@Warwick:
I play Global War '39 from HBG so I have lost a lot of my memory on Global '40 but I do not see how Italy is in trouble. This is most likely due to me forgetting the surrender conditions on Italy.
However looking at the troops strengths
Southern Italy
INF - 14
FTR - 2 or 3
MECH - 3
ARTY - 1
AA - 4
US
INF - 10
MECH - 3
ARTY - 5
ARM - 2
FTR -2 (1 in reserve)
TAC - 1 ( 1 in Reserve)
Lift = 8 (4 in reserve) transport lift capacity
Since Italy moves before the US Italy can have an additional 10 INF on the Italian Penisula, depending on Strat Bomber action. Italy also has Africa nearly empty of UK troop and several options to expand their IPC income.
What am I missing?
US has 4 carries with a total of 6 fighters and 2 TB’s. however, they can only use 5 fightes and 1 TB in their next turn to attack Italy.
Italy has 3 fighters.
US goes before Italy so they can attack Southern Italy. Germany can send 6 inf from North Italy into South Italy.
Italian/German fleet is very weak.
When Southern Italy is lost, the Italians can’t counter and lose their income to US or UK.
Italy has a huge advantage in Africa (south of Egypt) to rob the UK’s income. However, they must be carefull not to lose Egypt to the Allies.