@moonzar said in Japan R1 attack on pearl harbor:
probably 3-4 subs to prepare for KJF.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8Kyi0WNg40
Error 1: If players overestimate the utility of J1 subs - well okay, it’s a matter of missed details and suboptimal application.
Error 2: If players are overreacting pre-emptively on J1 to what might not turn out to be KJF after all (you only really know after a US1 Pacific fleet drop), a 24 IPC commitment to tactically inflexible naval units with very narrow applications, oof. That’s bad.
Understand the difference between that and G1 11 infantry 2 artillery build. Without Germany immediately trying some variation of attack USSR-controlled West Russia setting the stage for a tank dash, the expectation is Germany needs mass numbers to hold Karelia, choke off USSR income at Ukraine, deal with UK relief forces after UK abandons India, etc. There’s some numbers involved and I could get into G1 mixing in 1-2 tanks depending on income denial, opportunity costs, planned counters, but I won’t. Suffice to say Germany makes good on those units one way or another.
But Japanese submarines? Suppose US doesn’t drop a Pacific fleet. What does Japan do with Japanese submarines? If Japan goes through the Suez into the Mediterranean, all right, maybe Japan relieves pressure. But Japan must control the Suez for that to happen, which only happens after India falls - unless Japan slows its attack on India to hit Africa, which often isn’t best. Even if US does drop a Pacific fleet, I explained how often Japanese submarines are used later rather than earlier and (broadly) naval positioning timing and opportunity costs.
You could argue that Japan can “recover” the situation, which if it were only a question of navy, might be the case. But it’s not, which leads to -
Error 3: You may get transposition of more or less viable lines in other cases, but in this case Japan is talking about committing to navy when the ground game is in question. Using a non-viable line in place of a viable line is not merely bad, it’s fatal. After looking at some of what I write later, maybe you’ll see what I mean.
Error 4: The whole “hard defense” mentality regarding Japan is awful. Battle of Cannae. Napoleon. Blitzkrieg. Heck, George Foreman vs Muhammad Ali in 1974. Time and again history has shown the importance of manuever, but some players absolutely insist on trying to force some battle of raw strength, even when they shouldn’t.
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I’ve explained Japan’s naval situation is precarious, and some readers I’m sure are thinking “if Japan’s navy can’t stand the pressure, how can Japan POSSIBLY afford to build ground units as well?”
I’ve already given the answer in brief in previous posts. Japan takes advantage of stretched Allied logistics chains and applies various other game mechanics that allow late yet effective Japanese naval/air action in the Pacific. I didn’t elaborate, but that’s the basics.
So Japan can afford to build ground. Not unthinkingly! Rather, Japan has very specific objectives with very specific requirements and timings, and should build ground, navy, and air as required.
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I mentioned earlier Japan has 13 ground in Asia, Allies 15 or 16 or whatever depending on UK India build and USSR Szechwan reinforcement, whatever. Japan has transports and can dump to the mainland, but with UK popping out 3 units at India a turn (and this is with US and UK pretty well totally ignoring Asia) you can see it’s an uphill battle for Japan - especially since UK and US fighters can quickly reposition from West Russia to India.
I’ve read some advising Japan can ignore India. That only works if your opponent is fantastically bad. Otherwise UK simply starts sending UK India units through Persia. And because some players totally have no fundamentals, they don’t understand how bad that is.
I’ll assume readers are somewhat competent. Germany is trying to build a stack big enough to break a combined USSR/UK/US stack. Does this sound familiar? Now if I say - which I do - that Germany needs to think very carefully about what it commits, where and when, because Germany wants to be able to get enough pressure to push that combined Allied stack backwards, and maybe even eventually break it, does that make sense?
Meanwhile, USSR is trying to build a stack big enough to push the Axis Europe stack back. Does that also sound familiar? It should.
So now think about it. Suppose Germany holds a 2-IPC European territory with 1 infantry. UK attacks with 1 infantry 1 fighter. It’s a favorable battle for UK, but what if UK loses its infantry? Then US has a turn. Then USSR has a turn. And if at all possible, and that’s often going to be the case because the Allies try to make exactly that happen, either UK or USSR ends up with income.
Then what happens? Remember USSR is trying to conserve all the units it can to threaten a major stack battle against the Axis in Europe. So if UK is spending UK units, well, that’s a USSR unit saved. If UK just clears but doesn’t claim a territory, that’s even better for Allies; USSR blitzes the territory with a tank on its turn and gets USSR income (amazing) and doesn’t even need to commit a unit.
This is the fundamentals of stack building and bleeding, which in turn is fundamental to Axis and Allies strategy.
But Japan makes gains if it ignores India? How, exactly? Japan moves in force right up to Russia? UK or USSR blow them up. So USSR can’t push Germany back as easily? Considering every turn of delay is another turn for UK and US to break through at Karelia that’s not enough. Japan can cripple itself with overextension and the Axis still lose. If that’s the plan Axis have to rely on luck delivering most of the game into their hands in the first place.
But say Japan moves in only one unit per territory, pressuring USSR to trade? I’d say that’s far less situational and much more consistent with Axis strategy, but in what world does that require some sort of brute force dump through Yunnan? It doesn’t. Japan only needs a small trickle of units if that, because the more USSR pushes back in east Asia, the longer USSR’s logistics lines get, the shorter Japan’s get. Japan LOVES it if USSR flails around blindly in Asia for 1-IPC territories, please do. If Japan could give up territory in Asia to TEMPT USSR out of position, then Japan should do that, only there’s no way for Japan to force USSR to do something it shouldn’t. In the KGF, the key battles are fought in Europe, and early, and that’s how it should be played.
So what happens when Japan just pushes through China? You could argue in some games it works, if Axis are already winning on economy / attrition / position. But how does that happen? I just mentioned lucksacking, and I’ll say it again. It’s not a solid plan. Japan should not allow UK to bleed Germany out in Europe unless there’s pretty solid reason to do so - and there probably isn’t reason to do so.
I already mentioned using India as for a backup sea zone after control of Japan’s sea zones are lost, and as I’ll get into later, India is also massively useful for Japan for loads of other reasons. For now, suffice to say that Japan can produce up to 8 units on Tokyo, but Tokyo is far from the action, Japan’s income can ramp up to 40+, and Japan can make good use of India and its IC, without having to foot the bill and sit on the delay of buying its own IC. Japan has horrible logistics issues, and India solves just about everything.
Yes, I did say Japan DOES ignore India. But in the one case in which it “does”, it actually doesn’t. Because in the scenario I’m talking about, what is it, J1 spends 15 IPCs on an industrial complex just to ensure ONE MORE DICE on the timing to Moscow? That’s how close it is. And if you think Japan can swiftly redirect tanks from the interior of USSR to India, well, that’s what I mean by Japan not really ignoring India after all. When Japan is spending crazy money for just one dice, you really think Japan is going to laugh off UK popping out three dice every turn? It shouldn’t and it won’t, and if UK does it (which it should, why wouldn’t it), then Japan needs to do what it has to do.
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Well, back to Japan in Asia.
Consistent with stack building/bleeding, you understand Japan really doesn’t want to let USSR have income. This is just entirely consistent with the basics. I also explained earlier that 5 USSR infantry on Buryatia screws USSR over even if it can possibly capture Manchuria because of opportunity costs and timing at Allied defense of West Russia, then there’s possibilities of Allied reinforcement coming through China and/or India, all of which I ignored to this point. And why? Because I say even against KJF Japan is dropping 6 ground units a turn into Asia. If the Allies ruin their holdings in Europe, let Germany storm in super fast, Japan probably still pushes in all over Asia, and if the Allies don’t ruin their holdings in Europe, probably Japan still pushes in all over Asia and Germany gets to where it’s going eventually anyways.
Why 6 ground? Why not 8? Or 4?
The answer links to references I’ve made earlier. Like UK producing three ground on India, two fighters on London, and flying the fighters from London to West Russia to India. Also as I mentioned UK has whatever air units survived UK1, probably there will be some fighters in that mix. So it’s not just that Japan’s trying to race 3 UK units on India a turn it’s more, and Japan has a pretty good-sized hump to get over in the first place. That’s why it isn’t 4 units, 4 really isn’t enough against competent Allies players.
Japan also wants to win at India pretty quickly. The faster India falls, the faster UK can’t put anything out there, the faster Japan can put things out there, the faster Japan has a springboard to Africa income.
I referenced stack building and bleeding, but also something about planned stack battles is, you don’t hold back. If you have just one more unit in a battle, that means a surviving unit the first round, the second round, the third round, any casualties inflicted are casualties that aren’t around to inflict casualties in turn later.
If India’s so important why not send more? Even against the KJF?
The only reason Japan “holds back” at all is because Japan is thinking about two stack battles - one in the Pacific, one in India. And Japan does need to start putting out submarines on J2 if there’s a US1 fleet drop. Otherwise Japan simply won’t have any cost-effective attack fodder (and submarines are quite nice when attacking too). That’s why it isn’t 8 ground units.
Finally, there are some issues with Japan’s production. Not just its logistics, but actually its production.
If UK hits Japan’s Kwangtung destroyer/transport then J1 buys three transports and ground. If UK hits Japan’s East Indies fleet then J1 buys carrier two transports. After that J2 is 2 subs 6 ground (using 30 IPCs, perhaps working in an artillery but even saving IPCs sometimes), then followup probably the same until Japan’s sea zones are interdicted, then Japan switches to fighter and/or bomber production, probably also Japan having done a Yunnan shift so there’s a block of infantry defending Tokyo against invasion (along with any Tokyo air builds).
And yes, if UK hits Japan’s East Indies fleet then J2 there’s some reason to go maybe 3 submarines instead of 2. Maybe even 4. Depends on the situation. But if it’s at all possible Japan should do early ground and late subs rather than early subs and late ground. Not that the subs should be too late, but sometimes Japan can get away with a late-round pure submarine buy. But if Japan tries to get away with a late-round pure ground buy after Japan’s already been pushed out of Asia, too little too late too bad.
Japan must make use of its production before the Allies cut Tokyo off. While Japan can pump out cheap subs and cheap ground and use Tokyo’s production to capcity, then it should do so. But if it’s KJF and the Allies interdict the sea zones around Japan, technically Japan might be able to build 6 submarines 2 infantry and do a main fleet defense of Tokyo but that’s probably not what Japan SHOULD do.
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Explaining Japan in Asia takes a bit of doing.
Remember the core Axis doctrine. That they want to make USSR bleed. That they want to build on Germany’s starting stacks and superior logistics.
So a lot of Japan players, they get fixated on the idea that they “have” to defend Asia. Because Asia “belongs” to Japan or whatever. But actually no. If Japan gives up all of Asia and its money islands besides (I mean Borneo, East Indies, Philippines, not mainland Japan), so what really? If the Axis crush Russia and have unit count, position, economy, and attrition, then that spells an Axis win. Yes, if Japan lets the Allies swarm too fast then that’s going to be a problem. But if Japan just slows the Allies down, then what?
And while Japan is “slowing the Allies down”, what does that mean? What does that all really mean? Does it mean Japan needs to fight some heroic lone last-ditch stupid defense? No. Think about it, if so much relies on the Axis breaking Russia before Japan’s defense crumbles too much in Asia, then what if Japan makes Russia fall faster? Because Japan CAN and SHOULD do exactly that.
And should Japan blow up its entire fleet, even to get some supposed “win” on IPC? No. That probably isn’t good either. You already understand Japan can shift between key sea zones. What happens when Germany brings a reserve fleet up? If UK has no fleet in the area, Germany moves, Japan moves, then US has to crack a combined Axis fleet. If US wasn’t crushing Japan’s navy to begin with, is that something that will reasonably happen? No. On the other hand if Germany’s racing to build a navy from scratch while trying to consolidate its position in Europe and Japan has nothing to begin with, it’s much harder for Germany. Defense trumps offense; you could argue submarines make navy a different story than ground but 70 IPCs of German/Japanese navy against 40 IPC of US reinforcements, you’ve got to figure how that goes.
So instead of thinking “Japan MUST defend this or that”, think. Just what can Japan give up? And when? And for how long? How does the position develop?
And it turns out Japan can give up a LOT Just about everything except Japan itself. Probably Japan doesn’t want to give up its money islands too fast, if UK and/or US pop down ICs then they can get big boosts to their timings. But even Japan’s money islands can be allowed to fall if the Axis have the position - which, with 1942 Online’s rules changes, is what I’d expect.
Suppose Japan’s been dumping ground into Asia right along. Suppose Japan’s been pushing those ground units in towards Russia, and why not? Axis doctrine is for Japan to try to bleed out USSR so Germany has less to deal with.
But if Japan’s dropping in six units a turn, probably USSR isn’t using six units a turn to fight Japan. Not hardly. If USSR figured its bets right, probably it’s fighting hard in Europe for those valuable territories. So that means Japan has a surplus of power in Asia for a while.
Yes, in a while it’s very difficult for Japan to hold Asia coast. But remember again what happens as US stretches its logistics lines further and further. Okay, so US can drop transports and a chunk of air against any Asian coast territory? Sure, let US land on the coast. Japanese units that landed on earlier turns reverse out of Asia and recapture the territories. And this can happen again and again and again. This is how Japan can lock US out of having industrial complexes working on the Asian coast even after Japan loses control of the Asian coast - because Japanese units are already in the interior. Even then, Japan isn’t forced into a “immediate must recapture” situation, US has to capture a territory, hold past a possible Japanese capture, build an IC, hold another turn, and only then can US produce units, and even then it’s not an assured defense. Japan has the logistics advantage and Japan can pick the timing, you can see that’s very nice.
Suppose US is pushing towards Borneo, East Indies, Philippines. Maybe interdicts the sea zones around Japan. But that isn’t easy for US either. It’s a lot easier for US if UK blew up Japan’s East Indies fleet, but even so, fighters on Tokyo protect Tokyo and threaten any number of sea zones, and India may be producing subs. And though Japan fighters can push in towards USSR (and be used to fight off any Allied navy in Atlantic, relieving pressure on Germany - or Japanese fighters can land on newly captured German territory to reinforce, though UK can counter), at some point Japan may decide to pull all its units out of Europe and Asia and head towards US in the coast. Not as some knee-jerk response, but if the Axis have calculated there’s no need for Japanese support in Europe any more, Japan might as well get on with the cleanup. And by that point maybe Japan has eight fighters so a two-carrier placement at India along with earlier Japan sub/destroyer builds sees a massive Japanese navy. Remember Japan’s income wasn’t crippled, Japan has Asia income, China income, India income, Africa income because Japan tried to push ground hard.
If Japan doesn’t push ground hard, then Allies wrap Japan up in Asia then start blowing up the money islands. As I mentioned earlier UK then sends all its India production to Europe, and Germany has to deal with it.
And I’ll point out - of all coastal Asia, what must Japan hold? It’s inconvenient if US gets a Manchuria IC, but even that’s not fatal. If Japan is on the brink of collapse on the ground in Asia and the Allies grab the coast then Japan’s wrecked. But if there’s swarms of Japanese ground inland? That’s going to be a problem. In the meantime, what can the Allies really do in the Pacific? Even if Japan’s sea zones are interdicted, the US can’t stop fighter production on Tokyo. US trying to recapture India is just incredibly tough in terms of logistics, it’s far more realistic in KGF that the Allies lose India then reclaim it after having secured UK/US ground through Karelia into Russia; if UK/US aren’t breaking through at Karelia, if there’s no reserve of UK units, if all the Allies can depend on is US’s super-long logistics lines in KJF, well, that’s going to suck for Allies. Even if US just sticks around Philippines, Borneo, East Indies, Japan is pumping out fighters on Tokyo and maybe navy near India, and the more US spends on navy/air the less US has any hope to reinforce Russia through Asia.
So now let’s think about Japan in Asia. What do the Axis need to do? Break Russia. How does any amount of Japanese naval expenditure help that? How does Japan getting pushed out of Asia help that? It doesn’t. Japan needs to have ground in Asia, even against KJF. ESPECIALLY against KJF.
Japan shouldn’t lose too much too fast in the Pacific either. But you saw how close the balance of power in Asia was to begin with. You see how US can spend 100% on Pacific and will until US wins. If Japan doesn’t dump a chunk of ground in Asia early, when will it do so? After Japan’s lost control of the sea zones around Tokyo so can no longer safely transport ground units? After Japan’s been pushed out of Asia and is losing money? When? Early or never.
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I mentioned I’d reference Japan in Europe even against KJF. Germany has nice starting stack sizes and better logistics against Russia than Japan, but even so, Berlin is some distance from Russia, and that’s a problem. German-held IC on Karelia helps, but Germany needs to push far and fast, try to grab Caucasus ASAP. How will Germany do that? Considering USSR also has huge starting stack sizes and is waiting to punch Germany in the mouth? With Japanese fighter reinforcements, Germany can push in, and if USSR punches there’ll be some bloody knuckles.
Besides USSR, there’s also Germany not wanting to use its air to sink any UK/US Atlantic fleet (and there may be some). Yes, it’s going to be a pain for Japan if a KJF is on, but it needs to be understood in some games that’s just what Japan should do. Instead of trying to do some sort of overkill losing defense in the Pacific, improve Germany’s timings, get Russia to fall that much faster, then the Axis can recover the position in Asia.
Imagine the alternative. Germany has to fight against UK/US’s navy and USSR’s ground? Splitting Germany’s stacks? That’s not what Axis want if they can help it. I mean really, that’s just totally counter to fundamentals. On the other hand, Japan taking on as much as it can, leaving the door open for Germany? That’s exactly what the Axis generally want.
I’m not saying in the KJF Japan should always be sending air to Europe. But even against KJF I send Japanese air to Europe far more often than not. Mind that’s part of a decently executed Germany, I’m not just saying to fly Japanese air in randomly.
Next up: the overview.