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Japan Attacking Northeast Russia Accompanied by Sealion

  • Operation Sealion is a good strategy that has a big problem after it is executed: a lot of your forces on mainland Germany, Poland, w/e were used to gobble up London and maybe Scotland, and therefore the Soviets can put pressure on you immediately after taking London using their buys for 3 or 4 turns and starting units.  However, if Japan goes all-in on those 18 inf 2 AAA (sometimes 12 inf 2 AAA, sometimes nothing because they retreat to Moscow), you can take some of the Russian income and force some of the Russian units to focus on Japan/China because they don’t want to lose the 9 IPC income from the Northeast territories, since that is 20% of their IPCs.  So Japan could divert Russia’s attention to two fronts, thus allowing Germany some extra lee-way in regards to Sealion.

    Btw, by all-in I mean every unit that can reach the territory would go there and attack it J1, though not declaring war on the Pacific allies and still attacking Yunnan and the other three Chinese territories in reach of the coastal units.  Japan wouldn’t declare war on them until J3, and on J3 they could ideally take all of the money islands and not lose much momentum at all.  Though a Korean or Manchurian IC would be best so they could flood maybe 3 mechs per turn to the Northeast or China.  Also I know the Mongolian rule would take place, thus resulting in 3 inf that could go to Moscow and 3 inf that could put up a minor roadblock in Northeast Russia/China, but those infantry do not really matter because they could easily be taken out right away using air power and starting land units.  Russia would lose more IPCs in the Northeast than the 9 IPCs of infantry they would be given over 3 turns.

  • An effective Sea Lion should:

    1. not tip Sea Lion on G1
    2. Germany still has 23-26 inf, 2 art, 2-3 tanks to stack in Romania, hopefully pushing Russia’s invasion to Finland/Norway and Poland
    3. can’t let your transports get sunk so Germany can hit all territories on the Baltic Sea on G5

    So, one issue is Russia usually doesn’t have anything in Amur on J1.  And using transports to shuck troops there means they’re not taking new territories like the Philippines or Money Islands OR reinforcing the Yunnan attack.  Also means UKPac and ANZAC can safely take Sumatra and Java/Celebes and hold for at least 2 but probably 3 rounds (so +12 for UKPac, +18 for ANZAC)

    My point being that you better not screw up Sea Lion if you do this because if it fails or even just if you lose all the German transports, the game could very well be over.

  • 2018 2017

    Russia gets 4 turns to get angry.  This transforms russia from a pushover to pretty much equal to what is left in Germany after the SL forces are delivered.  If you’ve bid or patched the game to make Russia survivable during a G2/Crussia, then by G4 Russia is even stronger.

    You want to avoid entry of the US into the war as long as possible if this is the plan, because they have several ways of boggling the SL if you J1’d or J2’d.  Attacking russia doesn’t affect this consideration since its a separate war declaration.

    Japan can only be assured to wipe out the Russian Far East Army if it’s standing on the coast.  If it’s anywhere else, you can chase it with all your forces but they can run so its destruction isn’t guaranteed.  Over many games you will note that the Japan forces that are fighting up there are stuck and air support cannot cover this area and other key areas at the same time.  Its a backwater, so whether you take it with 3 units or 50, they’re stuck up there until much later in the game on a slow walk, you get some modest income but all the other potential areas of attack are more lucrative and strategic and require your air force to hang out elsewhere.  Yes, you are compromising RUS income, but without Germany and Italy helping, it doesn’t have a decisive effect.

    In the Crussia strategy, taking these territories is key but doing so without compromising the rest of Japan goals is a challenge of timing and spreading out.  If you are attempting Sea Lion, you will see Russia has a lot more choices and time, which is a disaster for the Axis if London isn’t part of the bargain.

    Sea Lion has poor odds against a well prepared UK, plus there is a foolproof tell that SL is going to happen–the German player keeps his armor on west Germany and it doesn’t flood troops east.  He moves infantry west, not east, because he wants to focus cash on transports, not units to fill them, which he already has.  If the UK buys 2fig/1fig+6 Inf, and he has the 2 units from canada, your odds are uninviting no matter exactly how you prepare the invasion.

    If Italy could help, or Germany could drop a second round of troops, the odds increase.  However, the likely outcome on the odds is that you lose most of your German landers, your fleet is hardly invulnerable to counterattack and its stuck in the channel.  Anything short of taking London out is a total failure here, and its 85% likely to fail.  If the US is in the war, or enters the war (because you took London) there are a couple of rescue plans available and the US can hit your fleet from SZ 91.  As WS said, losing the transports, the bulk of your tanks, all the money to build navy, and facing an unrestrained Russian Bear means a quick Axis capitulation.

  • Viability of Sealion aside, I think Japan’s best option to support a Sealion is to blitz the Pacific hard in order to either delay America’s liberation of London or take advantage of America’s focus in the Atlantic.

    Russia is unlikely (and would be unwise) to send units east to save a handful of IPCs. While Russia losses 1-2 IPCs a turn, Japan is has to dedicate huge amounts of it’s land and air forces to chasing the Amur stack across Siberia. And what does that look like when you factor in build time and location? 2 less infantry on the Russia/German boarder on R6? 6 less on R9? It’s just not enough gain for the investment.

    Every turn delay to liberating London, on the other hand, keeps Atlantic UK’s entire income out of the war. It provides 8ipc per turn to Germany, which it can use much more efficiently than Japan. It keeps cash cows like Norway in German hands. A monster Japan is itself a huge threat of a victory city win, and forces the Allies to react accordingly instead of pounding Germany.


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