This is just me commiserating more then helping, 🙂
but i can add sending 3 subs, 1 cruiser, 2 planes against a rus sub, 1 destroyer and 1 battleship and transport. and Britain keeps the battleship and transport.
Generally though if your opponent takes stupid risks they will keep taking stupid risks with all nations they are playing. it might pay off once against Germany but fail catastrophically against Japan.
I would recommend hanging around a few turns, underdog come back wins might be rare but they are the most satisfying by far.