**By “not defending Egypt”, do you then mean you will not place the mIC there on UK1 . In that case, Germany has achieved its goal of deterring UK from placing the mIC in Egypt on UK-1 !!! Was that not the goal of Ram-Rod in the first place?! I mean its there on the Title/Subject. **
Ok, so in that event you won’t attack Egypt and expend the Luftwaffe? Sounds wise. But you’ve still put yourself behind the 8 ball by not taking down the SZ110 fleet.
If they do build the IC, you’ll hammer it as much as necessary to be confident that you’ll clean up the survivors as Italy.
Why wouldn’t the UK do a Taranto raid? I notice that you commented in Reply #2 that you want Taranto. Why? Unless there is an unlikely failure, you can’t use any fleet to support an attack. If one Italian TT survives UK1 as it usually does, perhaps you can keep it out of combat movement/combat and land some additional troops in Alexandria. Most likely this would be combined with an Ehtiopian crush.
Let’s look at where the scenario of Taranto, Ethiopia, TT used to assault Greece and IC placed on Egypt leaves things G2:
Alexandria: 3inf 1art 1mec 1arm. German planes coming to land.
Egypt: 2ANZAC inf, 2UK inf, 1art, 1arm.
Malta: Fighter, Tac, Strat Bomber.
Ethiopia: Mec and art probably.
Let’s say that the German planes attack Egypt until everything is dead, losing an average 2 1/6 planes on the first round. Probably acceptable if overwhelming enough force is applied.
UK2: Mec drives back. 3inf are placed in Egypt, minimum. ftr and tac land on Egypt. Perhaps strat for fodder. Perhaps Ethiopia survivors are carried back by TT but let’s assume not. DD moves up to prevent bombardment.
I2, amphibious+land assault on Egypt is:
Attackers: 4inf 1mec 1art 2arm 1strat 3ftrs
Defenders: 3inf 1mec 1arm 1ftr 1tac
Well over 90% of taking the IC and with enough left over to defend Egypt.
All of this assumes no additional support from anywhere else such as the SZ110 fleet.
If you remove the amphibious troops, it’s 75% to take the territory without losing planes first.
Perhaps this is the scenario MeinHerr is referring to?
Note: They might not do Tobruk if there are 2 fighters but if they don’t do Taranto I don’t see why they wouldn’t. It’s a 57% attack. Perhaps this is what you mean by you want a Taranto because it largely precludes a Tobruk. Tobruk with no planes vs 2 planes likely leaves 1art 1arm 2ftr.
If you don’t do the Ethiopia crush or the Tobruk crush, the Ethiopian force will walk up to Sudan and Tobruk to Alexandria. The Ethiopia force in Sudan will be attacked by a reasonable player, probably with 1inf 1art 1strat bomber. 75% to the UK.
That leaves an I2 attack of Egypt, without amphibious troops
Attacker: 3inf 1mec 1art 1arm 3ftr 1sb
Defender: 1inf 1mec 1ftr 1tac 1sb.
So it seems that MeinHerr’s strategy is plausible, although at what cost? Perhaps the UK will move most of their troops to Sudan when they notice the Luftwaffe gathering. Or move most of the troops into Alexandria. Let’s look at the second possibility and the Italian attack on Alexandria I1; assuming the inf and AAA on Malta is also collected:
Attacker: 3inf 1mec 1art 1arm 2ftr 1sb
Defender: 4inf 1mec 2art 1arm 1aaa
That attack is 74% to the Italians but will only leave land units alive if planes are taken as casualties or rolls are more than a bit above average. This also leaves the Italians in Sudan for UK2.
With a determined defence, it seems that the IC can be defended for the first couple of rounds with a Taranto so long as things go to plan for the UK, although it requires some sacrifice.
In reply #2 , i mentioned that I love to see a Taranto ( with the mIC in Egypt) , when RamRod is in place for 2 reasons:
A) Because there is 1 FTR (Malta) and 1 TB ( CV) , that cannot land in Egypt. Hence Egypt is left weaker , when the “Rod” - German Airstrafe on G2 with 12-13 planes happens. More Luftwaffe would survive.
B) If the G2 survivors are substantial… then on G3 , they could take out the UK Med fleet (with a possible I-2 hit on it)
[[color=navy]b]But the important point is… if Taranto is done, when the RamRod play has been set-up, Egypt (with or without) an mIC WILL FALL! With mIC is always better!!
Without mIC, is upto the German player, whether it is worth it or not to airstrafe Egypt (ie: Sometimes Egypt TR takes Greece or hits Ethiopia etc…. which means even weaker Egypt) and maybe a good deal.
If the Egypt force is moves to Transjordan and Egypt is abandoned… then Syria can be taken by Italians… and the Luftwaffe will hit the Transjordan force and land in Syria.
Italy will still take Egypt on I2
If you place the UK forces in Alexandria on UK1 (enough that Italy cannot kill it) and block Greece and Malta SZ , then Italy kills blockers on I1, then Germany will just kill the Alexandria forces on G2 and land in Tobruk… , Italy marches into Alexandria on I2 , and takes Egypt on I3 .
There are other possibilities too… but … folks will get there, when they try and play it.