I’m sure your correct.
I’m just musing at this point with not a lot to back it up.
The primary issue is does it benefit the Allies or hurt them to engage in a scrap with Japan early around Hawaii. I honestly don’t know. My guess is that it benefits the Axis. But it’s just a guess.
As I said, I haven’t tried a KJF test yet. First one starts today (no German Sea Lion). I’m not optimistic for the result for the Allies. But I’m going to give it a shot, and with no Sea Lion threat that would seem to be the best of possible scenarios for the Allies. If they can’t change the game by busting on Japan without the threat of Sea Lion, it’s doubtful they can do it with Sea Lion.
But your secondary point is also probably correct, Japan pushing west is way pushing their logistical limits (although its only a 3 turn move to get to Stalingrad with fast movers from China’s coast. Just sayin’).
The reason I push on West with Japan after India is because the Hawaii/ANZAC options look so grim and long term.
Meanwhile, if the Army that was in India is falling back, if I just turn my back on them, they can be a formidable aid to Russia. Those ME transports come in handy for a speedy evacuation.
(Sorry, a bit of background info- the end games to my previous tests usually end up with Russia falling back to Stalingrad/Caucusus and the British in ME trying to lend support to prevent the final Russian collapse; while the US tries to make a difference in Western Europe. Potentially, with enough UK support from ME, the Russians can lose Moscow , but keep Stalingrad.
With the Indian Army free to play the ‘saving’ cavalry, things could get dicey indeed for the Germans. Theoretically, the UK/Soviet Armies could retake Russia. Hence the need for my Japanese Army in India continuing to apply pressure. In fact, in my last game, the UK ME force got so fat that they, pushed the Japanese back, retook India, all the while trying to save Russia at the same time [a poor choice as they should have just helped Russia]. It was a wild game).
In that same game, I had a good handful of Japanese in Western China, trying to set up an ambush for the retreating Russians from Siberia.(I mean if Chia is going to protest the Burma road, why not exploit their absence in North-Western China?) I failed in that, but it allowed me enough guys to harass the crap out of Russia with the Japanese and eventually take Stalingrad- temporarily - like 2 turns. THAT was enough to bring about the final crumble of the Soviets. After that it was just about chasing a squirming prey.
And squirm they did. The US went all in in the Pacific , which halted all Japanese production towards anything but an ever increasing Japanese Navy to counter the US. And also allowed the UK successes in India and Russia previously mentioned. wild game indeed.