Germany Loses the Battle of France. What's next?



  • I had a standard battle against France: 5 infantry, 4 mech, 1 artillery, and 6 tanks (I also took Normandy with 2 infantry and 2 artillery).  I then had some of the worst rolls I’ve ever had in the game, only getting 6 hits in 3 rounds of combat and France knocked off everything I had but 2 tanks, so I retreated.  Later on I had Italy take France just so France couldn’t stack 6 infantry on the next turn.  What can Germany do with such a meager amount of income on the first turn?

    Note: I used the calculator and it turns out I had a 99.3% chance of winning that battle, and the defender had a 0.6% chance of winning.  France still had two artillery, an infantry, two tanks, and a fighter left.

    Edit: I made a mistake with my calculations as one of you pointed out and gave France one tank instead of two in the calculator.  Most of you are right, I should have put more into France and ensured a victory.  Thanks for all your feedback!  It really helps.


  • 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015

    Take it as an interesting challenge exercise 😄
    I would choose to accumulate plenty of land force, in this case infantries, for the next couple of rounds, and let Japan to be the star…


  • 2019 2018 2017 2016

    This battle is on the list of “must wins” from my perspective.  Germany has all the resources it needs to make that battle 100% on the simulator. If you did not take planes to do so, that’s on you.

    That being said, even a 100% battle on the simulator cannot account for every fluctuation of the dice.

    Marsh


  • 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015

    First of all if you brought in 5 inf 4 mech 1 art and 6 arm I hardly believe you are 99,3% or so, that is if you did not bring in planes. My feeling is it is more like 95-96%. I have never understood why people take normandy/s.france on G1 in OOB G40. Much better to do this on G2. The only reason to take S.france G1 is if you have any med planes with Germany that require the factory

    Personnally I bring every single land unit in reach to france. Remember if your odds dip to 96% or so you will loose 4 times out of 100, but not only that it does not include poor results like a win with 1,2 or 3 arm remaining. If you include poor results like this, you might not be more than 85%


  • 2019 2018 2017 2016

    Agree 100%! I can’t think of any realistic Axis plan that requires you to have Southern France on G1 – that’s just being greedy. Those land forces need to be used in France proper.

    Normandy is a different story IF you’re planning Sea Lion, but again my perspective on Sea Lion is that an early Sea Lion is a losing move under most circumstances.

    Marsh



  • @Marshmallow:

    Agree 100%! I can’t think of any realistic Axis plan that requires you to have Southern France on G1 – that’s just being greedy. Those land forces need to be used in France proper.

    Normandy is a different story IF you’re planning Sea Lion, but again my perspective on Sea Lion is that an early Sea Lion is a losing move under most circumstances.

    Marsh

    I used to take all of France on my G1 and then what I do now is take Paris for Germany, give Vichy to Italy and leave Normandy in French hands.


  • 2019 2018 2017

    @xFearing:

    I had a standard battle against France: 5 infantry, 4 mech, 1 artillery, and 6 tanks (I also took Normandy with 2 infantry and 2 artillery).  I then had some of the worst rolls I’ve ever had in the game, only getting 6 hits in 3 rounds of combat and France knocked off everything I had but 2 tanks, so I retreated.  Later on I had Italy take France just so France couldn’t stack 6 infantry on the next turn.  What can Germany do with such a meager amount of income on the first turn?

    Note: I used the calculator and it turns out I had a 99.3% chance of winning that battle, and the defender had a 0.6% chance of winning.  France still had two artillery, an infantry, two tanks, and a fighter left.

    When I put this into the A&A Odds Calculator it returns a 93-94% chance for Germany to win this. And http://dskelly.com/misc/aa/index.php?page=aasim&noborder=1 estimates it at slightly below 93%. So, like others said, that’s just taking too much risk. Add those troops you sent to Normandy to the battle and your chance of losing it will be minimal.
    And besides the chances of winning the battle in the first place, there’s another sound reason for throwing all available land forces at France round 1: by bringing overwhelming odds, you’ll minimize your losses. Even if you had won in France, the losses incurred would likely have been bigger than the benefit of gaining Normandy (if there is such a benefit in the first place - there’s a viable strategy based on leaving Normandy to the French).
    I’m also surprised that, given the large number of French survivors, Italy was able to take France at all. Didn’t the UK send a few fighters to reinforce France?

    Finally, after such a disastrous G1, I would probably congratulate my opponent and propose to start a new game, except maybe if everything else went very well for compensation and consolation.


  • 2019 2018 2017

    Oh, and because everybody including myself forgot so far: welcome to the forums!  😄



  • Well you just got diced hard nothing you can do against it.

    If your odds are 93% and you get totaly destroyed its not your fault.

    It happens, best thing to do is just either restart the game or just reroll the battle as this is just silly outcome.


  • 2018 2017

    Losing the battle for France is a good learning lesson for the German player.  It should teach them that when it comes to critical, game changing battles that they should not go light on attacking forces.  Overwhelming odds are your friend early as German IMO.  It minimizes your losses and all but guarantees you win the battle.

    Sure, you may win a majority of the time by taking a minimum of forces while gobbling up a bunch of other territories as well, but when you don’t win the major battle the minors don’t matter.


  • 2018 2017

    Welcome!

    Diverting the artillery was a misstep, you cannot come up short in this battle.  There is also one tactical bomber that can pretty much only come here.

    Since as the others say, this has to go in your favor, overkill is obligatory.  Luck has a huge roll (pun intended) to play but to counter that I’d suggest overkill in any situation where you can spare it.


  • 2019 2018 2017 2016

    @ShadowHAwk:

    Well you just got diced hard nothing you can do against it.

    If your odds are 93% and you get totaly destroyed its not your fault.

    I disagree. If he could have made the odds better in a “must win battle” and didn’t, it IS his fault.

    Marsh


  • 2016 2015 '10

    The lesson here is….why go into a battle with only 95% when you could have had 99.9%?  What does taking Normandy give that rationalizes that risk?

    If the risk of losing on the first round 5% of the time isn’t a strong enough reason, consider that Germany will almost always lose more units to take France when it goes light because the French troops will get a 2nd or 3rd round to inflict casualties.  The 2 inf 2 art 1 tact that Germany could have brought would inflict an average of 2 casualties on the French during the first round, which means France has 2 less units to shoot back on round 2.  In this case, Germany will lose an average of one more unit if the battle goes only 2 rounds.  If the battle goes to round 3 (likely with the light deployment and rare with the heavy one), this effect cascades even more and costs Germany more units.


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    @Marshmallow:

    but again my perspective on Sea Lion is that an early Sea Lion is a losing move under most circumstances.

    Marsh

    Im glad to see that your perspective has upgraded from “always a losing move” to “a losing move under most circumstances”. 🙂

    I look forward to the day it evolves again to “under SOME circumstances” 🙂


  • 2019 2018 2017 2016

    I’ve always felt that the late Sea Lion (after Moscow was gone and the UK was pumping everything into Egypt and ignoring the UK) was a winner 🙂

    Marsh


  • 2017

    Didn’t this topic get debated before several times…like many stating just congratulate your opponent on “winning” the game.

    Than re-cock and switch sides. Watch with angst while your opponent brings in overkill to include the tac. bomber. When the dice are rolled, 1st round the AAA misses, but the attackers don’t! Germany wins with 2 infantry standing tall on Paris!

    You’re feeling upset about this point in the beginning of the 2nd game; especially if it’s a table top game and your preference is Axis  😄



  • @Gargantua:

    @Marshmallow:

    but again my perspective on Sea Lion is that an early Sea Lion is a losing move under most circumstances.

    Marsh

    Im glad to see that your perspective has upgraded from �always a losing move� to �a losing move under most circumstances�. 🙂

    I look forward to the day it evolves again to �under SOME circumstances� 🙂

    :roll: :evil: 😄

    The game in Seattle was very instructive.


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