Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB



  • I believe Moscow and then Norway are priorities.



  • @trulpen Is moscow on the roadmap anytime soon? I don’t see that Germany+Italy can overcome the stalemate on the Eastern Front unless they get their income up. The only way to get that up is to reclaim Norway. The Med is lost.

    I would attack Finland with ground troops and strafe Norway with the air force in the hope of getting lucky on G8. Perhaps send 18 mechs towards Greece that can be backed up with additional plane build. He needs to avoid the meat grinder in the Middle East.



  • I reran the numbers and he actually could capture Moscow on G9 if he goes all out next round in preparation. He likely wouldn’t lose any of his air force during the raid, although insufficient ground units would exist to follow up for a run towards Egypt unless the dice heavily favor him.

    The final push to the capitol would leave a big gap in the other fronts that the Allies would have three rounds to exploit. You would have room to establish a third beachhead in S France. I probably would take the gamble if I were Axis as there are few options to regain income now unless Moscow falls ASAP.



  • Does this analysis include more allied air-reinforcements?



  • @trulpen depending exactly on how Italy tries to help out, there is about a 60% chance of capturing Moscow. Many of those statistical victories are Pyrrhic with too few ground units to continue protecting the Eastern Front from a UK counter-push. I would give him about a 30% chance to win Moscow and still have 10-20 tanks left to continue expansion towards the Middle East.

    G9 is his most likely moment to capture Moscow until perhaps G14. I see a continued growth in allied defenses there as Russia adds another 10 infantry/turn and UK+USA can probably get another 4 fighters there / round. There is no way that Germany can devote another 32 attack points/round of additional forces there while trading off units in Scandinavia, the Balkans, and the Caucuses.

    Hence his only choices for victory is a G9 desperation assault or a long-game economic win. In such a case the fastest way to gain income would be recapturing Scandinavia, capturing and holding Caucuses, and conquering China. The trifecta is likely required if he wants to make progress in unit value.


  • 2020 2019 2018 2017

    Germany’s odds on G9 if they go all in are 39%. The Italians get 2-3 hits on average in a suicidal attack, and that only pushes the odds to 50% or a little better. I don’t think that is worth the risk. A loss is game ending, and in the event of a win, the effort opens up the rest of Europe to the Allies. But still, we should have been considering the possibility of the Italians going in first.



  • Think I did. Silently. A reason to access so much air.



  • Italy 7: Is my capitol safe? Yes. The US has a 6 infantry, 1 artillery, 2 fighters and 1 bomber attack plus a cruiser bombard followed by a UK 2 infantry, 1 artillery, 1 armor, 7 fighters and 1 tactical bomber attack plus a 3 cruiser and battleship bombard. Luckily UK has a lot of planes but not a lot of ground troops and US has a lot of ground troops but not a lot of planes. So realistically Italy has enough to hold already since I doubt the Allies would squander their Allied air force just to take out Rome. Even with no reinforcements and an all-out US sacrifice the Allies have about a 60% chance of taking it. Why do that when Italy is already out of the game? So, I can use my two planes elsewhere if I want and still be safe with a new build. The main problem is anything in Northern Italy is dead so can only build 3 units. That will not be a problem next Turn since Italy is going to be broke anyway so may save some money.

    So, what to do? The Italian fleet is dead therefore do I attack SZ92 to get the most bang for my buck? 31% chance but I lose both planes and on average kill 5 units. That means most likely, SS, 2 DD, CA, CV with both fighters and both transports surviving. But without that I probably kill just a couple of subs when he attacks me. So, is it worth a fighter and a bomber to on average kill $50 instead of $12 with the hope of the lucky 30% winner take all? Maybe…

    Greece is the only other target. A mere 13% chance there and most likely I am not even killing a plane. Since Germany has no ground troops nearby even a strafe is useless especially since the French are going to land 2 infantry there after the Italian attack. And with no Italians there the Allies will break out. Nope – not Greece.

    So SZ92 or nothing. If I do nothing can I hold Bulgaria? Probably. US has no real attack and the UK attack is again mostly planes. So, if I hold Bulgaria then that minimizes the southern threat. That is good but then I lose the Italian fleet on the cheap. So, the comparison is try and kill a few more ships on the sea that I have already lost or try and protect land that I still own. Protecting land seems the better way to go. Bye-bye Italian Navy.

    In Northern Africa make sure the Allies do not clear off the Italian ground troops so Russia can claim Tobruk and Libya. Already Russia is getting too much money from Africa. Italy did not do their job this game. Got too cocky early on with all that money and did not protect its territories the way it should have. Costing the Axis now. Bad, bad Italy.



  • TripleA Turn Summary: Italians round 7

    TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 4.0

    Game History

    Round: 7
    
        Purchase Units - Italians
            Italians buy 2 fighters; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - Italians
    
        Combat - Italians
    
        Non Combat Move - Italians
            8 mech_infantrys moved from Romania to Bulgaria
            1 aaGun and 3 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Southern Italy
            1 aaGun moved from Southern France to Normandy Bordeaux
            1 infantry moved from Southern France to Normandy Bordeaux
            3 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from Holland Belgium to Normandy Bordeaux
            1 armour, 1 artillery, 3 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Tobruk to Libya
            1 battleship and 1 submarine moved from 93 Sea Zone to 94 Sea Zone
    
        Place Units - Italians
            2 fighters placed in Southern Italy
    
        Turn Complete - Italians
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 10
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 2,5,6,4,4,3,4,6,5,4,5,3,2,6,6,4,1,4,6,6,2
            Italians collect 8 PUs (10 lost to blockades); end with 8 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Savegame



  • TripleA Turn Summary: French round 7

    TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 4.0

    Game History

    Round: 7
    
        Purchase Units - ANZAC
            ANZAC buy 1 destroyer and 2 submarines; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - ANZAC
            1 submarine moved from 33 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
    
        Combat - ANZAC
            Battle in 42 Sea Zone
                ANZAC attack with 1 submarine
                Japanese defend with 1 transport
                    1 transport owned by the Japanese lost in 42 Sea Zone
                    ANZAC roll dice for 1 submarine in 42 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                ANZAC win, taking 42 Sea Zone from Japanese with 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 transport
    
        Non Combat Move - ANZAC
            2 submarines moved from 26 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from New South Wales to 62 Sea Zone
            2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 62 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 33 Sea Zone to Caroline Islands
            1 artillery moved from New South Wales to South Australia
            2 infantry moved from Iraq to Northwest Persia
    
        Place Units - ANZAC
            1 destroyer and 2 submarines placed in 62 Sea Zone
    
        Turn Complete - ANZAC
            ANZAC collect 10 PUs; end with 10 PUs
            Objective ANZAC 2 Control Strategic Islands: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 15 PUs
    
        Combat Move - French
            1 fighter moved from Eastern Persia to 79 Sea Zone
    
        Combat - French
            Battle in 79 Sea Zone
                French attack with 1 fighter
                Japanese defend with 1 transport
                    1 transport owned by the Japanese lost in 79 Sea Zone
                French win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 transport
    
        Non Combat Move - French
            1 fighter moved from 79 Sea Zone to Persia
            2 infantry moved from Iraq to Northwest Persia
            1 destroyer moved from 92 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from 97 Sea Zone to Greece
    
        Turn Complete - French
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    ANZAC : -0,33
    

    Savegame



  • The suggested turn from Franz.

    No dice rolled except the sub-bug, so carried out all of it. Will hold a few days before finalizing in order to welcome comments.



  • @trulpenplay Do you want to take some of those ANZAC fighters off of the US carrier? At some point you might want the additional offensive power of having the USA fighters.



  • Also, do you want to grab Celebes this round? It seems worth it to exchange equal value of ANZAC and Japan.

    Perhaps a few ANZAC fighters in Queensland can be used to take out Japanese destroyer which is used to kill your sub.



  • They are quite nice to have there. Means the aussie figs have a reach of up to 7 moves. Easier to take fortified islands, killing off stray trannies etc.


  • 2020

    My only suggestion would be to change the buy to include a transport for ANZAC. Maybe 2 SS + tran or tran+inf+ftr. It keeps pressure on J to defend DEI plus whatever else the Caroline group wants to attack.



  • Think I’ll change the purchase and include a tr.

    Might actually be a good idea to take Celebes.



  • Except that it isn’t reachable. The tr was moving out from z62.



  • TripleA Turn Summary: French round 7

    TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 4.0

    Game History

    Round: 7
    
        Purchase Units - ANZAC
            ANZAC buy 1 destroyer and 2 submarines; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - ANZAC
            1 submarine moved from 33 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
    
        Combat - ANZAC
            Battle in 42 Sea Zone
                ANZAC attack with 1 submarine
                Japanese defend with 1 transport
                    1 transport owned by the Japanese lost in 42 Sea Zone
                    ANZAC roll dice for 1 submarine in 42 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                ANZAC win, taking 42 Sea Zone from Japanese with 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 transport
    
        Non Combat Move - ANZAC
            2 submarines moved from 26 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from New South Wales to 62 Sea Zone
            2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 62 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 33 Sea Zone to Caroline Islands
            1 artillery moved from New South Wales to South Australia
            2 infantry moved from Iraq to Northwest Persia
    
        Place Units - ANZAC
            1 destroyer and 2 submarines placed in 62 Sea Zone
    
        Turn Complete - ANZAC
            ANZAC collect 10 PUs; end with 10 PUs
            Objective ANZAC 2 Control Strategic Islands: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 15 PUs
    
        Combat Move - French
            1 fighter moved from Eastern Persia to 79 Sea Zone
    
        Combat - French
            Battle in 79 Sea Zone
                French attack with 1 fighter
                Japanese defend with 1 transport
                    1 transport owned by the Japanese lost in 79 Sea Zone
                French win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 transport
    
        Non Combat Move - French
            1 fighter moved from 79 Sea Zone to Persia
            2 infantry moved from Iraq to Northwest Persia
            1 destroyer moved from 92 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from 97 Sea Zone to Greece
    
        Turn Complete - French
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by ANZAC from 62 Sea Zone: 1 destroyer
            EDIT: Adding units owned by ANZAC to 62 Sea Zone: 1 transport
            EDIT: Changing PUs for ANZAC from 15 to 16
            EDIT: Removing units owned by ANZAC from South Australia: 1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 2 infantry
            EDIT: Adding units owned by ANZAC to Queensland: 1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 2 infantry
            EDIT: Removing units owned by ANZAC from New South Wales: 1 mech_infantry
            EDIT: Adding units owned by ANZAC to Queensland: 1 mech_infantry
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    ANZAC : -0,33
    

    Savegame



  • @Arthur-Bomber-Harris said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:

    @trulpenplay Do you want to take some of those ANZAC fighters off of the US carrier? At some point you might want the additional offensive power of having the USA fighters.

    A bit later I might cut it down to 2 aussie figs only.



  • Consider the turn finalized.


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