Very good points but I don’t understand why you’re sending 6 planes to 109 and four to 111. 109 can manage four scrambling fighters. You only need five planes to make it a battle in your favor. If UK scrambles, it’s Sea Lion time. 111 needs the five planes though to be safe. I also fail to see how the TUV is in UK’s favor:
Sea Zone 109:
1 submarine, 2 fighters, 2 tactical bombers, 1 strategic bomber vs. 1 destroyer and 4 fighters:
CALC: three hits average both sides.
1 fighter, 1 tactical bomber, 1 strategic bomber vs 2 fighters
CALC: 2-1 hits average
Surviving: 1 German strategic bomber plus another plane. Even if the Germans lost all but one plane, a British destroyer and transport went down in exchange for a sub, making up for the slightly higher value of tactical bombers.
–This is three planes for four=battle in Germany’s favor. Of course the Allies could get lucky, but so could Germany.
Sea Zone 111:
1 battleship, 2 fighters, 2 tactical bombers, 1 strategic bomber vs. 1 destroyer, 1 cruiser, 1 battleship, 1 fighter
CALC: 3-2 hits average
1 battleship (damaged), 2 fighters, 1 tactical bomber, 1 strategic bomber vs. 1 battleship and 1 fighter
CALC: 2 hits both sides (giving UK the luck)
Survivng: 1 German strategic bomber, tactical bomber, and fighter.
–This is 1 battleship, 1 fighter, 1 tactical bomber for 1 battleship, 1 fighter, 1 cruiser, 1 and destroyer.
Therefore, the odds do not help the UK with TUV. I don’t give two infantry for players who make moves hoping for luck.
As for the risk with the Canadian and Gibraltar battles, there is an even bigger risk in the typical G1 attack in which we have only one submarine attacking the Canadians. Of course, the outcome of these battles will determine if Sea Lion is an option or not. The 92 consolidation is a problem for Germany, but it effectively leaves Italy free to do heavy damage. Stopping Taranto is a big deal.
I’m still unconvinced. Someone save me before I lose the next game trying to pull this off.