German attack on Karelia

Why, that’s a nice strat MadScientist!

Not quite as mad as the name hints afterall  :-D

i’m not as big a fan of the Jap mainland IC as i used to be.  The 2 trns that you may purchase will help you land troops on the mainland more quickly (4 inf vs. 3), as well they will give you more flexibility in deploying to ALA vs. SFE, Africa etc.  Finally they may provide more cannon-fodder in the event of an unnatural aggression by allied forces

You are wrong on your Russian totals (probably by assuming that Russia attacks Eastern or Ukraine)

Russia can have…  UP TO 36 INF IN KARELIA for G3!  Plus 3-4 armor, plus 2 figs.  Plus allied forces.  Remember, US CAN have INF on the ground in Karelia by US2 if they choose.

You are also playing Japan in a manner that makes them VERY vulnerable.  By taking India and China, you leave an open slice from Sinkiang to Burma to Kwangtung.  Against the Yakut Stack (which could be augmented by Russian AF), you have only at most 5 figs, a bomber, and 4 INF (assuming all other land forces used for the China and India strikes).  And I am going to be honest… you leave Japan’s fleet THAT exposed, I am coming after it as the US in US1, sinking your fleet, and making Japan have to delay their main push in Asia ANOTHER round befor ethey get tranny back-up for their 3 unit Manchuria factory.  While my sub, carrier and fig (perhaps a second fig also) sink your Japan fleet, my BB and Tranny start the southern island hopping I posted about elsewhere, quickly reaching your soft under-belly:  Burma.

Fine Point:  In your Africa Strategy as posted, you failed to blitz French Equatorial for an extra IPC (and more importantly removing 1 IPC from UK)

Also, you are putting too much faith in Germany’s Air Force.  You WILL lose a number of aircraft to the UK fleet on G1, probably 2-3.  So you have HALF of the initial AF to support your Karelia attack.

Let’s look at the revised numbers in Karelia:
Russia:  36 +/- INF, 3 tanks (leave 1 in Yakut), 2 figs.  Total 41 pieces with a defensive point value of 86
Above includes NO allied forces, not even UK figs.
Germany:  Now this is the ABSOLUTE maximum you can have.  It assumes NO forces lost prior to your attack on G3
INF:  27 INF; 15 tanks; 5 figs; 1 bmb.  That is it, that is your builds plus ALL starting units that could reach (exception of the 1 tank you specified went to Libya).
Total 48 pieces with an attack value of 91.

Even assuming a BEST POSSIBLE scenario for Germany, this is a CLOSE fight.  In reality, with half your AF laying at the bottom of the UK sea zone, loses from your assault on Ukraine, etc. this is a fight that decimates Germany in the move immediately preceeding UK being able to land forces with the navy they re-built in UK2, and that the US has a full tranny fleet ready to unload as well.

Even if you win, Germany loses so much territory, and will have lost so many forces, that they will never recover.  And they won;t have anywhere near enough forces to press their hard-won advantage (IF they win) against Russia’s build of 8 INF in R4.

Wow, I’m glad the forum warned me a new message had been posted. Exactly what I was going to say ncswitch, thank you.

@aaFiendish:

Wow, I’m glad the forum warned me a new message had been posted. Exactly what I was going to say ncswitch, thank you.

No problem!  I have learned a LOT here the past 5 weeks or so :-)

It’s a fine enough way to wittle down the russians, sure, but japan still isn’t going to roll in until at least turn 5, when the other allies are kicking it around drinking vodka. Germany at the end of this is going to be where it normally is, begging japan to save it.

The most glaring oversight is egypt. Round 1 you are counterattacked by england, no more africa for you. What did you attack egypt with, by the way? I assume no fighters, because they wouldn’t be able to reach western europe where you wish to stack them all. If you are attacking with one inf and 1 armor, you only have a 50% shot at taking it to begin with. At the end of round 1 you have 11 inf, 3 armor in eastern europe. There’s a few options russia can do in round 2, here are two.

1. If it is feeling a little giggly, it can attack eastern europe with everything, likely taking with 11 infantry, 3 armor. They get smacked around in the counterattack, and you take back with about 2 inf, 4 armor. Then next round they attack with 8 inf + 1 arm + 2 fighters, which you counter again, and on and on. The RUwould probably at least throw an inf + fighter into ukraine, or try for it with caucus infantry and one karelia infantry in the 2nd round. The third round norway is taken from you by allies rejoicing in a distracted german airforce.
2. A more conservative approach. Attack norway with 3 armor, 1 fighter, 3 inf (or more since the germans are being pussycats), likely taking with 1 inf. Attack ukraine with 2 inf and a fighter. This leaves karelia with 23 inf at the end of round 2.

Lets go with the conservative approach. In round 3 germany attacks ukraine with everything, and smites it good. It takes with 9 inf, 3 armor.

Russia strafes ukraine with a bunch of inf, armor, planes, retreating with about 18 and leaving an armor or two lying around. If germany wants, they can push into the caucus, at which point russia salivates over exposed armor, really salivates. At the end of R3, Russia has at LEAST 26 inf, 4 armor, 4 fighters. They also have any extra inf from norway. At this point, germany has a 80% chance of blowing its wad, 20% chance of taking karelia. If they attack with everything and lose, the game is lost to them.  If all you want is a 20% chance though, go for it. Even if you win, the UK will be in a position to counterattack this round, and probably even the US. I assume you ignored their build in the uk seas in G2? If not you will have killed a few fighters, bringing your chances down to almost nill on karelia.

Forgot about the bid part. I would probably still counter you as england with 3 inf and a fighter, which ought to do the trick. I usually don’t mind feeding india to the japanese.

The only time I would attack KArelia is if the Russian player is careless and leaves it lightly defended or the Japanese player has already cleaned up six or so Russian AP.  Not sure what a bid is.