The Consensus seems to be that Japan is the favourite in A&AP:1940. This means that to balance the gloabl game Germany should be the dog in A&A Europe. The Allies will have to divert resources from Europe to Pacific or Japan will spill into the Middle East, Africa, and/or Russia.
I disagree. Even if Germany is favored in A&AE:1940, it could be balanced or favor the Allies in the global game. There are two reasons for this.
The first is strategic swing power. As discussed in another thread, the Allies (in particular the US and to a lesser degree UK and USSR) have the ability to “swing” their force from one theater to the other, the better to both concentrate their forces (which is why KGF is so disproportionately powerful a strategy in most other versions of the game) and to respond to specific threats as they develop.
The second is small-scale tactical interactions. To list two specific examples off the top of my head, USSRs Siberia setup (actually not part of the AAE40 setup, but still…) will do a lot to keep Japan “honest” and leave troops behind to defend Manchuria, which will slow Japan down in taking China and India. Also, UKs Mideast starting forces and African production will have the option (swing power) to help defend India, as will the potential Indian ocean fleet.
That’s true; those extra 18 infantry (or however many Russia gets in total) will not be in either “half-game” by itself, only in Global. I also doubt E40 will include the couple ANZAC infantry in the Mid-East (though perhaps they will simply be accounted for with UK infantry in the E40 setup versus the G40 setup), so in essence playing Global as opposed to the half-games has the potential (assuming an unchanged Axis setup) to basically give the Allies a 60+ IPC bid! Because of this alone, Germany/Italy doesn’t have to be weak in E40 for G40 to be balanced. And that’s not accounting for the “swing power” previously referred to, however the Global game will also be more taxing on the Allied player with the even greater need for coordination between the multiple powers across the whole board, while the Axis player gets theater-oriented powers that require a lesser amount of coordination.