at least 3 blocks, and the AC/TRN/2 INF was one of them.

    And the only thing you are sending to SZ6 is 2 SUBs, 1 DST, 4 FIGs (1 dead in Ukraine, 1 being used in SZ12), 1 BOM.  The AC and TRNs will NCM to SZ7 after the battle. 
    Am I reading that right?
    SZ6:
    67% chance to win
    72% to be able to sail through the Baltic TRNs and AC to SZ7
    German AF lost 2 FIGs in the process.

    As for London being at risk if the US goes to SZ12, I ask again, using what AF and what land units?  Throwing everything at the SZ6 fleet leaves you with no AF for a London strike.  holding back AF risks loss of the battle completely.  And that is with taking TRNs as fodder.

    And UK has 4 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM, 1 FIG, 1 BOM, 1 AA… starting units, plus 2 INF from UK1 build, and the EUS FIG and BOM.  You need a pretty good force to crack that… a force you are not going to have after fighting through SZ6.  At least on G2.  If you wait until G3 to invade using your unified fleet, you won;t take London.  Not with UK getting to spend another $28+ IPC’s first…

    And let me make sure I am completely understanding you here…
    You spend only $8 on land forces as Germany on G1, the rest on Baltic Fleet.
    The Luftwaffe is completely tied up on G1 and G2 attacking navy and Egypt, and is positioned in Western to maintain the Sea Lion threat.
    You manage to merge a BB, AC, 3 TRN in SZ7, and you land 2 of your 3 surviving FIGs on it.

    Do I have that correct?

    Now what has Russia been doing during this endeavor?
    And how much fleet and AF is the US about to hit the German fleet with?

    My whole issue with this fleet link is that it takes a LOT of force to attempt, pretty much every bit of force you can get to the effort.  Anything less, and you fail.
    Using that much force, leaves Germany vulnerable on the back side.
    And once linked, the fleet and remaining AF is not strong enough to take London, and can’t get past the new US ships heading into the Atlantic.
    All you can do is retreat back to the Med, if the US does not catch you with their US1 build first…

    Wouldn’t it be cheaper to just build the AC and TRNs in the Med in the first place?



  • Personally, if down a fighter (due to a UKR attack and 3 tanks are exposed there) I would just atack them and not bother with a fleet.

    But assume I dont and build a fleet anyway. The 8 wont do much on land, so you build all fleet.

    And no, London is safe. What you have is a merged fleet to fight off UK/USA (UK has no fleet and no fighters and no India IC (imporant in my Gencon games). Now you concentrate on Japan v. Russia while Germany buys time vs allies with an eventual fleet v fleet atack (or some try a med strategy)

    But I would like AC+BB+fighters+trans in SZ7.

    Building AC+trans in med leaves 36 IPC in baltic fleet to die. Least they get useful this way.

    Squirecam



  • Thank you Squire.

    NOW at least the move makes a little sense, especially with the note about GenCon scoring.

    Personally, I still think it is sub optimal for several reasons…
    Using fleet to attack rather than defend (as it can if it just stays in the Baltic)
    Spending a lot of AF on an offense where it is lost, rather than keeping it well shielded with INF and preserving it for repeated offense and defense use
    Being unable to make additional landings in Africa for several turns.
    Allowing Russia to break loose in central Europe, quite possibly securing Ukraine and Belo so that Eastern and Balkans are being traded instead of Ukraine/Belo

    The GenCon scoring/time limited thing has a major impact on strategy.  Kreigsmarine going head to head with the Royal Navy and US Navy is a losing proposition, pretty quickly.  That initial surge plus 1 turn is the best you can probably hope for most of the time.  And in a game where you play to more traditional ending points (X VC’s, domination, surrender) it is probably not that practical of a move (unless your opponent may not realize what they are seeing).


  • 2018 2017 '16 '11 Moderator

    How would this change if Germany’s down two fighters??


  • 2007 AAR League

    Well my response to this mess was to put my UK fleet in SZ6 (BB, trn) and build a AC, put 2 Figs on it and a Destroyer.
    Russia moves the Sub there to.

    US sacrfices its fleet with 2 trn to SZ8 of load the units in UK, put Fig and Bmb there.

    us blocks spain sz with a des (you could use uk trn in canada for this but then your 1 arm less in Uk)

    The reason to do this is not to prevent a consilidation but to prevent a landing from the southern navy (in our game we use tripleA ladder rules(axis bid 9) and Jlord bought a trn in med)

    And Russia moves into Europe with everything she got.  (take karelia, ukraine belorussia) (germany has only 1 art and 4 inf in eastern, and 5 inf,5arm in western).

    So a landing attempt on UK will be really expensive, but i think he will turn around and attack Karelia instead.)  (and will then suffer a landing in western or karelia)



  • Thank you Nix for posting the effects on the “backside” of that move. 🙂



  • @Jennifer:

    How would this change if Germany’s down two fighters??

    IMHO, one fighter is bad enough. I do not think a fleet strategy would work down 2 fighters, even in a Gencon time limited game.

    Squirecam



  • @ncscswitch:

    This is a variant of a Caspian Sub strat that was previously discussed on the forum.

    The short version to block it (I may miss 1 or 2 details)

    1.  UK builds and AC, TRN and 2 INF.  Moves fleet to SZ6, palces new naval units in SZ6, lands existing FIGs on SZ6 AC.
            (Total UK fleet:  1 BB, 1 AC, 2 FIG, 2 TRN)
    2.  USA sends 1 FIG, 1 BOM, 2 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM from EUS to UK (via TRN offloading from SZ8)
    3.  Russia sends their sub to join the UK fleet in SZ6 (or to SZ7, depending on where the Med Fleet is, but most likely to SZ6)

    Net Effect:
    UK now has some good land defense (6 INF, 2 ART, 2 ARM, 1 FIG, 2 BOM, 1 AA)
    Baltic fleet has to fight its way to UK, and cannot link with the Med Fleet since the Med Fleet cannot reach SZ6
    Many German TRN’s are going to be sunk as fodder in the naval battle, preventing an immediate landing in London… at least not with enough force to crack UK’s defenders.
    Med Fleet, if it moved into the Atlantic, is now in range of US ships to be sunk in US2.  1 DST, 2 TRN, 1 FIG, 1 BOM against 1 BB, 1 TRN, 1 SUB.

    By the end of Turn 3, with further naval/air builds by UK, and with second wave of US forces (2 more TRN, another DST, plust whatever AF and land units can be sent), the German fleets are pretty well gone, if not totally destroyed.

    Meanwhile, with Germany diverting that much of their income West, Russia should be in Karelia, Belo and Ukraine, reducing Germany’s income by 7 IPC.  Germany is also kicke dout of Egypt, and should ahve lost Libya, and be about to lose Algeria (if not already lost).

    So the gamble is…
    Can Germany fight past a joint UK/USA defense of London in G2?Â

    If they fail, they are already down 25% of their income, plus the lost units that were built as Navy in G1 and are now sunk (plus their bid). 
    Russia has solidified their posiitons in German territories.
    US and UK both have land units staged forward to UK that only need TRN’s to start large scale landings anywhere from Western to Norway (includign Germany and Eastern sicne the baltic Fleet was sunk in the North Sea).

    Again, I may have missed some specific details, but if the UK player is awake on UK1 and sees the threat (kind of hard to miss) and unless the US player is incompetant, Geermany will blow their navy, amd a nice chunk of their AF, for a gain of only killing some Allied Fleet, after which, the Allies will hve uncontested control of teh seas and skies in and around Europe.

    i think that these UK block in the first round can only secure its masacr nothing more; beacuse Germany attack with 4fig, 1bom, 3subs, 1des, 1AC and 4 tra


  • 2018 2017 '16 '11 Moderator

    I think you shouldn’t block at all.  I think you should try and crush them before they can merge.  On the defense you’re toast.  Too many german units can make it to the fight.  You’re only hope is to kill them before they can unify and rebuild afterwords.



  • @Jennifer:

    I think you shouldn’t block at all.  I think you should try and crush them before they can merge.  On the defense you’re toast.  Too many german units can make it to the fight.  You’re only hope is to kill them before they can unify and rebuild afterwords.

    You can’t.

    UK’s units are out of position for a preemptive strike, except for 3 planes.

    That is why the block.  You either attempt the block, or they unify AND amphib London with full air support.



  • so you want to say that if they unify it would turn the tide for the axis



  • If you let an undamaged German fleet unify in SZ7 on G2, yes it would be a very bad situation for the Allies.  That is a lot of defensive firepower, and a pretty serious offensive force as well.  Washington would be at risk from that massed fleet.

    So you do not let them merge undamged.  You beat the snot out of them, even at teh cost of the UK and initial US fleets, and leave that fleet small enough to be countered by a single turn of joint US/UK cooperation.


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