Switch,
I’m not the best player when it comes to bids, but lets look at the following assumptions you make for a pure PAsia bid or 3 arm, 2 inf. Its a bit long, but explains why I think a pure Power Asia bid takes too long to play out.
=====================================================
On R1, Russia builds the Yakut Stack (no Manchuria surprise), takes out the German Baltic fleet, and perhaps Norway as well. Russia should have plenty of forces to hold Karelia, lets say building 4 inf in Moscow.
On UK1, the British rebuild their Navy, with the US landing its fighters on US1 there…the North sea is secure.
On J1, Japan does as you say, taking out China, Sinking, with Manchuria reinforced to take Yakut next turn.
On US1, the USA can probably get a couple infantry to Norway, and build infantry and transports on the east coast.
On round 2, Russia leaves 1 inf in Yakut, retreating the Yakut stack to Novo. With 10 inf, tank, and two fighters, I doubt the Japanese force in Singking, China of a maximum of 4 arm, 2 inf, and fighters is going to be enough to take Novo. Japan could take Kazak, but this sets up a deadzone for Russia. Again Russia can build 2-4 inf in Karelia and 4 inf in Moscow. Karelia should still be safe (thanks to UK fighters).
J2, Japan takes Yakut but cannot really take Novo yet. IF japan does, there won’t be many forces left because the bulk of the japanese infantry are in Yakut.
UK2, reinforcements arrive in Karelia.
US2, 1st of the US reinforcements arrives in Norway.
On R3, Russia can again build in both Karelia and Moscow. Germany should still not be able to take Karelia.
On UK3, if the UK troops that landed in Karelia can either stay or move to Moscow. This means the UK has reinforced Moscow before Japan can reach Moscow with significant forces.
On J3, Japan can now take and hold Novo with significant forces.
On US3, the first of the US reinforcements arrive in Karelia.
=================================
So by the end of three rounds, the UK can have troops in Moscow (US troops are in Karelia which should be enough to hold off the Germans) while Japan has just reached Novo. These troops, along with the Russian forces should be enough to hold both Karelia and Moscow. The Allies win the race to Moscow.