Critique this Germany Opening Turn: Bye,Bye Boatie

I’m only stating observational psychology.  It reflects some actions that even I’ve taken.  There is motive behind every purchase in the game.

As stated before, I play for overwhelming dominance.  The odds shown by NCS clearly show tech rolling too early to be a poor purchase decision.

Rolling is something my old friends and I generally avoid until we go up a capitol.  Most of my old group will even hold off until our country also has 2 or more bmrs, so we can still selectively attack while we patiently spend for the tech that solidifies our dominant position in the game.

It telegraphs the message to my opponent(s) that the game is so much in my favor that I can afford to waste tons of spending on the unknown, and they can chance it too, but only at the risk of their remaining capitols.

Tech rolling is a very in thing to do when you got what amounts to EV (on top of an enemy capitol), but the opposition will not yield the game.

Being somewhat anti-EV myself, I will accept a 4 tech differential as a term of victory.

Of course HB as a single tech should be treated like it is worth 4 techs.

IT is treated as 2 techs.

I look at tech in 2 ways…

First, it is a matter of luck not strategy.  being beaten by someone using Tech is not a “real” win (and I would have said the same thing if my HB’s in the Revised game I just finished with Trihero had given me Russia… he outplayed me, the HB was a desperation gambit that failed).

Second…
The BEST Tech possibility for the Allies fo the game would be Russia with IT.  So Russia risks it all and miraculously hits IT (odds are something like 11% of that happening with 20 IPC’s spent).  So now Russia gets to buy INF at 2 instead of 3.  War won, right?  Not quite.

Losing that R1 build (1 INF instead of 8 ) means that Germany takes Karelia on G1 as well as taking out the UK fleet.  Russia gets to build 12 INF in R2 thanks to IT.  But Germany is now sending 4 INF and 4 ARM toward Karelia, as well as moving every other force they have that can reach in that direction, plus a build in Karelia on G2.

In R3, Russia is only building 9 INF due to loss of Karelia and SFE.  But in G3, Germany can hit Russia with 5 figs, 1 bomber, around 10 ARM and a handful of INF.  This against about 20 Russia INF.

Round 1:
Germany loses 1 FIG to AA
Germany kills 8 INF
Russia kills 10 units (say 5 INF and 5 ARM)

Round 2: 
Germany kills 6 units
Russia kills 3 (more ARM)

Round 4:
Germany kills 3
Russia kills 1 (1 more ARM)

Round 5:
Germany kills 2
Russia MIGHT kill 1 FIG

Round 6:
Last Russian INF dies.  Germany occupies with 1 ARM, sends FIGS and Bomber home to trash UK fleet next round.

Game over.

Perfect tech, perfect time (start of game), and it actually makes things WORSE for the nation getting the tech that spent the money to get it.

And remember that that Tech roll could just as easily have been super subs as IT, or NOTHING!

No.  Tech is a luck factor.  Anyone relying on tech to win a game is doomed to MOST of the time lose for lack of success on tech.

Let me fight without tech and kick the sh*t out of my opponent, or lose to an opponent who out played me.

NCS, I am sure most of the veterans will agree with you that tech has little meaning when you don’t have the income to make the best use of it.

The very effort to attain a specific tech can risk your defeat, if you do it too early.

NCS, you give a good example of the rare case where Rus gets IT for $20 on the 1st turn.

But the best techs should be used for offense instead of defense.

Now given the loss of 7 inf build for the IT, you assume that Rus will still foolishly stack Kar.  The wise thing to do is to picket Kar (1 inf) and defend Cauc (protects UK income).  Send the arm and maybe some inf to challenge Jpn for the extra income that will make IT worthwhile.  Pulling the rest of the inf back to Rus buys time for UK to send in ftrs and Rus to build the inf needed to stall out the Ger offensive.

@Linkon:

NCS, you give a good example of the rare case where Rus gets IT for $20 on the 1st turn.

But the best techs should be used for offense instead of defense.

Now given the loss of 7 inf build for the IT, you assume that Rus will still foolishly stack Kar.  The wise thing to do is to picket Kar (1 inf) and defend Cauc (protects UK income).  Send the arm and maybe some inf to challenge Jpn for the extra income that will make IT worthwhile.  Pulling the rest of the inf back to Rus buys time for UK to send in ftrs and Rus to build the inf needed to stall out the Ger offensive.

Given that scenario, I can still hit Russia itself with an equivalent force to what I posted above, plus the forcs that otherwise would ahve died taking Karelia on R1 in the first place.

Either way, the loss of 7 INF divisions as Russia on R1 is the death of Russia, even with IT.  Germany simply goes full-bore on Russia before the IT benefit kicks in, taking away income first, then all of it when Russia falls.

Russia will build with 24+ IPC’s on R2, but on R3 they will be building only at 19 after the loss of Karelia and SFE.  Hell they might be down to 17 if Japan was able to take Yakut, or even 14 if Germany also amphibed and took Caucuses.  Back to 7 INF build in R3, even WITH IT.

Russia still falls in short order without those R_1_ forces

Just another example of stack management along the Ger-EE-Kar-Rus line.  
Break the opposing stack while preserving the fighting cohesiveness of your own.  
Don’t allow the bulk of your forces to risk of annihilation where the opponent will still have a meaningful ground force.  The only exception is for the last stand on your capitol.

This risk should be apparent when Ger has an even amount of combat factors vs your stack.  
This is because Ger loses inf rolling 1 while Rus loses inf rolling 2.

Assume RR. Â

Ger starts w/                             vs.   Rus.  Kar
Units      Combat dice factor. (CDF)     units.    CDF
11 inf            11                     3+5+4=12        24
7 arm            21                                  3          6
5 ftr              12 (1 lost to AA)              2          8 (+5 for AA)
Bmr                4                                 AA         1

Total              48                                            44

1st round loss
1 ftr from AA + 6 inf                        8 inf
                 -3  -6                          -16 -6 (AA roll only once)
Remaining CDF:  39                                          22
1st round loss
3 inf                                              4 inf 2 arm
                  -3                               -12
Remaining CDF:  36                                          10
Ger wins the next dice set w/~7 arm.

This loss is excessive for Rus.  
Don’t put the high value Rus units at such risk.  
Pull it back and integrate them into a bigger, tougher defensive stack.
Retreat will also buy time for UK to send over support ftrs.
The extra time will be needed for UK & US to develop a counter strat.  
Fleetwise KGF or IC-based KJF.

Ger Combat factors                      Rus CDF
w/o Ger AF:    32                                            38

Ger can win the battle with just the addition of 2-3 ftrs.
Such an evenly matched battle can be costly.
Additions of incrementally greater firepower (ftrs, bmr) will enable a greater margin of victory.

As Rus w/IT, the retreat from Kar is not immediately fatal.  Cauc can still be heavily stacked for G1. 
I would even move the AA from Kar to defend Cauc. 
Ger bombs Kar, you keep the land, move the AA back in and build everything there on R2.
Ger takes Kar, UK and US both get a free SBR on Ger.  Ger will need to spend $5 for an AA gun purch to prevent follow-up freebie SBRs.

The defense at Cauc would present a similar amount of strength, but not face the F/N part of the Ger forces, 3 inf from EE, 2 arm from Ger, or arm from SE.  (-6 inf, -4 arm, net 18 CDF)
The effort to amphib this attack will also make it hard for Ger to sink the entire UK fleet.  It could even risk a significant lost of Ger AF (amphib attacks are fought to the death).

IMO the German Med fleet is one of the most overrated pieces on the board b/c in reality Germany cannot afford to send any troops from Europe anyway.  The game is won or lost in Europe and Africa is merely a sidebar so to that end no great lengths should be taken to protect the German BB.  A few exceptions are to send it to the WMed to threaten the Uk1 naval build so as to make them not build or waste a ftr to destroy a bb.  However this assumes you have enough air to be able to attack all other units of the Royal Navy which is iffy at best.  Another reason to spare the bb is by going to Syria on G1 along with a take of AES f/Libya this helps protect Africa and gives Germany a huge ipc boom going on into the game.  However, its very difficult to say if Germany will be able to afford this in Europe without risking EEuro so in general I’d say that the best move is to simply kack the bb against the Med bb and concentrate air in the UkSz while using the transport to landgrab Cauc or whatever.