XDAP WB Final: JDOW+ME1945 Axis vs nerqueen+Elrood Allies+35

  • '15 '14

    “If 110 goes well for you”

    I meant 112

  • 2024 '22 '19 '17 '15

    I can answer that.

    Yes. Sz112 as well as Hopei went not so good. That made the attack on Tokyo more important.
    That US AC with the 2 UK Figs in SZ92… these UK figs would have joined the follow up attack on Tokyo.
    Believe you me, that Nerquen and I discussed that Sz92 AC at length… but Japan was too important… and so we gave up on Egypt. Although you got a but lucky there too, with first the SBR and then the oddsy attack. We didnt think Egypt would fall THAT fast. But Tokyo compensated for that well enough.
    Plan was: US first, then UK, then Anz, then Russia would take it… it was like ~75% chance altogether to our estimates.

    But alas… US turn went well above average and made it even lest costly for allies.

  • '15 '14

    Was it really 75% total at Tokyo?

    I guess US had 37% but the most likely outcome (av. defenders if won) was enough to keep the odds the the follow up very low. I estimated 50-55% total. But as the online calculator does not support AA, the battle was tough to simulate:

    http://calc.axisandallies.org/

    Anyway, we should have protected Tokyo better and if those UK increased the chances on Tokyo it would have been the right move.

    Would have been interesting to see if Tokyo falls with all US planes down almost all fighters dead. In this case Germans would have had significant odds on Moscow I guess.

    Anyway, too many ifs.

  • 2024 '22 '19 '17 '15

    Yeah. we kinda bet on an eventual very lucky battle…. We firmly believe that Allies need this, and must look for such openings even at questionable odds. Backing away and waiting for that 90% odds battle is just not realistic against formidable Axis players. At least that is our impression of that game.

  • 2024 '22 '19 '17 '15

    My only regret here is that Tension which arose due to our respective moving schedules.

    please be assured that we never wanted to piss you off or so.


  • Thanks for a great game guys! It was very intense here and in a way I am glad it is over. I have to admit we got lucky in two major battles of the game (Tokyo and Cairo) and it helped a lot… UK planes surviving Cairo attack could join the Tokyo battle for 2nd wave. Would be a very open game if all US and UK planes died in Tokyo and instead Japan had its expected Cairo survivors around.

    I believe Elrood wanted to say 65% on Tokyo, not 75%. According to this handy BC http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/graph.php?cmd=barchart&rules=1940&battleType=land&attInfantry=9&attMechanizedInfantry=2&attArtillery=1&attFighter=18&attTacticalBomber=1&attBomber=14&defAAGun=11&defInfantry=23&defFighter=10&defTacticalBomber=3 it was 68.7% that Japan survives with at most 10 fighters. Those then should have been defeatable with UK 2nd and ANZ 3rd waves. If UK had 2 fighters less for 2nd wave we would realistically need at most 8 Jap fighters to survive the 1st wave… so those 2 UK fighters taken out from Egypt increased our Tokyo odds by ~ 8% which we thought was worth it, as we agree with you that if Tokyo survived those T10 attacks it would be immediate game over for Allies.

    @JDOW:

    Was it really 75% total at Tokyo?

    I guess US had 37% but the most likely outcome (av. defenders if won) was enough to keep the odds the the follow up very low. I estimated 50-55% total. But as the online calculator does not support AA, the battle was tough to simulate:

    http://calc.axisandallies.org/

    Anyway, we should have protected Tokyo better and if those UK increased the chances on Tokyo it would have been the right move.

    Would have been interesting to see if Tokyo falls with all US planes down almost all fighters dead. In this case Germans would have had significant odds on Moscow I guess.

    Anyway, too many ifs.

  • 2024 '22 '19 '17 '15

    I think you mean we were lucky at calcutta… where our uk planes survived  :mrgreen:


  • correct, Cairo = Calcutta, in my above post… it was too late when I was writing that

  • '15 '14

    Thanks nerqueen.

    http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html

    I, I just found this via the link you provided. This looks good!

  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    Apologies for late response.  I don’t spend enough time at A&A.org these days!

    It appears we have a CLEAR champion of the Tournament (after 2+ years LOL).

    There is the matter of a pit fight, but I don’t know that anyone will step forward?

    Team Garl was defeated by the Spanish Armada; and the Spanish armada was defeated by… ?  and in theory JDOW has a legitimate claim to reclaim their honor.

    I’d like to get this wrapped up;  So lets proceed.

    Nerqueen, you have the strongest vested interest in all of this; and have been paying the most attention as the champion LOL.  I beseech you sir.  Review the pit teams, and either use a lottery, or CHOOSE who you wish to face in the final battle.

    We can skip 6 months of pit battling that way, and get right down to the Dirty!

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