Defending against a 21+ bid Power Europe

That’s basicly my point, if you are afraid of a PE 21 figure out how to win with bid of 20.

I didn’t think you played clubs any more, but I saw some comments on club play so I thought I would ask. :)

No it not that I think that PE 23 is too strong its that it has a statistical variance which assures success a given % of the time.  However, I wouldn’t be at all woried to play against it b/c I know I have a certain % occurance of winning, but I also know that PE at 23 will almost always lose.  If I know then that I will always win if I grant any bid under a certain amount there is no reason to go below it, and if I know there is only one way to really be beaten then obviously I take that knowing that it is essentially a defeatist position as well.

Drawing on DF’s “Bid 20” idea…

Bid a “balanced 18”, 9 German, 9 Japan.

Before you dismiss it, consider the logic using some recent Forum games in support…
2 INF in Manchuria basically blocks the Russian invasion of Manch in R1.
1 INF in Kwang shifts the odds for the Kwangtung Maneuver against the UK.
Those 9 IPC’s block most of the “strong Asia” moves that the Allies can make in Turn 1, and keep Russia from being UP in IPC’s for R2 builds and forward.
BTW:  This aspect is what I am testing in my current game with DF

Now, the other 9 for Germany:
2 INF to Libya and 1 INF to Ukraine (maybe Eastern, depending on your personal view)

2 INF in Libya allows Germany to take FWA, FEA and Egypt in G1 without using their TRN and BB. 
Instead, the TRN and BB attack Syria…  Average is sub sunk, and 68% chance that Germany takes Syria (and another 6% that UK has no forces left there… call it a 1 in 4 that Syria no longer holds UK forces).  That puts UK down 5 IPC’s for UK2 build…  Combine the UK fleet destruction that I advocate, and UK needs IPC’s to rebuild that it is rapidly losing…  And the India forces can either hold in India (to be destroyed) attack the reinforced Kwangtung, or move on Egypt without the extra INF from Syria…

The extra INF in Ukraine simply makes the Russia strafe a bit more costly, but otherwise maintains the “status quo” in Europe of EE facing Karelia in a nasty little stand-off.

UK weakened economically, with no ability to counter for 2 turns.
Russia with massed Japan forces on the continent taking Russia’s eastern IPC’s away (lose 4 on J1, more than countering the taking of Ukraine)
More UK lost income with Japan moving on India, Australia and New Zealand.
German forces in both Africa and the Middle East to attack on G2 into Persia and strike toward South Africa (leaving UK only 3 IPC’s in Africa come UK2)

It would take a VERY skilled player to counter this 18 IPC “Balanced Bid”.
It makes the game interesteing for everyone, forces the Allies to play EXTREMELY well to counter, and gives the Axis a couple of rounds of parity with the Allies… a couple of rounds to either tip the scales in their favor, or to make mistakes and lose.

And isn’t that the point of a bid?  To make the game balanced?

Before you dismiss it, consider the logic using some recent Forum games in support…
2 INF in Manchuria basically blocks the Russian invasion of Manch in R1.
1 INF in Kwang shifts the odds for the Kwangtung Maneuver against the UK.
Those 9 IPC’s block most of the “strong Asia” moves that the Allies can make in Turn 1, and keep Russia from being UP in IPC’s for R2 builds and forward.
BTW:  This aspect is what I am testing in my current game with DF

No this will not work b/c it doesn’t do enough for Germany.  If you put the 3inf in Europe then that will pose no problem to the Russians.  If you put it in Africa that will pose no problem for the Brits.  The Allies will mop up in Africa, contain in Europe and retreat in Asia until the get strong enough and will push back.  Look at my game against DM my bid had 2inf in both Europe and Asia as well as 4inf in Africa but I think you will see that even with the basic bid allignment plus some DM as Russia will not be easily rolled back in Asia or Europe.

Now, the other 9 for Germany:
2 INF to Libya and 1 INF to Ukraine (maybe Eastern, depending on your personal view)

And I guarantee that anything you put into AES with Germany gets attacked by the Brits.  one turn and done big deal.  The inf in Europe is irrelevent.

2 INF in Libya allows Germany to take FWA, FEA and Egypt in G1 without using their TRN and BB. 
Instead, the TRN and BB attack Syria…  Average is sub sunk, and 68% chance that Germany takes Syria (and another 6% that UK has no forces left there… call it a 1 in 4 that Syria no longer holds UK forces).  That puts UK down 5 IPC’s for UK2 build…  Combine the UK fleet destruction that I advocate, and UK needs IPC’s to rebuild that it is rapidly losing…

Here’s what I have in this scenario…Germany takes AES with 2inf arm(which can still be attacked from India 2inf ftr f/India bmb f/Uk).  Odds are the Uk clears w/o loss of air or takes w/1inf.  Secondly, you assume that it is a given you can destroy the Uk fleet easily but consider a move I used a while back against DM in a game where R1 was 6inf 2arm v Ukr(3inf 2arm ftr), 2ftrs vBalSz(sub trn), and sub v SpainSz(sub).  I pushed the sub in Spain to the CAtl where its only option was to attack the Lab trn, the ftrs destroyed the Baltic fleet with no loss and the Kar trn was able to reinforce the UkSz fleet so it had a bb 2trn and Ukr was taken w/2arm.  This means that to destroy the UkSz fleet you must send all 5 air units against the 3boats unless you will take 2 or more hits which is excessive.  Further you will have to ignore the WMedSz fleet in order to attack Syria and probably not use any air units which means it is 2inf v 1inf which is an extremely risky move.  Even if this succeeds the Brits can pull 2inf f/India to SAfr so that if you attack you will lose 2inf and take yourself down to just 3inf arm for the entire continent.  One boatload from the Uk and the battle here is over.

The extra INF in Ukraine simply makes the Russia strafe a bit more costly, but otherwise maintains the “status quo” in Europe of EE facing Karelia in a nasty little stand-off.

All it means is I send 1 more inf on R1 to account for this.  You’re trading 1inf for 1inf which doesn’t seem to be the best use.

UK weakened economically, with no ability to counter for 2 turns.

Weakened?  No counter?  Hardly.  As I said the Uk can either attack AES or play defensive either way b/c you didn’t bid enough into Africa your destruction of this force will cost you more than it will the UK, and once they can land in the West of the continent its pretty much over.  At worst the Uks production will drop no lower than 18-21 which is not enough to ride them off.  In fact I’ve found the Uk really can’t be weakened even when they have 12ipcs(Canada + the British Isles) they will produce 4inf a turn which is not enough on its own to do anything but great to use as an ancillary power until they get some money back.

Russia with massed Japan forces on the continent taking Russia’s eastern IPC’s away (lose 4 on J1, more than countering the taking of Ukraine)

Sure if you assume Russia doesn’t do anything.  I bid 2inf into Manchuria and DM didn’t even blink on R1 did you see that.  Russia is far more powerful than you give them credit.

More UK lost income with Japan moving on India, Australia and New Zealand.

And turn 2 will be the low point b/c Japan and Germany can reach their zenith of ipcs taken from Britain.  However, on turn 3 Britain should recover by gaining the WAfrican ipcs which makes up for India or Aust.  Even w/o AES, Syria, IEA and Kenya, BCongo Britian should be at 21 and each turn they will increase as they take AES and Africa f/Germany.

It would take a VERY skilled player to counter this 18 IPC “Balanced Bid”.

Yeah me :wink:  Or Darth Maximus :mrgreen:

Well AS…

All I can do to counter your arguments about the “difficulty” in destroying the UK fleet is this…

Go look at the current game I have with Dezrtfish. 
After G1:
USSR SUB and TRN sunk
UK BB and TRN sunk
ECan TRN sunk
Gibraltar BB sunk
Eastern Med SUB sunk

Germany still has 4 of 5 FIGS, and their bomber.
UK has 1 TRN on the board, in India.  If they counter Egypt for 2 IPC’s, they lose India for 3, then Persia.  If they stay in India, they lose Africa, and India the following turn.

Reinforcements possible in Africa by the Allies in the remainder of T1 and all of T2 consist of 2 INF from the US, and the UK India forces… unless they want to send AF down there…

NCS, I think you’ll find much of Asia irrelevant to the Allies.  Barring KJF, Japan always takes Ind, Sfe, Yak, Sin and Chi, it makes little difference if they get these in rd 2 or 3, But what is important is that the Russian troops don’t get killed.  Retreat, retreat, retreat…then whn J tries to move to Novo you attack with at least 7-10 inf, 5-7 arm, 2 ftrs.  You can do 2 rds of strafe and severly hurt Japan.Â

Remember our game, granted there was no bid to Asia, but the principal is still the same.
Russia (and the Allies) do not need to engage the Japanese till they approach Novo, which won’t be till rd 3.
Which means Russia needs to take on Germany for the first 3-4 rds then can start to turn its attention to Japan because UK and US troops will now be arriving in Kar.

Once Germany is boxed in in Europe, Russia can hold off Japan indefinitely.

UK can easily trade Ind for kicking out Ger in Egy (and Afr), and if you can do it with out any extra shipments Germany is going to be trouble.

I just did my turn against AS, and I easily traded my 3 inf, 1 ftr, 1 bom for his 4 inf, 1 arm in egy, and he placed 4 inf there to start.  2 extra inf in Lib, will not be enough to scare the Allies.

J will get the added boost of Ind, but it still takes newly purchased units 2-3 turns to hit the front.  I’m betting I can hold down Ger enough, before these troops really have an effect.

All I can do to counter your arguments about the “difficulty” in destroying the UK fleet is this…

Go look at the current game I have with Dezrtfish. 
After G1:
USSR SUB and TRN sunk
UK BB and TRN sunk
ECan TRN sunk
Gibraltar BB sunk
Eastern Med SUB sunk

And I guess what I am telling you is that I would not have played r1 like he did. :wink:

I would’ve been far more proactive with the Russians in order to make it as hard as possible for Germany to destroy the fleet so as to spread them out and force them into either or decisions.  Either they lose their fleet or air or they don’t touch the WMed BB.  Either they ignore the UkSz or they risk heavy losses.

NCS, I think you’ll find much of Asia irrelevant to the Allies.  Barring KJF, Japan always takes Ind, Sfe, Yak, Sin and Chi, it makes little difference if they get these in rd 2 or 3,

Yes absolutely.

I just did my turn against AS, and I easily traded my 3 inf, 1 ftr, 1 bom for his 4 inf, 1 arm in egy, and he placed 4 inf there to start.  2 extra inf in Lib, will not be enough to scare the Allies.

I would argue however that this was a bad move b/c there is a significant risk that you lose all units and leave Germany with 1 or 2.  Ultimately it comes down to the first round attacking dice by the UK, if they get two hits then it might pan out but 1/3 of the time they won’t.  And I would dare say that every time you don’t get two hits you will probably lose whereas even in the times that you do you aren’t guaranteed of a win.  Its essentially a crap shoot with a low payout.  But your point is sound if this move is iffy with 5units in AES then with only 4 it should be an open invitation to attack.

I would argue however that this was a bad move b/c there is a significant risk that you lose all units and leave Germany with 1 or 2.  Ultimately it comes down to the first round attacking dice by the UK, if they get two hits then it might pan out but 1/3 of the time they won’t.  And I would dare say that every time you don’t get two hits you will probably lose whereas even in the times that you do you aren’t guaranteed of a win.

True, about the win part.  But the the battle was 10 pts vs. 10pts, the defender falls into the same miss % at 33% of the time.  I think with 5 units or less you have to hit Egy, assuming you can bring in all 10 pts worth.

The worst case Allies (rd 1 battle) is a miss and defender hit, and that only happens 22% of the time, because even though I may miss 33% of the time that doesn’t guarantee the defender will hit.  So in reality, it doesn’t pan out only 1/4 of the time or about 25%.

Again, looking at it from the Allies perspective, I’ll take the shot at Removing Germany from Afr on UK 1 esp if I’ll be successful 75% of the time.

But your point is sound if this move is iffy with 5units in AES then with only 4 it should be an open invitation to attack.

Yeah, this was the really important point I was getting at.  Further it is likely G will lose 1 unit on the attack anyway, so you could be looking at only 3 units in Egy to start UK 1.

True, about the win part.  But the the battle was 10 pts vs. 10pts, the defender falls into the same miss % at 33% of the time.  I think with 5 units or less you have to hit Egy, assuming you can bring in all 10 pts worth.

But even a 1 to 1 exchange favors Germany b/c the the UK needs that far more than Germany does. and once the battle begins the UK cannot retreat.  More importantly however is the fact that there is a simplier way which does not carry this kind of risk.

The worst case Allies (rd 1 battle) is a miss and defender hit, and that only happens 22% of the time, because even though I may miss 33% of the time that doesn’t guarantee the defender will hit.  So in reality, it doesn’t pan out only 1/4 of the time or about 25%.

Again, looking at it from the Allies perspective, I’ll take the shot at Removing Germany from Afr on UK 1 esp if I’ll be successful 75% of the time.

But like I said you won’t be successful 75% of the time only 66%, and that doesn’t subtract that even doing so doesn’t guarantee you a win.  Even if you can win 4/5 of the 1/3 left this will drop the overall down to below 60% and probably even 55%.  And when you take into account that I believe I can win 80% of my games against this bid I think its a lot of flash and no substance.  The only way to do this was to hit the fleet too which risks almost all of your airforce and is therefore not a good move.

Yeah, this was the really important point I was getting at.  Further it is likely G will lose 1 unit on the attack anyway, so you could be looking at only 3 units in Egy to start UK 1.

I would add that one reason why I thought your move was not wise was b/c it left Yak open to attack which isn’t a bad idea.  IMO the only way to defend against a bid of 2unit Asian bid is to either give up Yakut, or to get 8units there.  I will ignore China if it comes to that, or even better is to have bid an armor into Kwan and move 1inf somewhere else.  Once you made your Russian move you were more or less committed to Yakut and therefore not placing your ftr there was an invitation to attack.

I would add that one reason why I thought your move was not wise was b/c it left Yak open to attack which isn’t a bad idea.  IMO the only way to defend against a bid of 2unit Asian bid is to either give up Yakut, or to get 8units there.  I will ignore China if it comes to that, or even better is to have bid an armor into Kwan and move 1inf somewhere else.  Once you made your Russian move you were more or less committed to Yakut and therefore not placing your ftr there was an invitation to attack.

Yeah, my intention was to land the UK ftr there.  I thought you’d do Syr and possibly leave the w med bb.  Which ment I would have reinforced Yak with the UK ftr.

I’m actually glad you did that move (not because of the outcome or anything like that), because I don’t see that a lot and it is nice to know that I better take into account that move in the future and that good players may indeed bypass Chi.

I guess, That’s why you play the game.  :-D