Perhaps going ANZAC first is situational (duh, as if all things G40 aren’t). Example, you setup for a traditional J2 attack, but you see that the US response is to build almost completely on the Atlantic side with transports ect…for a landing on Normandy. Yes, those ships can come over to the Pacific, but it’s 1 extra turn away to be in attack position.
So on turn 2, you setup for a “traditional” J3 with a fleet at FIC w/naval base (which hopefully causes India to turtle) and a substantial fleet at Caroline’s Island with transports to not only “take islands,” but also to demonstrate to the US that they might not want to stack at Hawaii just yet since they’re determined to stick a landing.
You can even deploy Psychological Operations and tell your opponent at the start of Japan’s turn 2 that you decided not to declare war because Germany needs breathing room and that you’ll probably have to wait till J3. Perhaps this gets your opponent studying more on buying transports as opposed to thinking about Japan’s naval positioning that looks like a J3, but not quite the same.
Then J3 you spring into action and hopefully catch ANZAC off guard; but very likely you’ll have to get into position on J4 with transports loaded in the sea off the coast of Queensland (non-combat movements) for a J4 due to a blocker(s) somewhere. At which point it will be a battle similar to a Sea Lion where the odds are like 88-92% (very costly but doable). BUT, if the Allies’ positioning won’t permit ANZAC, Japan can still DO a more normal J3.
It’s the hardest Victory City to get for me, but I think it possible it offers tremendous reward. How often would I go for, probably not many times.