The consensus is that we’re wrong.
I’m not whining about the dice. It works both ways.
I remember rolling like 18 tanks @3 by hand (Germany stack just inside Russia) and getting like 3 or 4 hits in a table top game 1st roll (don’t remember the exact amount but it was pathetically below average). My stack was defending. I messed up where I placed it. It was against a guy with a screen name of Jonathan Rost (playing the Global 1942 setup).
I lost that game due partly due to that ridiculous outcome (probably would have lost it anyways, Jonathan is really good). Anyways, I understand that outliers occur. HOWEVER, they occur way too often it seems in triplea. However, I’m often I’m a benefactor.
So, it’s good to keep in mind that outlier outcomes, like 4 infantry rolling 4 defense hits 1st round while a stack of planes throws a miss, does happen; but it happens for both sides.
I do believe that AAA hit more than 1/6 overall against bombing runs.