I agree that the video is a low blow.
Aardvark, your posts are so long and meandering that it is difficult to engage in this format. Maybe in a discussion or actual play game, your views would be clearer.
Principles, logic, and math are all useful towards the goal of becoming a stronger Axis and Allies player. But these hypotheses are empirically tested through actual games and whether it leads to better outcomes and more wins. Quintin and I generally aren’t commenting with the same degree of specificity as you are. Such detail distracts from the main insight.
Back to the original topic. Germany “sealion” attempting to take UK capital early (rounds 2-4) is a weak strategy that has a low axis win rate. This is because germany pays a high opportunity cost of less pressure on Russia and because Allies can powerfully repel this line. Starting with buying 8 inf into UK round 1 and following up with merging us and UK fleets round 3. By round, germany’s fleet is dead barring extraordinary circumstances.