# G1 SBR

• Then it is settled.    The name of the Operation?

Operation Sea LOIN.

No no no.
Operation Operation Eagle Attack  ( Unternehmen Adlerangriff)

That was the original name the germans used for their air attacks against the UK. Sounds only fair we reuse the name as it sounds nice.

• well it sounds better than Fall Krautenblitz, which was my backup suggestion….

• When I said 5 fights at 80%, I was only using that as an example with simple math of how events with low probability will occur if you play often enough.  The actual probabilities for success in this scenario are a little more grim:
(Note, I listed the stats here accumatively.  So in SZ 111, for example, it’s not 87% of killing only his destroyer, but the combined probabilities of also killing his cruiser, and of killing his cru and BB as well, and of his cru, BB, and fig.)

SZ 106:                                              92% killing his destroyer, 88% also killing his transport
SZ 109:  if he doesn’t scramble              67% keeping both subs
if he scrambles all 4                65% winning with at least 1 plane left, 45% winning with at least 2 planes left
8% mutual annihilation
28% he’ll have ≥ 1 plane left, 15% ≥ 2 planes
SZ 111:  w/ 2 figs, 1 tac, he scrambles    93% keeping ≥ 2 planes, 63% keeping all planes
(1 round of combat)                  87% killing his destroyer, 57% killing his cruiser, 22% making a 4th hit
SBR interception:                                  93% keeping ≥ 2 planes, 58% keeping all planes
(same odds for England)            42% killing ≥ 1 plane, 7% killing ≥ 2 planes
SBR actual: w/ 2 SBs + tac                    93% keeping ≥ 2 planes, 58% keeping all planes
w/ 2 SBs only                          97% keeping ≥ 1 SB, 70% keeping both.

SZ 112: England attacks your fleet
(you both have dBB, E has 3 fighters)
E 2 cru, G lost 0 planes in 111      73% survival  77%  if you bring your Hungarian fig up to W.Germ instead of Rome
E 3 cru, G lost 0 planes              48%              53%
E 2 cru, G lost 1 plane                77%              80%
E 3 cru, G lost 1 plane                53%              58%
E 2 cru, G lost 2 planes                49%              77%
E 3 cru, G lost 2 planes                24%              53%
SZ 111 mutual annihilation          42%              75%
The only variable that goes into it is the G1 111 fight.  One fighter from 109 should land on the carrier (two if one your planes dies), but if he scrambles there, he has no chance of attacking your fleet anyways.  Of the 111 fight, the biggest variable is whether or not you kill England’s cruiser, and you only have a 57% at that.  Losing your planes is not that big a factor since if you lose two planes you can supplement them with 109 and your fighter from Hungary.  (Of course that leaves Italy vulnerable to a Taranto, but you can read other posts about whether Taranto in this case would even be a good idea.  I’ll argue that it wouldn’t be.)  But he only has a 7% chance of hitting two.  And you can’t lose more than 2 planes in a single round of combat; England only has 4 defending units. Note that the odds of your fleet surviving actually increase if you lose just one plane.  Your tac has to land on the carrier for lack of movement, but if it dies, you can replace him with a fighter.

The upshot of this is if England’s cruiser survives, he has less than even odds of destroying your fleet, but it would be close.  However, destroying your fleet doesn’t prevent sealion, because so long as you have a sub, probably 2, he’ll kill off his navy before he kills the RAF.  Your fleets are simply more vulnerable to a counterattack if America is prepared.  On the other hand, if England killed your fleet and moved his Med fleet over to 92 to block you in 110 on G3, then sealion would get dicey, and your 1 or 2 subs in 109 would have to be augmented by more Luftwaffe than you’d be happy to commit there, especially since you’ve already lost at least 5, more depending on how your G1 fights rolled.  Though he wouldn’t have any either.  I haven’t played this scenario out enough to know exactly how many planes you need to take London when he loses his planes as well and is also limited by reduced production.

For the sake of argument, let’s say as England you wouldn’t feel comfortable attacking the fleet and leaving London vulnerably RAF-less against the sealion unless after G1 you had the extra cruiser, didn’t lose any of your planes (including your french fig), and then only if you killed at least 3 of his planes (fig/tac/orSB) between SZ 111 and SBR.  The probability of killing at least 3 planes is 16%.  (I added all the mutually exclusive probabilities listed above for every outcome that would result in 3 killed planes.)  That combined with 43% of keeping your cruiser and 58% for not losing any planes in the interception gives you 4% of getting the favorable conditions to attack. But then you’ll only have between a 42-47% chance of winning (depending on which German planes died).  So if those are the conditions for a fleet attack, then Germany has less than a 2% chance of losing it.  You can tweak those odds depending on if you’re comfortable with Germany only losing 2 planes, but I’m guessing they’re not much more promising.  They’re a lot more promising though if your conditions open up by saying screw the sealion, I don’t care how much luftwaffe he has, let it happen; I’ll make him pay for investing so much in transports with Russia.  But then Germany has choices as to how many transports he needs to buy or gets to move a lot more troops over to Russia from London afterwards.

All in all, I’m more optimistic about this strategy than I was in my earlier post.  I just needed to broaden what I considered an acceptable outcome in the G1 fights.  It still needs to be playtested though to see how the actual sealion itself compares to the traditional method when accounting for possible plane/fleet trades and IC reduction.  Actually, the biggest hiccup in the plan isn’t in any Luftwaffe/RAF fights, but in SZ 106.  There’s an 8% chance you don’t kill his destroyer, and then your subs in 109 are sitting ducks, and then you can’t kill his fleet.

• When I said 5 fights at 80%, I was only using that as an example with simple math of how events with low probability will occur if you play often enough.  The actual probabilities for success in this scenario are a little more grim:
(Note, I listed the stats here accumatively.  So in SZ 111, for example, it’s not 87% of killing only his destroyer, but the combined probabilities of also killing his cruiser, and of killing his cru and BB as well, and of his cru, BB, and fig.)

SZ 106:                                               92% killing his destroyer, 88% also killing his transport
SZ 109:  if he doesn’t scramble               67% keeping both subs
if he scrambles all 4                 65% winning with at least 1 plane left, 45% winning with at least 2 planes left
8% mutual annihilation
28% he’ll have ≥ 1 plane left, 15% ≥ 2 planes
SZ 111:  w/ 2 figs, 1 tac, he scrambles     93% keeping ≥ 2 planes, 63% keeping all planes
(1 round of combat)                   87% killing his destroyer, 57% killing his cruiser, 22% making a 4th hit
SBR interception:                                   93% keeping ≥ 2 planes, 58% keeping all planes
(same odds for England)             42% killing ≥ 1 plane, 7% killing ≥ 2 planes
SBR actual: w/ 2 SBs + tac                     93% keeping ≥ 2 planes, 58% keeping all planes
w/ 2 SBs only                           97% keeping ≥ 1 SB, 70% keeping both.

SZ 112: England attacks your fleet
(you both have dBB, E has 3 fighters)
E 2 cru, G lost 0 planes in 111      73% survival   77%  if you bring your Hungarian fig up to W.Germ instead of Rome
E 3 cru, G lost 0 planes               48%               53%
E 2 cru, G lost 1 plane                 77%              80%
E 3 cru, G lost 1 plane                 53%              58%
E 2 cru, G lost 2 planes                49%              77%
E 3 cru, G lost 2 planes                24%              53%
SZ 111 mutual annihilation           42%              75%
The only variable that goes into it is the G1 111 fight.  One fighter from 109 should land on the carrier (two if one your planes dies), but if he scrambles there, he has no chance of attacking your fleet anyways.  Of the 111 fight, the biggest variable is whether or not you kill England’s cruiser, and you only have a 57% at that.  Losing your planes is not that big a factor since if you lose two planes you can supplement them with 109 and your fighter from Hungary.  (Of course that leaves Italy vulnerable to a Taranto, but you can read other posts about whether Taranto in this case would even be a good idea.  I’ll argue that it wouldn’t be.)  But he only has a 7% chance of hitting two.  And you can’t lose more than 2 planes in a single round of combat; England only has 4 defending units. Note that the odds of your fleet surviving actually increase if you lose just one plane.  Your tac has to land on the carrier for lack of movement, but if it dies, you can replace him with a fighter.

The upshot of this is if England’s cruiser survives, he has less than even odds of destroying your fleet, but it would be close.  However, destroying your fleet doesn’t prevent sealion, because so long as you have a sub, probably 2, he’ll kill off his navy before he kills the RAF.  Your fleets are simply more vulnerable to a counterattack if America is prepared.  On the other hand, if England killed your fleet and moved his Med fleet over to 92 to block you in 110 on G3, then sealion would get dicey, and your 1 or 2 subs in 109 would have to be augmented by more Luftwaffe than you’d be happy to commit there, especially since you’ve already lost at least 5, more depending on how your G1 fights rolled.  Though he wouldn’t have any either.  I haven’t played this scenario out enough to know exactly how many planes you need to take London when he loses his planes as well and is also limited by reduced production.

For the sake of argument, let’s say as England you wouldn’t feel comfortable attacking the fleet and leaving London vulnerably RAF-less against the sealion unless after G1 you had the extra cruiser, didn’t lose any of your planes (including your french fig), and then only if you killed at least 3 of his planes (fig/tac/orSB) between SZ 111 and SBR.  The probability of killing at least 3 planes is 16%.  (I added all the mutually exclusive probabilities listed above for every outcome that would result in 3 killed planes.)  That combined with 43% of keeping your cruiser and 58% for not losing any planes in the interception gives you 4% of getting the favorable conditions to attack. But then you’ll only have between a 42-47% chance of winning (depending on which German planes died).  So if those are the conditions for a fleet attack, then Germany has less than a 2% chance of losing it.  You can tweak those odds depending on if you’re comfortable with Germany only losing 2 planes, but I’m guessing they’re not much more promising.  They’re a lot more promising though if your conditions open up by saying screw the sealion, I don’t care how much luftwaffe he has, let it happen; I’ll make him pay for investing so much in transports with Russia.  But then Germany has choices as to how many transports he needs to buy or gets to move a lot more troops over to Russia from London afterwards.

All in all, I’m more optimistic about this strategy than I was in my earlier post.  I just needed to broaden what I considered an acceptable outcome in the G1 fights.  It still needs to be playtested though to see how the actual sealion itself compares to the traditional method when accounting for possible plane/fleet trades and IC reduction.  Actually, the biggest hiccup in the plan isn’t in any Luftwaffe/RAF fights, but in SZ 106.  There’s an 8% chance you don’t kill his destroyer, and then your subs in 109 are sitting ducks, and then you can’t kill his fleet.

Thing is that the UK cannot be comfortable either way. As they have to buy before they know the results of the battle in SZ112. And moving the med fleet also means that the italian fleet survives which opens up another set of options there.
You can deside if sea lion is still a vallid option after the UK did the battles. IT just might shake the game up a little.

• I’ve thought briefly about this idea but never really developed it. A few quick things:

I dislike attacking SZ109 - all those planes to take down 1 DD and 1 TT?
I dislike not attacking SZ91 - weakens Taranto or at least lets a DD and TT survive for Italy if SZ96 is not attacked with the Cruiser there.

If you modify it slightly to:
1BB, 1Sub, 1Ftr, 1Tac to SZ111 (even with a scramble)
1Ftr + 2SB to London
3Tac + 3Ftr to SZ110
2Sub to SZ91
2Sub to SZ106

This tends to promote scrambles in both SZ111 and SZ110 - therefore why not strip down the London raid to remove the fighter escort and bolster the SZ110 attack? Probability is that all three defending fighters will miss in the interception anyway (although the probability that both bombers survive is only 40%). Or you could send a sub to SZ110 and strip that from SZ91 (can’t strip it from SZ106). An interesting possibility is attacking SZ109 without fighter escort instead of SZ106. If any fighters join the combat they are then drawn off from defending against the SBR. That may indeed be the best way. You could even sink the DD. You really don’t want to retreat from SZ110 because the BB there is repaired UK1 without them having to react.

Attacking the naval base with a Tac doesn’t stop the BB in SZ110 from being repaired UK1 for a minimal expense.

• Operation Eagle Attack can certainly be tweaked, and you’ve offered a couple good suggestions.

But attacking 110 with only 3 fig/tac pairs is not a good idea.  You only have about a 20% chance of winning that fight if he scrambles, and even if you manage to win, you’ve lost 5 planes to his 3.  But more than likely, you’d lose 6 planes, he’d have one leftover, and his BB would repair.

As for all those planes in 109 just to kill a DD and TT, don’t forget that by killing his destroyer, you get to keep your sub(s) and immediately disrupt convoy.  Whereas leaving that destroyer to kill his cruiser results in an almost automatic loss of two subs in 91 on UK1.

Both bombers surviving an unintercepted SBR is ~70% (5/6*5/6) not 60%.  But on the other hand, the odds of 3 fighters intercepting at least one of them is ~42%, which isn’t insignificant.  Bombing the harbour with a tac made more sense when I thought you could use tacs as fodder against AAA, which was its primary purpose; hitting his harbour was just a fringe benefit if it worked.  I’ve since been corrected, and I’m now more in favor of sending a fig escort in.  It lowers my 112 fleet’s defense by 1 (defending with a tac instead of a fig) but I would just suck that chance up or leave Rome undefended if his 110 cruiser survived.

You may be on to something by not sending any planes into 109 and forcing England to choose between scrambling in 109, 110, 111, or intercepting.  (Though I would still need to send subs into 110) If nothing else, it creates a hard choice for him.  But whatever the choice, it means Germany is going to lose more planes than I’d be comfortable with.  As England, I would probably end up scrambling 1 in 109 and 3 in 110.  But that depends on who I’m playing and whether I think he’ll overcommit to an Atlantic build up.

• Yeah, I’m not completely happy with it either.

Regarding SZ91, I’d say that destroyer would normally be better off attacking the subs off Quebec which are already causing convoy disruption. I guess if one lives off Quebec and two live in SZ91 then it becomes a bit of a coin toss.

If London scrambles to SZ110 then they aren’t defending the industrial complex. In that event, I’d probably withdraw after one round. Although I’m in two minds about it being worth bringing in the fighter. Maybe I should have put “Devil’s Advocate” at the top of my last post. BTW, the 40% odds is of surviving against 3 interceptors and 2 AAA in a SBR.

Why can’t you lose the tac bomber if it’s raiding the naval base? I thought a twin attack on a naval base and IC was intercepted as a single group? Is that not correct? Indeed, the rules state that a single combat occurs per territory.

• The tac can serve as fodder for the interception, but for the bombing run each plane is called out and rolls against AAA one at a time. So while it can still (practically) ensure that both SBs will make it past the interception, the SBs still have a 30% chance of one or both of them getting shot down.  I thought the beauty of ShadowHAwk’s tweak of escorting with a tac vice fig was to almost guarantee a successful SBR at the cost of maybe a tac, but the whole strategy looks a little more grim now.  Incidentally, I understood the rule correctly when I first started playing, but after I saw that Triple A allowed you to choose your SBR hits, I assumed I had it wrong.  That’ll teach me how much to trust second hand sources.

• Still, I love the idea of doing something slightly useful rather than escorting with a fighter which goes home once the air battle is over.

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