Turn one attacks that must not fail

@Marshmallow:

I’ve been pondering the turn one attacks that absolutely cannot fail – i.e., if these attacks fail you should concede and start a new game. This is my list so far:

1. G1 Paris attack – yes, you can let Italy mop up, but it changes the whole dynamic of the game. Germany has lost a lot of resources and is deprive the Paris income. At best you now have to give Italy a large role in the attack on Russia which gives you a severe disadvantage because you now have to use an Italian sacrificial attack to soften up Moscow and then two-punch with Germany, and at worse you’ve lost the game.
2. G1 sea zone 110 attack – in this case, absolute success means destroying the fleet with no aircraft lost. If you leave ships alive or lose multiple aircraft, it changes the whole dynamic of the game. Is it worth a restart though? Probably not unless you lost three or more aircraft and left ships alive.
3. J1 attack on Yunnan – if your J1 attack on Yunnan fails, is it a total catastrophe? My opinion is yes. This rises to the level of “Japan will never be able to win” in my opinion.
4. C1 attack on Yunnan – if you lose this attack, India will fail on J3 with absolute certainty barring insanely fluky die rolls (by “insanely fluky” I mean “you get 12 antiaircraft hits when Japan goes in and Japan misses its entire first round of attacks”). Losing this attack is an utter disaster for the Allies.
5. UK1 sea zone 96 battle – this is so bad that when my opponents fail I ask them if they want to continue the game. The whole dynamic in the Med changes. The UK really cannot hold Egypt and secure the Middle East if this attack fails.

I’d been thinking about this too. in my experience, France needs to fall by by I1, not necessarily in G1. And I agree on the J1 & C1 attacks on Yunnan. But the others aren’t gamebreakers.

I also want to highlight a danger with looking at battles this way. If some battles become established win-or-startover battles, players might start to cut corners on those attacks, knowing that they’ll just restart the game if they fail. That’s risky to me. Yes, France is designed to fall G1, but you still have to take in enough to win it. If Germany tries to spread itself thin by attacking too many territories, the player should have to live with those consequences, just as the opponent would have to live with them if the gambit pays off.

If the J1 attack on Yunnan fails, what is the main problem?

Good question. China producing artillery is a pesky situation - but that’s all. No real problem imho.

@ShadowHAwk:

Apparently it was the land based torpedo bombers that pulled the japanese CAP down so that they where not in position to block the US dive bombers that did all the damage.

If the movie was accurate (which may be a big if), it was mainly the Devastator torpedo bombers from CV-8 (Hornet IIRC) which caused this.

@simon33:

If the J1 attack on Yunnan fails, what is the main problem?

In a traditional game with no bid, Japan can easily recover from a failed J1 attack.  If there is a bid and the Allies can put extra focus on the Pacific theater, Russia can put in a couple ground units + 2 planes, China can stack 13 infantry + a plane, and India can declare war bringing in 2 infantry and 3 planes.  That is a mighty stack in Yunnan:

16 infantry/mechs
1 tank
2 tacs
6 fighters

Assuming that Japan just focuses everything on J2 against Yunnan, they likely will have
3 infantry
4 artillery
11 fighters
8 tacs
2 bombers

Japan should win if done properly but will likely lose ~12 planes.  Attacks on the money islands and Philippines gets delayed for another turn so their income is bad for an additional round.

If you are playing a balanced mod game, Japan is already struggling to ever capture India because it must leave ~7 ground units to stop Chinese insurrections.  Give China an additional 3 artillery and they can launch a strong counterattack around Chi6 aimed at Manchuria.  It could be impossible to stop that attack AND keep pushing towards India.

I think the theory is (just guessing here, not necessarily agreeing or anything mind you!) that if Japan doesn’t take Yunnan round 1 the allies can stack a concentrated defense there.

Not sure if that’s what they meant, not even saying that’s a good idea.  Just my theory on their statement.

The Burma Rd is open C1 & C2 (assuming UK1 DOW). By J3, Japan should have taken either Szechwan via Kweichow or Yunnan itself. They can also hit Burma and India but that normally is a bit slower.

ABH, did you mean with an unprovoked DOW by the UK on UK1? If the UK did that, I’d be leaping for joy. You’re assuming that some of the USSR mobile units moved towards China USSR1 and the planes flew back to Moscow or east, but let’s go with that. Japan is probably better off to focus on Kwangtung, Malaya and the money islands. They can even keep the NO for FIC! I don’t really think attacking Yunnan J2 if they stacked it with all that would be a good move. Hit UK_Pac!

Now as for Italian rage, that looks even worse in BM. The British tank should be the last unit taken as a casualty in this particularly, because it can be used to block Vichy. As allies, I’d prefer blocking Vichy with an amphibious assault from SZ109 on Normandy if that doesn’t happen. You can’t really do that combined with Taranto though.

Let’s go back to OOB though, I submit that you should still lose the British tank last if you have the least inkling that Italian rage might be tried. Let’s say that you lose it though. You can still strafe Northern Italy with 5 fighters, 1 tac, 1SB, which wins 55%. Would that be worth it? Calculator doesn’t think so. You do likely force them to decide whether to preserve the bomber in the first round, and if they do, they’ve weakened their defence. If they lose the bomber you can retreat unless you’ve rolled well but you’ve lost on average 3 planes to kill one.

EDIT: Oops, the Gib fighter can’t reach Northern Italy and land in France. But the tank also attacks on a 3 and the AA Guns still get 6 shots. With neither tank or fighter, the attack drops to 30% and -24 TUV swing.

Dang that’s a great point Simon.  Why not turn the tables on Italy!

As I was saying, this happened to me in a live game, and now im regretting not doing either the Paris stack or the Rome attack, at least just to try this.  Its an opening only the Axis can give you in attempting Italy Rage, one that (based on our analysis here) would actually be very likely to cost them the game!  Since its a novel (but dangerous) gambit, it seems like a born loser…

The Allies certainly have the option for waiting until turn 2 before stacking Yunnan if Japan fails on J1.  The Chinese will easily have enough units to retake the territory and likely will just use minimal forces if Japan did not issue a DOW on J2.  at the end of their Chi2 turn, they easily could have 14 infantry + 6 art + 1 fighter stacked in Szechwan.  That is an impressive army against the weak Axis forces in Asia.

If this is a no-bid / non-mod game, the Axis still can come back to win the game by capturing Moscow or heading down into the oilfields.  I don’t think that I could come back for a win with BM rules.