British Navy gone on G1?


  • 2007 AAR League

    is it possible to destroy the british navy on G1 bc i read it somewhere but i wasnt sure if it was possible



  • 😞  Yes, G can wipe out the British Navy on G1, if it wants to apply its resources to that battle.  Lots of Luftwaffe!


  • Official Q&A 2007 AAR League

    Sure it “can” be done but going after that BB and the TRNs in SZ2 is risky. That BB is going to get to swing twice unless I’m missing an aircraft that can reach or the Russian player doesn’t bring her/his sub in. Germany really can’t spare the FTRs IMO. I’m sure someone has some math on it. Or you roll the long range FTRs tech. I don’t think it is the best use of the resources G has at hand.



  • With LRA it MIGHT be viable.  Never ran those numbers.

    Without it, it is suicide.  You lose the Luftwaffe, odds in Egypt tilt in favor of UK, and Germany becomes a “land only” power due to the loss of their AF on G1.

    With the US’s economic might, and the fact that Africa will stay UK’s… not a good trade in my opinion.


  • 2007 AAR League

    mmk



  • The odds of victory on G1 against UK navy, all battles cumulative so that only “available” planes are used.  Most difficult to reach battle first… SZ1, then SZ2 have priority for forces…

    In SZ1:  SZ8 SUB
    64% chance of winning, 75% chance of clearing.

    In SZ2:  Norway FIG, Germany BOM
    w/o Russian Sub:  24% chance of winning (1 BOM survives), 42% chance of clearing.
    W/ Russian Sub:  16% chance of winning (1 BOM survives), 28% chance of clearing.

    In SZ13:  Western FIG, Germany FIG, Eastern FIG
    92% chance with 50% leaving 2 FIGs alive.

    In SZ15:  Southern BB & TRN, Balkans FIG
    99% win w/ all forces intact.

    In Egypt:  TRN from Southern w/ 1 INF, 1 ARM), Libya forces.
    W/ Ukraine FIG (if not destroyed on R1):  88% win, 50% w/ 1-2 ARM
    W/O UKR FIG:  56% win, 70% clear.

    So… after running the numbers on the SIM it may not be as bad as one may think of first glance.

    But… Germany will have only 3, possibly 4, FIGs left after G1, about half their FIGs gone.  But the odds for catastrophic falure are MUCH higher than in a more conservative openning that leaves SZ1 and SZ2 untouched… in which case Germany has ALL of their FIGs alive after G1 in most cases (perhaps only 5 depending on Ukraine in R1), and all of their navy, with 75% chance of 1 sub lost in SZ13.

    Germany with few FIGs invites rapid US deployment.  Germany with many FIGs provides for much slower US and UK deployment.

    And with a UK BB surviving, and quite possibly a TRN as well in SZ2, Germany will have sacrificed an average of 2 FIGs in order to kill 1 UK TRN and 1 Russian sub.  NOT a good trade.


  • 2007 AAR League

    but you would send the SZ8 Sub to SZ2 and Ignore SZ1 in G1, if this is to be attempted.



  • 😄  Thanks for the support, guys.  The original thread was whether destruction of UK navy was possible.  I posted the answer that it CAN be done, not that it SHOULD be done.  Lots of Luftwaffe would probably bite the dust, and G would be in dire straits.



  • @Nix:

    but you would send the SZ8 Sub to SZ2 and Ignore SZ1 in G1, if this is to be attempted.

    This would guarantee the loss of additional aircraft.

    If you leave the TRN in SZ1 alive, your BOM (and your FIG if it lives) would HAVE to land in Norway.  That means you eitehr leave your land forces in Norway (slowing the advance on Russia significantly, or you leave those AF basically unguarded against an attack of 1 INF, 1 ARM, 2 FIG, 1 BOM on UK1.

    Even with the INF left behind, UK has a 78% chance of destroying ALL forces in Norway IF the German FIG survived the battle in SZ2, 97% chance of destroying all forces without that German FIG that probably died in SZ2.


  • 2007 AAR League

    You can put 2 Figs that attacked UK BB in gibraltar in Norway….  (not saying it´s a “good” plan, but i guess that is the way to do it if you needed/wanted to)


  • Moderator

    To continue with Switch’s odds, while some of the battles may not be that bad, and Switch points out the potential loss of German aircraft, the overall odds for all these battles isn’t that great.

    It is not going to do you any good to do all these battles only to lose one of them.

    Excluding the Egy land battle, the odds that you would clear/win all of these battles on G1 is:

    .75 * .28 * .92 * .99 = 19.1%
    And that is with a loss of about 4 planes, if I counted right.

    That doesn’t seem worth it to me.  A 20% chance to win the game at best, also even if you do win these battles, you still aren’t guaraneteed victory.

    If you assume with say a bid of 6-10 you have ~50% chance to win, why reduce your odds 30% on your first turn?

    So yes it is possible, but I don’t think it is worth it.  Maybe if you bid another sub to the Atlantic or an extra ftr to Fin or something.

    I do find the attack on the UK BB, trn, w Rus sub intriguing BUT only if you bring in the Ger sub to absorb a hit.  Although, I still don’t think it is worth the early risk.

    Based on some of the games played here and what seems to be a “typical” G1 buy, it is probably better to just buy a G1 AC and let the UK kill their stuff trying to sink your fleet instead of the other way around.

    It is much easier/cheaper to defend then the attack.


  • 2007 AAR League

    @Nix:

    but you would send the SZ8 Sub to SZ2 and Ignore SZ1 in G1, if this is to be attempted.

    You would have to send the SZ8 sub to take out the trannie in SZ1 to obtain the objective of this thread “British Navy gone on G1?”.



  • I think the general consensus is you can pretty easilly cripple the Royal Navy (kill the Gibraltar BB and the Egyptian DST), but killing the whole fleet, while POSSIBLE, does not yield positive net results for Germany.  UK can too quickly rebuild (a single AC and they get a defense of 11 with their starting FIGs, and it only costs 16 IPC’s) and the US can too easilly sweep in since the risk from Germany AF is basically nil.


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