Just to clarify….the OP is referring to the AE gambit in low luck. So he’s not really risking much by taking one less fig to UKR…he will still take it 100% but just with higher than av. losses.
It’s difficult to judge the efficacy of the gambit because whether it works or not depends on dice and the German player’s reaction. If Germany ends up skipping SZ2…then it worked. Or if Germany fails to actually take Egy, it worked. The main risk is if Germany goes to both 2 and Egy and succeeds… On the other hand, sometimes Germany will go to both 2 and Egy and get diced up…even 2 is not a sure thing in low luck because of the Russian sub.