Does Game Length Affect Chances of Victory?

  • '17

    @Karl7:

    From my experience playing the game on the forum hundreds of time, the longer the game usually indicates Axis likely victory.

    Usually, the Axis is able to expand first 5-6 turns, hold their gains against allied counters next 7-12 turns, and then the Axis gain the money edge and the allies slowly realize they’ve lost, next 13-16 turns.

    Are you referring to Global 40 or BM3?

    (Obviously, this forum discussion is for G40…in G40 games, I think longer games often favor the Allies, but in BM3 games, due to the NO advantages, I think longer games favor the Axis).

  • '22 '20 '19 '18 '17 '16 '15 '14 '12

    @Ichabod:

    @Karl7:

    From my experience playing the game on the forum hundreds of time, the longer the game usually indicates Axis likely victory.

    Usually, the Axis is able to expand first 5-6 turns, hold their gains against allied counters next 7-12 turns, and then the Axis gain the money edge and the allies slowly realize they’ve lost, next 13-16 turns.

    Are you referring to Global 40 or BM3?

    (Obviously, this forum discussion is for G40…in G40 games, I think longer games often favor the Allies, but in BM3 games, due to the NO advantages, I think longer games favor the Axis).

    I think the dynamic is true for both OBB or BM.


  • Among others …  it depends on 3 main factors:

    1. Bid… and Bid placement

    2. Extent of risk Germany and Japan are willing to take in their initial attacks.
      Big risks if successful, give amazingly huge rewards!
      Classic examples: J1- Carolines DD against Sydney DD+TR
      G1 - 1/2Mech+Tank+ FTR  against 2 Inf in S.France… in addition to 1 UBoat attacks on Gib CRU, Canada Fleet…
        Barely enough to leave 1-2 Inf in Yugo alive for Romania slide…

    3. Scramble or not decision of London.

    Hence “order” of battles are important!!!

    If some, especially the important battles go Badly for Axis…
    Ex: Paris holds, UK BB and FTRs survive SZ110… Yunnan holds…
    Axis may as well as concede, call it over and restart a new game.

    The Stinker, is that if all these attacks succeed… the Allies (after Failed Taranto/Tobruk) may as well as throw in the towel.

    So… it could be a really short game either way…

    Hence… important to remember that if you’ve decided you want to play a decent game… that is well fought and are there for the fun… try not to go in with 50-50 odd battles… in beginning of game… esp as Axis…
    Unless game is so important… Bid so huge… that you really have no choice…

    -Mein Herr

  • '22 '20 '19 '18 '17 '16 '15 '14 '12

    @Karl7:

    @Ichabod:

    @Karl7:

    From my experience playing the game on the forum hundreds of time, the longer the game usually indicates Axis likely victory.

    Usually, the Axis is able to expand first 5-6 turns, hold their gains against allied counters next 7-12 turns, and then the Axis gain the money edge and the allies slowly realize they’ve lost, next 13-16 turns.

    Are you referring to Global 40 or BM3?

    (Obviously, this forum discussion is for G40…in G40 games, I think longer games often favor the Allies, but in BM3 games, due to the NO advantages, I think longer games favor the Axis).

    I think the dynamic is true for both OBB or BM.

    Let me elaborate on my thinking here:

    Long games tend to result from two dynamics: 1. that the Axis have been soundly checked by the Allies but the Allies can’t crack the Axis defenses or 2. the Axis are expanding towards a money advantage while not necessarily having decisively defeated the Allies.

    Generally in the former scenario any self-aware Axis player will see the writing on the wall and throw in the towel before too long, say turn 10, while in the latter scenario can drag on toward 20 rounds because it takes a while to narrow the money gap and have any Axis money advantage seen on the battlefield.

  • '22 '20 '19 '18 '17 '16 '15 '14 '12

    I seen Japan fall and the game still be in the balance, i.e. Cairo in play as last Axis VC.

  • '20 '19 '18

    @ShadowHAwk:

    @Karl7:

    I seen Japan fall and the game still be in the balance, i.e. Cairo in play as last Axis VC.

    The point was that once the allies are winning no axis player will wait till the end.

    Once japan falls and moscow is still in play, then good luck as axis winning.
    Once allies can contain 1 side the axis either need to have a win soon or just give up.
    The allied victory condition is doable, its not that hard to take the 3 capitals it just takes a long time, once japan is out of the water and germany is losing ground in russia you can play for a few turns but it is inevitable.

    The way to obtain an allied victory (especially on Japan) is by slowly stripping it of IPC’s. If Japan only has it’s own island, it can’t build many defences and a successful invasion will eventually happen. As this will take a long time and you can see it coming from miles away, any Axis player will have conceded long before than.

    For me the imbalance is in the fact that the Axis can do some weird late game moves to achieve a victory, even though the odds are completely against them (e.g. Japan suicides on Hawaii to grab the last VC while the entire economy collapses due to ANZAC and the US liberating the money islands, china resurfacing etc.). So the Axis are able to hold the VCs just that one round and win even though in the next round they would be wiped out and the Allies would get the victory at that point.
    The trouble for me is that the Axis have this option while the Allies can only win by doing the slow grind off grabbing and holding territories.

    So taking all this into account I’ve been wondering if there is a way to counterbalance this by giving the Allies a second option to win and that is an economic victory. I’d have to do the math to see what a viable amount would be, but my feel is that in this way you can give the allies the chance to win by themselves in stead of winning because the axis gave up.
    Condition that gets added to the axis win is that they will have to win by grabbing the VCs and at the same time the allies haven’t won the economic battle

  • '19 '17 '16

    The problem of an economic victory condition is how do you have a meaningful one that isn’t present on the initial setup?

  • '21 '20 '18 '17

    activate it after a stated turn


  • @simon33:

    The problem of an economic victory condition is how do you have a meaningful one that isn’t present on the initial setup?

    Simple solution: Don’t play with people who won’t give up when the ultimate outcome of the game has been determined.  If you are going to need another 3-6 hours of your life to convince them that the position is hopeless, I recommend giving them the victory and finding a better opponent to play with next time.


  • The Triplea java-based game has an option for “Honorable Victory” here either side wins if it has attained a certain amount of VC’s by end of a round. The Default I believe is 14. The games I’ve played against the (so-called) “Hard-AI” have all been won on this rule. The Axis have clearly lost at this point and I don’t have to go the extra hours necessary to achieve the OOB Victory Conditions. I’d suggest this added rule as it doesn’t change any of the other gameplay.

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