hard to find someone who lets me be allies. but of course, it should be tested. my hypothesis is that there stands a better than even chance that if the USA cant get them by game turn 3, the axis will win the economic victory.
(EDIT: 3/27/2021 - for my future self and any others interested. How this was arrived at statistically is as follows: If USA spends 30 IPC per turn in the first three turns, the most statistically plausible event is one breakthrough each turn. This means that by the time you finish rolling tech on turn three, there is a 50% chance that USA will have HB. By game turn four, it is more likely than not that USA will have HB (67%).
The axis will benefit from two points if the allies decide to pursue this:
the USA will be almost completely inert for the first three turns while in pursuit of HB tech with commensurately less pressure being placed on either Japan and especially Germany.
an immaculate axis player should be able to adjust his strategy slightly to maximize his early expansion to counter the HB strategy. The goal should absolutely be a “lunge” for 84 IPC as quickly and cleanly as possible. Given that USA will be low or out of ground and naval assets to recapture Japanese expansion, Japan will have a less difficult time capturing required territories adjacent to the RUS capital and Africa. (i.e. Russian recaptures don’t matter with regards to the economic victory conditions, only USA recaptures matter)
I will concede that if USA gets this tech on turn one or two, it is highly likely an allies win. However, this is statistically unlikely (33%). The interesting part of this strategy to me is wondering who would win more often if the breakthrough was secured on turn three (50% chance of HB) and/or turn four (67% chance of HB).
In summation, at the time of this writing, I don’t see a broken game through this strategy based on the above statistics. I don’t feel this approaches Spanish Harlem which has forum threads dedicated to it and really does break Classic, which is why I advocate making neutrals off limits like all the rest of the AnA games (except global).
I will repost here if I ever change my mind or thoroughly test this out in live games.