I’m in two minds about what I’d do as Axis against that gambit.
Option 1:
Hammer SZ92 fleet and retreat once the carrier’s damaged, take Algeria, find something to do with the other transport. Germany finishes off the fleet, landings its ftrs/TBs on Algeria. If I’ve used subs to take down the SZ91 cruiser G1 and they’ve both survived, as they do 5 in 7, they could support the attack but more likely a UK DD stood outside in SZ91 to finish these off with air support. So realistic combat losses after one round of combat are:
Italy - dent on BB, ftr, sub & DD.
UK from Italy: dent on CV, Cruiser, DD, ftr. Or perhaps they’re hip to your jive and lose another ftr instead of the Cruiser.
The remaining UK force can be taken down quite easily by 1tb 2sb 3ftr (80%) at the cost of 3ftr 1tb
One funny addition to this assault would be an amphibious on Gibraltar, assuming it has no land troops and no extra planes. If the UK scrambles to meet it, that strips the SZ92 fleet of plane(s). If the US isn’t at war, this is conceivably not a suicide mission.
In fact, the Italian fighters can only come in if Germany has taken down Southern France, which is not a move I greatly like.
Option 2:
Amphibiously assault Gibraltar. Problem seems to be that you can’t in any way provide plane support unless you send in a CV.
Option 3:
Put down destroyer blockers SZ91. I guess this costs you 8 per turn and is only useful if you’re determined to do a Sea Lion.
Let’s scrub option 3. I can see how Sea Lion is less attractive if you have to do that.