Beating J1

@arthur-bomber-harris

These screenshots follow your original write up through round 2. I believe we agreed that putting only a small Jap fleet off Malaya J3 would not be safe, so I consolidated the fleet there on J3, then the original fleet joins up with the newly purchased ships in the Philippines J4. I know in the ensuing discussion other options were brought up such as just going straight for India.

@mikawagunichi

1. I am confused what happened on J1. See image below for a standard bovine opening. Was Yunnan a failure, or did he not send the 3inf+1art+tac+fighter that is standard and should win a vast majority of times? I wouldn’t spend anything in the Pacific for the United States after Japan got diced.

2. What did Japan build on J1? I don’t see any extra IJN that made it down south on J2… what is the opponent doing?

3. I see one aircraft task force was destroyed on J2. What did the Allies lose in the exchange?
   

@arthur-bomber-harris said in Beating J1:

@mikawagunichi

1. I am confused what happened on J1. See image below for a standard bovine opening. Was Yunnan a failure, or did he not send the 3inf+1art+tac+fighter that is standard and should win a vast majority of times? I wouldn’t spend anything in the Pacific for the United States after Japan got diced.

2. What did Japan build on J1? I don’t see any extra IJN that made it down south on J2… what is the opponent doing?

3. I see one aircraft task force was destroyed on J2. What did the Allies lose in the exchange?
   

1. I personally don’t send that much to Yunaan since any land units that live will die when China couterattacks, I like to take Hunan, send 2 info Kwangtung, and have all TTs fully loaded.

2. 2 TTs, 1 minor complex

3. This file may be corrupted or AAA is glitching but I’m getting tons of errors when viewing history. Thought I got it worked out but I didn’t catch the missing carrier there. Nothing has been destroyed, there hasn’t been any major naval combat yet.

@mikawagunichi it looks like Japan defeated itself on that J1 opening. The position is so much inferior than typical for a bovine playbook. I am very confused what happened to all of the units in SE China since they accomplished so little unless somehow they got diced. I think your opponent is quite weak.

If Yunnan is being intentionally skipped, the priority will be to capture India on J3 or J4 as China is already out of control at the end of the first round with little ability to get it back down until an additional Allied regional power is defeated. Japan need a 3 transport purchase on the first round, leaving out the mIC because time is of an essence.

J2: a) attack Burma with a loaded transport and all of the air that can reach. b) capture Malaysia and Shan State. c) build an air base and harbor in FIC, being prepared for a J3 capture of India with 4 loaded transports and about 19 planes.

Alternatively the attack on India can be delayed until J4, but time is of such an essence with the USA1 bomber build. Probably best to go early to knock out a power and then return to the Spice Islands in an unusual chronological order given the unusual start.

@arthur-bomber-harris

I followed the plan as laid out by AndrewAAgamer. That discussion didn’t get into land unit movements, it was really just about keeping the Jap fleet safe from the US fleet/bombers.

I tend to agree with you though, that skipping the money islands and dashing straight for India would probably be better given the positioning of the US units. Japan could then use a bunch of that money gained to buy more fleet, and consolidate the combined fleet off FIC on J4 or J5 and at that point have a large enough flee to withstand and a US attack.

@mikawagunichi Land units are so key to the game. India should be in retreat after a normal J1 attack as the massive air force should be scary enough to prevent the UK from wanting to risk half of its defensive strength. The IJN moves are also bizarre as the fleet is missing an aircraft carrier group and three transports that should be in the theater at the end of J2.

With such poor gameplay from the Axis, this is hardly convincing that the USA bomber build strategy will hold up during the first 4-5 rounds. I see this problem quite frequently for innovative plans that are good against bad players but don’t stand a chance against more seasoned opponents.

@arthur-bomber-harris

If you read Andrew’s original write up, some units were moved back to SZ6 to protect the newly built units there. Could have done with less if a blocker was used but for some reason he didn’t want to do that, or at least prove it wasn’t mathematically necessary.

The OPs question was how to deal with a J1 attack, but there was no mention of what was going on in Europe. IME Germany is a much bigger threat to win the game than Japan and I personally like to use US money in the Atlantic early on, but that probably wouldn’t be a helpful response.

@shadowhawk The map I posted was the standard cow J1 playbook opening results that are stickied in the Forum. The dice are reasonably typical of a normal game with some battles being above and some below the typical outcome.

It would be easier to discuss how to respond based on this “standard” end of J1 map instead of all of the permutations, especially those without a successful attack into Yunnan.

Everything in the entire game changes if that move fails and China becomes a monster with a large artillery-containing stack supported with additional Russian/UK Pacific pieces that can’t be addressed until much later in the game and at enormous economic consequences to Japan. No point turning this thread into what happens if Japan gets diced on a J1 or what to do against a poor Axis player who does a J1.

Asking again – is this thread about stopping J1 or about dealing with J1?

It it’s about stopping J1, that’s easy. Bid two strat bombers for Amur and Sakha and destroy the Japanese fleet in sea zone 20.

Alternately, bid three strat bombers for Amur, Sakha, and Buryatia and destroy the Japanese fleet in sea zone 19.

Each one also gets to kill a Japanese transport if dice go average. At least one of the bombers can land safely out of range of Japanese ground forces with some Chinese infantry, and then head west on R2 to annoy the Germans or stick around in the Pacific to annoy the Japanese.

This was not my idea by the way, but it seems like it would be pretty effective at stopping J1.

Marsh

@marshmallow-of-war agreed that we are getting side tracked of using the bid to beat J1. I should not have introduced that topic. Anyway, spending a large amount of the bid in the Pacific theater is probably not as efficient as a European/African/Atlantic bid.

@ShadowHAwk that BB hits a considerable fraction of the time. I usually roll that battle last as it can be a tough decision whether to lose the ship or a plane. So much can depend on the outcome of the other battles as they will determine how much will be needed to go after China vs pushing into the Spice Islands/India

@arthur-bomber-harris It’s a no-brainer – you lose the fighter. You have spares of those, but not a lot of spare ships and the US Navy is coming.

Marsh

@shadowhawk

Agreed. I usually only send the fig and 2 strats. Save the cruiser with the borneo group. Need as many escorts for those TTs as possible.

How are you protecting FIC if you do not block with the Cruiser?

@andrewaagamer

I’m not. If the UK wants to sacrifice their only transport to take back FIC for one round instead of a higher value use in ME/Africa/DEI that’s fine with me.

and even if there is a Cruiser, the UK can choose to strafe the two FIC infantry, ensuring that Yunnan remains in Chinese hands on round 2. It is a risky gambit for the Allies, but worth it if playing G40 without bid.

You have to take big risks as Allies in the first couple of rounds because turns 3-5 are mostly scripted with little chance for luck to get involved. In many matches, the game has been decided by turn 6.

@arthur-bomber-harris I dunno, I’m in Andrew’s camp on this one. When you win by gambling big, you have to take a lot of big gambles and eventually one will not work out.

Marsh

@shadowhawk Yes, but the UK does have to kill the cruiser if you leave it, putting more forces at risk. The UK on the other hand really can’t do anything about the fighter until you use it against India, meaning the UK won’t put any units in harms way for you to destroy and can use those units elsewhere.

Marsh

@mikawagunichi said in Beating J1:

@andrewaagamer

I’m not. If the UK wants to sacrifice their only transport to take back FIC for one round instead of a higher value use in ME/Africa/DEI that’s fine with me.

Not sure what you mean by higher value.

1. Taking Persia gives UK Europe $2 and sets up a take of Iraq on UK2 instead of UK3 so it is basically a $4 play. The transport survives.

2. Assisting an attack on Ethiopia takes a high chance battle to virtually a guaranteed battle saving probably on average an infantry or $3. The transport survives.

3. Taking Sumatra gives UK Pacific $4. The transport dies.

4. Hitting FIC results in a standard 83% take or 98% if a fighter is lost if necessary. The transport is lost. Japan has no ground units to retake Yunnan so China is helped and without control of FIC Japan does not get a mIC in the south for one entire Turn. UK Pacific gains $2.

Of those four choices number 4 seems to be the highest value.

@andrewaagamer I dunno guy – it seems like you’re not taking into account the value of the transport.