How do you respond as UK to this german first turn?


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    @cdassak:

    So if Russia takes Norway even the bmr can’t attack.
    The battle is 3inf 2ftr 1arm vs 3inf 1ftr so the Russian can drop the Moscow ftr before killing the tank. It will die in Karelia on G1 anyway.
    Even if Norway doesn’t change hands (but you do kill the German ftr) the UK bb will probably survive.

    Now the dilemma is attack Norway, sacrifising 1ftr and 1arm, and abandon any ‘usual’ Russian opening to save the UK fleet or do nothing and let it die…

    3 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fighter vs 3 Infantry, 1 Fighter:

    Overall %*: A. survives: 60% D. survives: 34% No survivors:7%

    • percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
      Attacker results:
      Probability % # units
        1% 5: 3 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
        7% 4: 2 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
        16% 3: 1 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
        19% 2: 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
        17% 1: 1 Fig.
        40% 0: no units.
      Defender results:
      Probability % # units
        1% 4: 3 Inf, 1 Fig.
        6% 3: 2 Inf, 1 Fig.
        12% 2: 1 Inf, 1 Fig.
        15% 1: 1 Fig.
        66% 0: no units.

    But let’s say Germany got extremely good die rolls and Russia had to retreat the plane.  It used 1 movement to get from Karelia to Finland/Norway so has 3 left.  1 to Karelia, 1 to West Russia, 1 to Caucasus or Russia.

    So how, exactly, is Russia going to loose a fighter in this engagement?  They loose the same 3 infantry they would loose anyway in any engagement with Germany, either offensively or defensively, the same Armor they probably would loose on a German counter attack and kill off a German fighter, deny a German assault on the British navy (and if you bid a second sub, odds are you’re going to try and do more naval damage on G1 then normal) and set up a method of destroying even more german units with England’s landings in Finland.



  • He is taking both moscow and karrelia fighters 😄



  • Jen,

    I use both ftrs to be as certain as possible. If you are gonna do the Norway attack you must use maximum force. It would be a pitty to go to all this trouble with Russia and not kill the ftr = loose the UK fleet in sz2


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    @cdassak:

    Jen,

    I use both ftrs to be as certain as possible. If you are gonna do the Norway attack you must use maximum force. It would be a pitty to go to all this trouble with Russia and not kill the ftr = loose the UK fleet in sz2

    I’m already at 66% chance of complete destruction of Norway.  I don’t need the land, why bring the extra fighter?  It’s an unncessary risk and you will most certainly loose it when Germany takes Karelia (which they’re going to do no matter what anyway.)



  • 66% to clear Norway, but only 52% to take it.

    That means Russia is losing an ARM in that fight, and gaining nothing in return but killing a FIG.
    Add in a 40% of Germany killing EVERYTHING, including the Russian FIG, and a Norway strike is definitely sub-optimal (unless you are doing it purely to preserve UK fleet due to a bid placement of an extra German SUB in SZ8).

    Without the need for SZ2 fleet protection, this move is really a bad idea for Russia due to the guaranteed loses, and the high risk of total loss.


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    All in:

    3 Infantry, 1 Fighter from Karelia
    1 Armor from Archangelsk

    vs

    3 Infantry, 1 Fighter on Finland/Norway

    Results:

    Overall %*: A. survives: 58% D. survives: 33% No survivors:7%

    • percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
      Attacker results:
      Probability % # units
        1% 5: 3 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
        6% 4: 2 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
        15% 3: 1 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
        20% 2: 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
        16% 1: 1 Fig.
        42% 0: no units.
      Defender results:
      Probability % # units
        1% 4: 3 Inf, 1 Fig.
        6% 3: 2 Inf, 1 Fig.
        12% 2: 1 Inf, 1 Fig.
        14% 1: 1 Fig.
        67% 0: no units.

    If you want best chance to retain your fighter, results are:

    Overall %*: A. survives: 88% D. survives: 43% No survivors:1%

    • percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
      Attacker results:
      Probability % # units
        1% 5: 3 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
        7% 4: 2 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
        16% 3: 1 Inf, 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
        20% 2: 1 Arm, 1 Fig.
        44% 1: 1 Fig.
        12% 0: no units.
      Defender results:
      Probability % # units
        2% 4: 3 Inf, 1 Fig.
        8% 3: 2 Inf, 1 Fig.
        16% 2: 1 Inf, 1 Fig.
        17% 1: 1 Fig.
        57% 0: no units.

    (The above from FROOD)

    So in an all in you have a 58% chance of retaining your fighter, 42% chance of taking the land.  If you want to keep your fighter at all costs, you have a 44% chance of doing so while still a 57% chance of killing all German units in Finland/Norway.

    And yes, I’d say only do this if you think an attack on the British BB in SZ2 is immenant.  Or if you wanna go Crazy Ivan with Russia and take out the UKR and FIN fighters and don’t care if you have the land, you just want to amke it easier to dismantle the Luftwaffe.



  • @ncscswitch:

    66% to clear Norway, but only 52% to take it.

    But remember if you only clear Norway, Germany can still bring the bomber to attack the UK fleet.  1 BMBer, 2 Subs vs. Sub, BB, TRN will kill the BB about 40% of the time.  Not great odds, but doable for some players.


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    Granted.  But at least it isn’t BMB, FIG, 2 SS vs SS, Trn, BB. 🙂


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