After opening round, if you keep an AAA instead of an Infantry, you are gambling a lesser chance to hit one plane, 1/6 or below 1/6 (1/8 or 1/10), against a 2/6 odds of killing an enemy unit, attacker’s choice.
Correct, but isn’t this the true quintessence of war and battle ? As a commander you have to gamble, as there is no sure thing in combat. As yourself point out every day, the A&A game is all about math. And the element of math in this game is so strong that even some random luck in a local battle is not enough to even out the math. But open a history book, and you will see the most crazy outcome in real world battles. Outcomes so unbelieveable it can not be reenacted in this A&A game. Now try to do the Japanese attack on Singapore in the A&A battle board, let one single Japanese infantry unit attack a Brit stack of 5 inf, 1 Art, 1 Tank and 2 Fighter units, and see if this one infantry are able to kill all the Brit units with no loss, because that is what happened in the real world in 1940. In a real battle, the firepower from rifles and guns are math, like in A&A, but all this is suddenly nullified by abstract values like morale, fighting spirit, surprise, and not to mention defenders that suddenly get a nervous breakdown and escape in panic, just by the look of an enemy in the horizon. Now this is why the designer put dice in the equation. So to answer your question, ditch the math and give us more gamble, man