L21 playoff OOB jkeller(X) vs trulpen (L+43)

Assume no scramble.

L21 SF jkeller vs trulpen (+43) OOB scramble.tsvg

L21 SF jkeller vs trulpen (+43) OOB.tsvg

Game History

Round: 8

   Purchase Units - Americans

       Americans buy 1 carrier, 2 destroyers, 2 fighters, 2 infantry, 2 submarines and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 



   Combat Move - Americans

       1 bomber moved from Trans-Jordan to Ukraine

       1 submarine moved from 33 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone

             Americans take 35 Sea Zone from Japanese

       2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 33 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone

       1 infantry moved from 35 Sea Zone to Philippines

       8 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 33 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone



   Combat - Americans

       Strategic bombing raid in Ukraine

               Germans roll AA dice in Ukraine : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits

           Bombing raid in Ukraine rolls: 3 and causes: 3 damage to unit: factory_minor

           Bombing raid in Ukraine causes 3 damage total. 

       Battle in Philippines

       Battle in 36 Sea Zone

           Americans attack with 8 fighters, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber

           Japanese defend with 1 destroyer

               Americans roll dice for 1 submarine in 36 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits

               Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer in 36 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits

               1 destroyer owned by the Japanese lost in 36 Sea Zone

           Americans win, taking Philippines from Japanese, taking 36 Sea Zone from Neutral with 8 fighters, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8

           Casualties for Japanese: 1 destroyer



   Non Combat Move - Americans

       8 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 36 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone

       1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Queensland to 54 Sea Zone

       1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 54 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone

       1 destroyer and 1 submarine moved from 54 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone

       1 carrier and 1 submarine moved from 10 Sea Zone to 30 Sea Zone

       1 destroyer moved from 10 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone

       1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 91 Sea Zone to United Kingdom

       1 submarine moved from 92 Sea Zone to 97 Sea Zone

       1 submarine moved from 91 Sea Zone to 93 Sea Zone

       1 carrier moved from 91 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone

       1 carrier moved from 101 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone

       1 fighter moved from Western United States to 91 Sea Zone

       1 aaGun, 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Central United States to 101 Sea Zone

       1 aaGun, 2 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 2 transports moved from 101 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone

       1 aaGun and 2 infantry moved from 91 Sea Zone to Morocco

       1 mech_infantry moved from 91 Sea Zone to Morocco

       1 bomber moved from Ukraine to Russia

       1 submarine moved from 33 Sea Zone to 44 Sea Zone

       1 submarine moved from 33 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone

       2 fighters moved from Amur to 35 Sea Zone

       1 battleship, 7 carriers, 2 cruisers, 7 destroyers, 2 fighters and 4 submarines moved from 33 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone

       1 infantry moved from Amur to Buryatia

       1 submarine moved from 33 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone



   Place Units - Americans

       1 fighter placed in Eastern United States

       1 fighter placed in Western United States

       2 infantry placed in Central United States

       1 transport placed in 101 Sea Zone

       1 destroyer placed in 101 Sea Zone

       1 carrier, 1 destroyer and 2 submarines placed in 10 Sea Zone

       Turning on Edit Mode

       EDIT: Removing units owned by Americans from 91 Sea Zone: 1 submarine

       EDIT: Adding units owned by Americans to 93 Sea Zone: 1 submarine

       EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

       Americans undo move 6.

       1 carrier, 1 destroyer and 1 submarine placed in 10 Sea Zone

       1 submarine placed in 101 Sea Zone



   Turn Complete - Americans

       Americans collect 58 PUs; end with 58 PUs

       Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 68 PUs

       Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 73 PUs

       Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 78 PUs

       Objective Americans 4 Philippines: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 83 PUs



   Purchase Units - Chinese

       Trigger Chinese Loses Burma Road: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Closed

       Chinese buy nothing; Remaining resources: 5 PUs; 



   Combat Move - Chinese



   Turn Complete - Chinese

       Chinese collect 0 PUs; end with 5 PUs



   Purchase Units - British

       British buy 3 fighters and 1 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 



   Purchase Units - UK_Pacific

       UK_Pacific buy 2 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 



   Combat Move - British

       Turning on Edit Mode

       EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

       1 bomber moved from Trans-Jordan to 97 Sea Zone

       1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 92 Sea Zone to 97 Sea Zone

       2 fighters moved from Gibraltar to 97 Sea Zone

       2 submarines moved from 93 Sea Zone to 97 Sea Zone

       1 destroyer moved from 92 Sea Zone to 97 Sea Zone

       EDIT: 1 destroyer moved from 91 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone

       3 artilleries moved from Algeria to 92 Sea Zone

       2 artilleries and 2 transports moved from 92 Sea Zone to 94 Sea Zone

       2 infantry moved from Tunisia to 94 Sea Zone

       1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 94 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone

       1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 94 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone

       2 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from 96 Sea Zone to Malta

       1 battleship moved from 92 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone

       1 artillery and 1 transport moved from 92 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone

       1 infantry moved from Tobruk to 96 Sea Zone

       1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 96 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone

       1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 99 Sea Zone to Cyprus



   Combat - British

       Battle in 97 Sea Zone

           British attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters, 2 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber; Americans loiter and taunt

           Germans defend with 1 submarine; Italians defend with 1 destroyer and 2 submarines

               British roll dice for 2 submarines in 97 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits

               British roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber in 97 Sea Zone, round 2 : 5/6 hits, 3,17 expected hits

               Italians roll dice for 3 submarines in 97 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 0,50 expected hits

               Italians roll dice for 1 destroyer in 97 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits

               1 destroyer owned by the Italians, 1 submarine owned by the Germans and 2 submarines owned by the Italians lost in 97 Sea Zone

           British win, taking 97 Sea Zone from Germans with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters, 2 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 26

           Casualties for Italians: 1 destroyer and 2 submarines

           Casualties for Germans: 1 submarine

       Battle in Cyprus

           British attack with 1 artillery and 1 infantry

           Italians defend with 1 infantry

               British roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Cyprus, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits

               Italians roll dice for 1 infantry in Cyprus, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits

               British roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Cyprus, round 3 : 1/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits

               Italians roll dice for 1 infantry in Cyprus, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits

               1 infantry owned by the Italians and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Cyprus

           British win, taking Cyprus from Italians with 1 artillery remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0

           Casualties for British: 1 infantry

           Casualties for Italians: 1 infantry

       Battle in Malta

           British attack with 2 artilleries and 2 infantry

           Italians defend with 1 infantry

               British roll dice for 1 battleship in Malta, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,67 expected hits

               Italians roll dice for 1 infantry in Malta, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits

               1 infantry owned by the Italians lost in Malta

           British win, taking Malta from Italians with 2 artilleries and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3

           Casualties for Italians: 1 infantry



   Non Combat Move - British

       Turning on Edit Mode

       EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

       3 aaGuns, 2 artilleries, 14 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Burma to India

       2 fighters moved from Persia to Russia

       1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Iraq to Northwest Persia

       2 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from Persia to Northwest Persia

       3 infantry moved from Trans-Jordan to Iraq

       3 infantry moved from Egypt to Trans-Jordan

       1 aaGun moved from Tobruk to Alexandria

       3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 97 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone

       1 bomber moved from 97 Sea Zone to Trans-Jordan

       1 carrier moved from 92 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone

       EDIT: 1 aaGun moved from Morocco to Gibraltar

       EDIT: 1 infantry moved from Morocco to Gibraltar

       EDIT: 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Morocco to Gibraltar

       1 submarine moved from 71 Sea Zone to 81 Sea Zone

       1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from India to Northwest Persia



   Place Units - British

       3 fighters placed in Persia

       1 infantry placed in Egypt



   Turn Complete - British

       British collect 33 PUs; end with 33 PUs

       Objective British 1 Original: British met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 38 PUs



   Place Units - UK_Pacific

       2 infantry placed in India



   Turn Complete - UK_Pacific

       UK_Pacific collect 6 PUs; end with 7 PUs

       Some Units in India change ownership: 2 infantry

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : 0,67

Italians regular : -0,83

Japanese regular : -0,33

Germans AA : -0,17

British regular : 1,17

Which figs to scramble?

The rerolled battle.

L21 SF jkeller vs trulpen (+43) OOB battle.tsvg

Adjusted. 2 UK-figs on the US-ac.

UCU8 L21 SF jkeller vs trulpen (+43) OOB.tsvg

Wasn’t good for Mussolini. With the bad result on the first go I can understand you wanted another shot. Could’ve worked, but this was of course worse. I’ll try to not assume so much regarding scrambles, but rather await your decisions.

The difference in TUV between the two results was just 8 though.

Oh, wait, perhaps not.

Yes, seems correct.

First was +26.

Second +34.

Expected TUV was +10.

@jkeller said in L21 playoff OOB jkeller(X) vs trulpen (L+43):

wasnt based on dice at all but average expected outcome. of course average does not mean it will be better than even a bad initial roll lol. oh well i would still make same decision again especially with even a small possibility of killing uk fighters and german counter on british fleet

Yep, that actually makes a lot of sense.