Re: âussr will have 2 aa guns, 3 tanks, 2 art, 5 inf normally in west russia (sometimes 6 or 4 inf)â, âattack Baltic states, belorussia, and West Russiaâ, âussr Baltic opener . . . two of them have >90% chance of victory (3 inf, 1 tank, 1 fighter vs 3 inf) and (8 inf, 3 tanks, 2 artillery vs 3 inf 1 art 1 tank).â
. . . and 1 inf 1 art 1 fig vs 1 inf 1 tank at Baltic States, I assume.
Superficially, the numbers seem to check out. But take a good hard look at the numbers, and not just the net IPC changes, but the resulting positions, counters, and followups remembering dice variance.
Saying youâll have 5 infantry at West Russia? Reasonable, but not something to depend on. Sometimes 6? If you get lucky. Sometimes 4? Perhaps, but also you might see 3, 2, or less.
And what happens in case of cascade failure? Suppose you do a bit badly at West Russia. Youâre prepared for that? But suppose you also do badly at Belorussia. Now Germany has more to counter with, and thereâs nothing USSR can do about it once the triple has been committed to.
Nothing can counter super bad dice, but a Ukr/W Rus open is slightly less vulnerable.
"I doubt a smart player would . . . "
You really think Germany would hesitate to destroy both USSRâs AA guns, three tanks, and two artillery, and cut off UK fighters flying from London to West Russia, along with a possible G1 tank build for quick early pressure and possibly even a J1 Manchuria IC to pump tanks on the timing - along with G2 starting with control of Karelia?
âa retreat after round 1â
Instead of assuming Germany stupidly overcommits tanks and loses them to an easy counter that canât be punished, or assuming Germany needlessly exposes air to AA guns, how about assuming Germany correctly calculates the balance of ground and air that has about a 85%+ probability to capture West Russia and destroy all USSRâs valuable ground units? Not overkill, not underkill, but just about right, and if the attack on West Russia isnât favorable then of course Germany doesnât hit that and goes to Caucasus - but again, Germany doesnât overcommit.
Youâre assuming Germany does a 1-turn attack into West Russia then retreats after exposing German air to AA fire, without Germany even attempting to blow up USSRâs valuable tanks. What was it you were just saying about smart players? So it wonât just be a 1-turn attack, right?
âso you prefer Germany can put 5 tanks and 9 inf in Kareliaâ
Letâs not get sidetracked. Thereâs a lot that could be said about R1, G1, builds, attacks, counters, contingencies, percentages - but suffice to say I donât say Ukr/W Rus is SAFE (in fact, I donât think it IS, and thatâs one of the reasons I push for preplaced bid which the developers wonât do but eh whatever).
But I do think Ukr / W Rus open has better outcomes than a triple open.
As to âyou prefer Germany can put 5 tanks and 9 inf in Kareliaâ, do you think thereâs a perfect answer? What would that be?
You do R1 tank build and retreat tanks from Ukraine for a heavy R1 counter to Karelia? Even then, how do you answer G1 tanks mobilized on Berlin? I donât say G1 super heavy tank build, but just say Germany sticks two tanks on Berlin. Pretty good odds that means G2 captures and secures Karelia, especially if Japanese fighters are in range, which they may well be. But then you do an attack/retreat into Karelia to strain German logistics? Very well, then on G1 Germany sees USSR lined up with that mighty counter and instead just doesnât do a heavy push to Karelia, then Germany captures and holds Karelia on G2.
Plainly, Iâm saying if the Axis player is competent, Allies wonât have easy answers. Wonât matter if itâs USSR triple open or Ukr/West Russia, it wonât be easy. If it were, wouldnât be much of a game.
If you want to go into R1 W Rus/Ukr open and the Karelia game, letâs have that discussion, but thatâs a thread of itself.
âmed fleet . . . allows uk fleet in India to . . . nearly impossible to take Egypt in (g2)â
I believe this is another topic better covered in another thread.
But I will say, before starting another thread, think on it a moment. If Germanyâs about to smash the **** out of Europe, it doesnât need to push in Africa, and thereâs a decent chance something like that gets lined up after a USSR triple open. Also, youâre not considering what happens if Germany lands a chunk of air in Africa, and of course why would you because you probably donât see it much. And maybe youâll pull the âUK builds an Atlantic fleet if Germany puts fighters in Africaâ and Iâll shrug and say I donât care because if UK dropped a carrier and a fighter Iâll reposition air on G2 (even better if I have the bomber) and blow up UKâs fleet at low cost to German air if they dare to drop, and if they stand off then Iâll just continue shenanigans in Europe. Then you can come back and say something else and Iâll say something else and thatâs how it goes. But on balance, the question is what is gained and what is lost?
ânot destroying the fighter in egypt . . . sz 37â
You want to roll the dice on UK1 vs Japanâs East Indies fleet, go for it. I think itâs a bad deal. Which is another thread.
Yes yes, you have ideas and you wonât be dissuaded, and thatâs fine. Either youâll try it over and over and fail when you come up against decent competition and youâll change your mind, or youâll try it against decent competition and win and maybe do a writeup and Iâll change my mind. But either way weâre not there right now.
But before you get into future writeups:
I donât worry too much about IPC swings. I tend to think about things in terms of unit counts, positions opening up, and other less-tangibles. Yes, keeping an eye on IPC changes is important, but itâs definitely not the only thing to keep an eye on by far.
Donât just think about 95% or whatever. Think about the resulting position. Think about the opportunity costs. Think about dice swings. Cascade failure. Concentration of force versus spreading out.
It is not safe to assume an opponent will not attack because of negative IPC expectation. No, really.
At Belorussia you look at 3 inf 1 tank 1 fighter vs 3 inf, see 95% win, looks super good, right? But actually itâs not that hot, as the above link and some thinking shows.
4.58% no attackers survive (disaster)
5.56% attacking fighter survives (lost 15 IPCs of units for 9 IPCs of units and didnât gain any income from capturing territory. Unless you want to lose the fighter, which is amazesauce for Germany so I assume you donât do that.)
(Calculation aids state 5% loss. But there are different degrees of loss; here thereâs at least a 10% of a strictly unfavorable outcome. Thatâs one thing players using aids often may miss.)
15.1% attacking tank and fighter survive. Which is where the situation becomes barely tolerable; at least you capture the territory and trade off 9 IPCs of attackers for 9 IPCs of defenders. But the tank is lost on the counter.
But what happens after the German counter? Pretty good chance that 6 IPC tank dies in exchange for perhaps a German infantry. Letâs say the tank has 2/3 chance to destroy a 3 IPC infantry (I know tanks hit 1/2 the time, but letâs just use 2/3 for Reasons), so USSR expects to gain 2 IPC from possibly destroying a German infantry, 2 IPC from the territory, meaning net gain 4 IPC in exchange for a 6 IPC tank.
Yes, USSR does have positional considerations that offset the 2 IPC difference, but the positional pressure isnât all that great. Germany has much better options when USSR is spread thin, and if as already mentioned thereâs some level of cascade failure then USSR will be in big trouble.
Now letâs look at West Russia.
Letâs say 20.22% for 4 inf 2 art 3 tank 2 AA or less. Reasonably likely, and Iâll use 4 inf 2 art 3 tank 2 AA as the baseline. Germanyâs counter is up to 3 inf 1 art 3 tank 4 fighter 1 bomber, without giving up attacking the UK battleship/destroyer.
But also G1 capture of West Russia prevents Allied fighters from landing on, keeping it in play.
If youâre thinking ânah, Germany needs to maintain its air force to threaten Atlantic shippingâ - as Iâve written in other threads, I use Japanese air for that when going anti-KGF. Germany still does well to have some air, the more the better, but smashing all USSRâs tanks and preventing fortification of West Russia? Maybe thatâs only 20% to have favorable odds of all that following a USSR triple open as was described, but thatâs still more than the odds Germany has against a Ukr/W Rus open.
